Conflict Watchlist 2024 | Yemen and the Red Sea: Rising Tensions Threaten Peace Process and International Security

The Houthis’ attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea and the subsequent responses overshadow the progress made in 2023 for peace in Yemen. After months of bilateral talks between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia to end the conflict that started eight years ago, a peace agreement seemed to be within reach. On 23 December 2023, the United Nations Special Envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, announced that representatives of the Houthi movement and the internationally recognized government committed to “a set of measures to implement a nationwide ceasefire.”¹ Among other provisions, the UN roadmap included the payment of public sector salaries, a resumption of oil exports, the opening of roads in Taizz and other provinces, and an end to restrictions on air and sea ports in Houthi-controlled areas.

The war in Yemen is estimated to have directly killed over 160,000 people since March 2015, when a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia intervened to restore the internationally recognized government ousted by the Houthis. A nationwide UN-mediated truce came into effect in April 2022 as a result of several compounding factors: an unprecedented military balance amid warring parties, a regional détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Riyadh’s desire to exit the war.¹ Meanwhile, Houthi and Saudi representatives started engaging in direct talks to build mutual trust, sidelining the fragmented anti-Houthi camp re-organized under the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC).

Overall, the truce has contributed to a significant de-escalation, with the activity of the warring parties decreasing by 70% in 2023 compared to the year prior. However, a low-intensity conflict has since surfaced, continuing to threaten civilian lives and uphold consistently severe violence. For instance, the share of violent events that targeted civilians more than doubled in 2023, with over 1,120 events recorded by ACLED last year alone. Behind these patterns are several factors, including the increasing repression of the Houthi-led Sanaa-based government against the last shreds of local opposition; the increased mobility spurred by the truce, which led to frequent landmine and explosive remnants of war incidents; and an over 55% increase in the violence against migrants attempting to cross the Yemen-Saudi border.

Alongside these domestic developments, the Houthis have increasingly shifted their strategic focus toward the Red Sea. Since at least September 2022, Houthi leaders have made explicit threats to international sea routes, amid reports of a renewed militarization on Yemen’s western coast.¹ Yet, the outbreak of the conflict in Gaza, on 7 October 2023, offered the group an opportunity to demonstrate its stated support for Palestine, which resulted in a sequence of attacks against Israeli targets. Since 19 October 2023, the Houthis launched 14 drone and missile attacks toward Israel’s southern port of Eilat, mostly intercepted by Israel and the United States. In a further escalation, they declared Israeli-linked vessels¹ and ships heading to Israeli ports¹ as military targets on the ‘Gaza front,’ leading to one successful hijacking and 19 drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels in November and December, 2023.

Historically, the Red Sea maritime axis — stretching from the Bab al-Mandab strait to the Channel of Suez, two strategic chokepoints for global trade — has been characterized by maritime safety, despite occasional piracy incidents originating from the Horn of Africa.¹ The war in Yemen turned this region into an active conflict area. ACLED records over 250 political violence and interception events affecting the Red Sea and its ports since 2015. However, major disruptions to shipping lanes occurred only as a result of the recent Houthi escalation.

Approximately 30% of container trade¹ and 12% of global oil¹ transit through the Red Sea. The risk of Houthi attacks prompted companies to redirect half of the vessels that regularly navigate this route through Southern Africa.¹ Longer journeys boosted freight rates and reduced global shipping capacity, also causing a severe impact on Israel’s economy.¹ But they also affected Yemen, drastically reducing maritime traffic through the port of Aden and driving an increase in insurance war premiums.¹