Conflict Index Results: July 2023

How much conflict is occurring in the world?

Conflict is widespread and pervasive. ACLED collects data for more than 240 countries and territories in near real time, and the majority – 167 – saw at least one incident of political violence in the past 12 months. Over 139,000 political violence events were recorded worldwide during this period, resulting in a conservative estimate of more than 147,000 fatalities.

Analyzing the intensity, frequency, and form of violent events allows for further investigation into different levels of conflict. Drawing on the past year of data, the ACLED Conflict Index assesses levels of political violence according to four key indicators: deadliness, danger to civilians, geographic diffusion of conflict, and the number of active non-state groups (or fragmentation). Each country is ranked within each of these four indicators, which determines its overall ranking on the Index (see Methodology sidebar for more). A country’s place on the Index (see graphic below) represents its overall conflict level compared to other countries from July 2022 to June 2023.

Where is conflict happening?

Some level of conflict occurs in almost every country, but the highest levels are found in 50. These countries are ranked by the Index according to the four aggregated indicators, and categorized as ‘extreme,’ ‘high,’ or ‘turbulent.’ The top 50 ranked countries account for 97% of all political violence events recorded for the past 12 months.

The Index shows that conflict is widespread, but not equally distributed or present in the same form across all countries.

There are multiple types of conflict, from civil wars and insurgencies to cartel competition and social violence. The countries that rank highly on the ACLED Index differ substantially in the types of conflict and violence they experience, even while many share levels of deadliness, danger, diffusion, and fragmentation. Violence in Yemen looks very different from violence in Brazil. Colombia’s conflicts are not the same as Syria’s, although both have entered into a ‘post-civil war’ phase.

In the past 12 months, the most violent country measured by event count is Ukraine, averaging over 950 political violence incidents per week, and accounting for 36% of all political violence events occurring in the past year. Ukraine is also the deadliest, with over 36,000 recorded fatalities in the past year.

Myanmar is home to the highest number of non-state armed groups, where local militias have frequently emerged to defend communities and engage in the ongoing conflict. More than 1,500 distinct actors have been recorded, at 47% of all non-state armed groups active globally in the past 12 months. Each group in Myanmar, on average, is involved in eight violent events per year, but groups drastically vary in the level of violence they engage in.

The most widespread conflict in terms of geographic diffusion is in Palestine, where high levels of violence affected over 60% of its territory throughout the past year. While smaller countries are more likely to rank highly on this indicator, violence also remains highly diffuse in places like Syria, which registered high levels of conflict across 10% of the country over the past year.

Mexico is the country that is most dangerous for civilians: ACLED records more than 5,000 incidents of violence directly targeting civilians across the country over the past 12 months. The threats to many civilian communities in Mexico are higher than those even in more violent conflict contexts.

Countries with ‘extreme’ and ‘high’ levels of conflict share some key characteristics. Many are home to conflicts that are not traditional insurgencies, but still have more violent events and fatalities than countries experiencing active civil wars. The forms of conflict that are currently most common around the world look more like the violence patterns in Mexico and Myanmar, and less like traditional insurgencies where one group wrestles with a government for control or territory. Mexico, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil, and Iraq host violence levels that far exceed those associated with traditional wars. They also host multiple conflicts that differ in both targets and intended outcomes, and these conflicts do not often overlap. This means that governments frequently find themselves fighting multiple conflicts at once, and communities are exposed to varied types of violence.

Violence in countries experiencing ‘extreme’ and ‘high’ conflict levels typically also involves many active armed, organized groups. These groups fight each other as frequently as they clash with government security forces. Militias, rather than rebels, increasingly play a leading role in these conflicts.

Conflict is growing fastest in middle-income, democratizing countries. Middle-income countries are experiencing the greatest rise in conflict. Poverty is not a precursor to conflict, and wealth is not a guarantee of peace. In the graphic below, the top 50 countries in the ACLED Index are placed across the UN Human Development Index. As this comparison demonstrates, many countries with ‘extreme’ or ‘high’ levels of conflict are places with high and sustained levels of economic and social development.

Democracy does not protect countries from violent politics. In countries transitioning to democracy, or regressing from democracy, new forms of political competition can encourage conflict. Democratic shifts across the world have reduced the likelihood of traditional civil wars, and increased the likelihood of militia activity and political violence. Countries with “partly free” systems, according to Freedom House classifications, have elections, leader turnover and removal, inclusive representation, and other features of democracy, but often experience high levels of political violence, as shown in the graphic below.

Is conflict worsening or improving?

As of July, 19 countries have seen improvements to their ACLED Index rankings during the five-year period between mid-2018 and mid-2023, and 19 have seen worsening levels of conflict. Fourteen countries have remained in the ‘extreme’ or ‘high’ conflict level categories consistently, with no change between 2018 and 2023. Overall, of the 50 countries ranked at the top of the Index, over half (39) are experiencing sustained or escalating levels of conflict compared to 2018.