Conflict Watchlist 2023
Report
Conflict Watchlist 2023: Colombia
The security situation in Colombia is deteriorating with political violence and armed group activities.
The security situation in Colombia continued to deteriorate in 2022, with worsening political violence and increasing violence against civilians. Despite recent attempts by the new leftist government of President Gustavo Petro to engage with armed groups, Colombia continues to struggle under the strain of a deeply fragmented conflict landscape that supports a myriad of armed groups, including Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident groups, the National Liberation Army (ELN), and the Gulf Clan.
After decades of internal conflict and four years of dialogue, the FARC and the Colombian government signed a peace agreement in 2016. The accord led, among other things, to the demobilization and reintegration of more than 13,000 former members of the FARC into civilian life.1 Some FARC dissident groups refused to surrender their weapons, resuming their operations in Colombia and Venezuela and resorting to illegal economic activities. The FARC dissidents include some 23 groups, which have thus far refused to conclude peace agreements with the Colombian government.2 The ELN constitutes another major security threat after the FARC dissident groups. Formed in the 1960s, this transnational guerrilla group operates in both Colombia and Venezuela, allegedly receiving support from the Venezuelan government. The ELN has been active in at least two thirds of Colombia’s departments in recent years, generating criminal profits from the control of drug production and trafficking routes and illegal gold mining.3
Despite years of state security operations to bring down these groups, they have continued to engage in militant and criminal activities in Colombia.4 The Pacific Coast and the border with Venezuela form the epicenters of conflict in Colombia where armed groups contest drug trafficking routes and engage in other illegal economies, such as resource extraction. Among these areas, there is a particular concentration of violence in Cauca, Antioquia, Norte de Santander, and Valle del Cauca departments, where over half of reported fatalities occurred in 2022. In 2022, Cauca remained the department most affected by levels of violence in Colombia. ACLED records more than 100 armed clashes in Cauca in 2022, involving at least 10 distinct armed groups, including members of FARC dissident Carlos Patino Front, FARC dissident Dagoberto Ramos Front, and military forces. However, civilians suffered the largest burden of violence in Cauca: of the more than 400 reported fatalities in Cauca in 2022, the vast majority – 80% – were civilians directly targeted by armed groups. Among the most vulnerable to armed violence are farmers, workers, Indigenous groups, and Afro-Colombian ethnic groups.
In Antioquia, armed clashes mainly involved members of the Gulf Clan and the military forces of Colombia. However, unidentified armed groups were also significant drivers of political violence, engaging in deadly attacks on local farmers, teachers, and other civilians. The Gulf Clan, also referred to as the Gaitanist Self Defense Forces of Colombia, controls illegal economic activities in drug production zones, trafficking corridors, and processing laboratories, as well as engaging in illegal mining and extortion. In addition to Antioquia, the group is active in several departments, including Choco, Valle del Cauca, Santander, and in the cross-border areas between Colombia and Venezuela.5
Multiple non-state armed groups in the border region with Venezuela operate across the border, exploiting security gaps between the two countries. Much of this activity is centered in Norte de Santander, with notable activity also recorded in Arauca. Groups operating on both sides of the border include FARC dissident 10th Front, the ELN, FARC 28th Front, FARC Acacio Medina Front, and FARC Second Marquetalia. These armed groups engage in armed clashes and attacks targeting civilians as they compete over control of drug trafficking routes, crops for illicit use, and illegal mining.6 ACLED records over 220 reported fatalities in Norte de Santander in 2022.
What to watch for in 2023
The armed conflict in Colombia is multidimensional and complex, as shown by the fragmentation of armed groups following the 2016 comprehensive peace agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC. Although the Colombian government is taking steps toward peace with armed groups, the fragmented landscape of political violence in the country is unlikely to be solved in the short term. President Petro and Vice President Francia Marquez, who were sworn in in August 2022, announced that a critical goal for their government is to seek peace with all armed groups in Colombia. On 31 December 2022, the government issued a decree that would initiate a bilateral ceasefire, from 1 January to 30 June 2023, with five illegal armed organizations: the Self-Defense Conquerors of the Sierra Nevada (ACSN), the Gulf Clan, FARC Second Marquetalia Front, FARC 33rd Front, and the ELN.7 In addition, the decree mandated the suspension of military and police operations against members of the ELN participating in ongoing peace negotiations with the government. The decree also provided mechanisms for civil society and international organizations to monitor these peace mechanisms.8
Days later, however, the ELN announced that they had yet to agree to the ceasefire and that members of the group still needed to discuss the proposal with the Colombian government. Due to the position publicly assumed by the ELN, Petro’s government decided to suspend the legal effects of the bilateral ceasefire decree with the ELN. As of the time of writing, there has still been no agreement between the Colombian government and the ELN.9
Contrastingly, the FARC Second Marquetalia Front, the Gulf Clan, and ACSN have announced their commitment to the ceasefire. Meetings between these groups and the government are expected to take place in 2023 to advance peace talks.10 Should talks progress throughout the year, these developments could drive reductions in political violence in 2023, particularly in Antioquia, Chocó, Bolivar, Sucre, and Cordoba departments, where these groups are most notably active.
Meanwhile, the recent thawing of relations between the Colombian and the Venezuelan governments following years of non-engagement has the potential to influence political violence dynamics in the coming year. In January 2023, President Petro and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro promised to improve the living conditions of Colombians and Venezuelans in border regions. However, clashes between armed groups and abuses against civilians on the Colombia-Venezuela border – in some cases with the complicity of members of the Venezuelan security – are still significant.11 This is mainly due to the lack of a peace agreement with armed groups on both sides of the border, and the unwillingness of the Venezuelan government to control security forces on the border.
In addition to challenges regarding peace within Colombia, it is expected that Venezuelan refugees, migrants, and asylum seekers will continue to cross the border into Colombia due to ongoing political and economic turmoil in Venezuela. Since 2015, more than 7 million Venezuelans have fled the country and Colombia has received most of these migrants. It is estimated that close to 2.5 Venezuelan migrants are currently living in Colombia.12 Venezuelan migrants and locals from the border regions have been for years at the mercy of armed groups that extort, attack, displace, and exploit them for human trafficking networks or illegal economies. In 2022, suspected members of the ELN were behind the killings of at least eight Venezuelans across both Colombian and Venezuelan border states, including two local leaders from the Venezuelan Communist Party in Venezuela’s Apure and Bolivar states. Despite initial conversations between the governments of Colombia and Venezuela to address this issue, armed groups operating along the border will likely be a continued threat to civilians throughout 2023.
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