Iran: Where and how US-Israeli strikes are harming civilians

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Deadly strikes on civilian locations, including a primary school in Minab and a sports hall in Lamerd, have come to symbolize the human cost of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. But such cases of civilian sites struck without a clear military objective do not, so far, define the broader pattern of the US-Israeli campaign. 

Amid information restrictions, censorship, limited independent reporting, and the regime’s efforts to control the narrative of the war, a full picture remains difficult to establish. Even so, ACLED data suggest that civilian harm has largely remained clustered around US-Israeli strikes on military, security, and state-linked sites, rather than indiscriminate bombardment across urban neighborhoods.

A US ground assault on Kharg Island or strikes on critical infrastructure would push the war into a new phase, potentially turning what has so far been a relatively localized pattern of civilian harm into a broader and more sustained threat. But for the period of 28 February to 31 March, ACLED has identified three main patterns affecting civilians and civilian spaces including residences and medical facilities:¹ direct strikes on repurposed or dual-use civilian sites, targeted assassinations in residential buildings, and, most commonly, blast-related harm to civilians or significant damage to civilian structures from strikes on state and security sites embedded in densely populated areas.

Strikes on alleged dual-use sites

In nearly 40 cases, the US and Israel have struck civilian structures directly, either because Iranian security forces had temporarily repurposed them or because they served dual civilian-military functions. Sports complexes are one example. With dozens of barracks and garrisons hit since the start of the war, authorities have reportedly become more reliant on civilian infrastructure for shelter, regrouping, and possibly command, leaving some of these sites vulnerable to attack.² 

Other cases involve sites that Israel or the US have claimed served a dual-use role, including university research facilities, companies, and industrial areas where civilian production may overlap with state security functions. These may include weapons-engineering research or the production, storage, or development of components, materials, or technologies used in missile, drone, air-defense, or related programs. The Israel Defense Forces have also struck other manufacturing sites, including two of Iran’s largest steel factories, citing their partial ownership by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Assassinations in residential buildings

Civilians have repeatedly been harmed in strikes on residential buildings during targeted assassinations of Iranian security and government officials, as well as scientists linked to the state’s military and nuclear program. ACLED records nearly 50 such cases. These strikes have often hit multi-story residential buildings where intended targets were living, staying temporarily, or using the site as a safe house. While some attacks have targeted only specific floors, others have involved heavy munitions that destroyed entire buildings and damaged surrounding structures. These strikes have killed not only the intended targets, but also their family members, including children, and neighbors, resulting in some of the deadliest incidents for civilians recorded so far.

Strikes on state and security sites in civilian areas

The most frequently recorded pattern of civilian harm involves just under 100 incidents in which civilians were killed or injured or civilian structures damaged by blast effects from US or Israeli strikes on security or government sites in densely populated areas. These sites include police and smaller Basij units, as well as the county governor's office buildings. In many cases, the sites had already been emptied or relocated. Some of these strikes caused significant damage to nearby residential buildings and medical facilities, raising questions about the military value of such targets relative to the civilian cost.

Iran’s civilians face both US escalation threats and internal repression

Civilians in Iran face not only the immediate threat of injury, death, and damage to their homes, but also the wider effects of war, including displacement, disruption to services, economic hardship, environmental harm, and damage to historical and cultural sites. Those dangers will increase even more sharply if the US seizes Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. Such a move would likely trigger an escalatory cycle, with Iran launching attacks on forces stationed on the island and intensifying attacks elsewhere in the region. The US and Israel could respond with a geographically wider air campaign across the Iranian mainland against a wider range of targets. Beyond the island’s residents, many of them oil workers, a growing number of civilians across Iran would then be exposed to the dangers of a more intense air campaign. 

The threat to civilians would grow even more severe if the conflict expands into more systematic attacks on essential infrastructure, such as power plants, fuel facilities, and water systems. The effects would extend far beyond the immediate strike zones — and potentially long after the war itself — through disruptions to electricity, transport, communications, health care, and other essential services.

Yet the dangers facing civilians do not come only from external escalation. The wartime environment has intensified state repression. Arrests persist, the internet remains shut down, and authorities continue to warn that any anti-government unrest will be met with lethal force. Millions of Iranians are increasingly trapped between external attack and internal coercion. For many, both a prolonged war and a war that ends with the Islamic Republic weakened externally, but still fully capable of internal repression, are deeply frightening.