Conflict with Iran-backed factions is upending the US’ Iraq exit strategy

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On 19 March, the pro-Iran group Kataib Hezbollah announced that it was willing to suspend attacks on the United States embassy in Baghdad on the condition that Israel halt its strikes on parts of Beirut.¹ This announcement came amid a week of repeated attacks targeting the embassy. With these conditions unlikely to be met, Iraqi armed groups are poised to continue targeting US interests as long as the regional conflict persists. For the US, the current escalation reverses years of efforts to reduce its military presence in Iraq and undermines its strategy to contain Iranian influence by limiting the role of Iran-backed groups. 

Washington has long pressed Iraqi leaders to disarm the pro-Iran armed groups. But while these groups are formally integrated into the security forces through the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) umbrella group, the Iraqi caretaker government is struggling to assert its authority over them. Between 28 February and 16 March, Iraqi groups carried out over 65 missile and drone attacks (see map below), while another 65 attempted attacks were intercepted by US and allied forces. Nearly 60% of all attacks hit US and coalition sites, including military positions, diplomatic facilities, oil infrastructure, and other foreign-linked locations; the rest fell in open areas or struck civilian targets. 

In the first week of the conflict, factions focused mainly on sites in the Kurdistan region amid the US’ signals about mobilizing Iranian Kurdish groups near the border with Iran. Since March 7, the Iraqi groups have shifted toward targeting more high-profile sites, including the US embassy in Baghdad.

The US and Israel responded to this shift with increasingly deadly strikes that have killed senior figures from major groups such as Kataib Hezbollah, the Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades, and the Badr Organization. Since the beginning of the conflict, the US and Israel have conducted about 70 strikes targeting bases and military infrastructure connected to at least 15 armed groups and PMF units across Iraq, including in Babil and western areas near the Syrian border where key factions operate (see map above).

Pro-Iran groups appear willing to continue targeting US interests, aiming to keep pressure on Washington while showing they can still operate despite recent losses. For many of the Shiite armed groups, the Islamic Republic remains a political and ideological pillar and a key safeguard for their influence in Iraq. During the 12-day war in June 2025, they avoided confrontation with the US, preferring to preserve stability ahead of Iraq’s parliamentary elections, where escalation could have harmed their political influence.² This calculation now appears to have shifted as the stakes for the Iranian regime have risen. 

The current political deadlock over forming a new government, driven in part by US opposition to front-runner Nouri al-Maliki’s candidacy,³ has also fed into the broader conflict dynamics. Iraqi parties backing the nomination of al-Malki, who is widely seen as having close ties to Iran, have accused the US of interfering in Iraq’s national elections. Many of the groups involved in the escalation are tied to political parties with seats in parliament and are part of the Shiite Coordination Framework that selects the government, further blurring the line between political power and armed influence.⁴

Visuals produced by Ana Marco.