Report
The Future of ‘Stop the Steal’: Post-Election Trajectories for Right-Wing Mobilization in the United States
Analysis on post-election trends in US right-wing mobilization and associated risks.
Reviewing new ACLED data for the past seven months of political violence and demonstration activity across the US, this report analyzes key trends in right-wing mobilization and the potential for violence in the post-election period. Access data directly through the US Crisis Monitor. Definitions and methodology decisions are explained in theUS Crisis Monitor FAQs and the US methodology brief. For more information, please check the full ACLED Resource Library.
Introduction
More than 150 million Americans cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election, setting a new record even as the COVID-19 crisis intensified (CNBC, 4 November 2020). Despite the heightened risk of political violence going into the vote (NPR, 22 October 2020), government officials, civil society organizations, and local communities organized to address the threat, with limited interference on Election Day and a peaceful resolution by the end of the week, as former Vice President Joe Biden was projected by national media to be the victor (VOA, 7 November 2020).
The results were immediately disputed. Tensions increased as it became apparent that a decisive outcome would be delayed beyond Election Day due to logistical challenges posed by the pandemic.... (truncated for brevity)
Potential trajectories for right-wing mobilization and violence in the post-election period
| Trajectory | Likelihood (Short-term) | Likelihood (Medium-term) | Violence Potential | Highest Risk Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Militia groups | Low | Moderate | Low to Moderate | Locations where mobilization is linked to local militia groups with histories of high levels of activity (e.g. Lansing, Michigan) |
| Decentralized armed individuals | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Locations experiencing left-wing protests or where gun restrictions are under consideration by local or state governments (e.g. Richmond, Virginia) |
| Violent sole perpetrators | High | High | High | Areas that have sustained uprising activity or enduring local political tension (e.g. Portland, Oregon) |
| Unarmed mass mobilization | Very High | Very High | Low | Areas where election fraud is perceived by local and national actors (e.g. Atlanta, Georgia) |
Shifting Trends: Pre- and Post-Election
Dominant Protest Movements
Demonstrations surged over the summer ahead of the general election, particularly in the immediate aftermath of George Floyd’s killing by police in Minneapolis. Floyd’s death at the end of May sparked... (truncated for brevity)
Against this backdrop, demonstrations associated with the BLM movement have been disproportionately met with government intervention compared to other types of protests.... (truncated for brevity)
Armed Group Activity
Militias and street movements have become increasingly active in right-wing demonstrations this year. Over the summer, right-wing militias primarily mobilized in response to the BLM movement... (truncated for brevity)
Conclusion
Pro-Trump and right-wing organizing has changed significantly since the election, and analysis of ACLED data indicates that it will likely continue to evolve going into the inauguration and initial stages of the Biden administration... (truncated for brevity)
© 2020 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All rights reserved.
