What's driving conflict today? A review of global trends

The impact of armed conflict is becoming increasingly more severe. Governments and armed groups using violence — often against civilians — are less restrained than at any time in recent decades. Peacemaking seems harder than ever. Even when wars appear to end, violence often resurges, trapping civilians in relentless cycles of insecurity. Meanwhile, the erosion of the humanitarian system is leaving millions exposed to escalating crises with nowhere to turn. Amid these seismic shifts, conflict is also changing. 

ACLED’s mission is to bring clarity to crisis. Data alone cannot capture the full depth of these transformations. They help, however, shed light on key global and local trends, providing a tool to assess the changing nature of contemporary conflict.

High levels of conflict are the new normal

Conflict is now characterized by less restraint and increasing violence targeting civilians. Armed actors around the globe are more willing to use force and blatantly disregard any consequences. ACLED records more than 185,000 violent events worldwide in 2025. This number is in line with last year, but it’s nearly twice the number we recorded in 2021. 

The year's greatest increase in violence was felt in Europe, where the Russo-Ukrainian war reached its highest levels since the full-scale invasion in 2022. Conflicts persisted in the Middle East, where a series of fragile ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza and the end of Syria's civil war have nonetheless contributed to a 48% decrease in violence regionwide. Decreases in air campaigns by Israel and Turkey in Lebanon and Iraq, respectively, also drove a 17% drop in aerial warfare globally compared to 2024. 

One in six people was exposed to conflict in 2025

Amid sustained levels of violence globally, civilians are facing more danger than ever. In 2025, there were more than 56,000 incidents of violence directed at civilians. This is the highest level we’ve recorded of this type of violence in the last five years. Moreover, an estimated 831 million people, 16% of the global population, have been exposed to conflict. 

Non-state armed groups and mobs are responsible for approximately two-thirds of all violence targeting civilians and 59% of civilian fatalities in 2025. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) — the Darfur-based paramilitary group locked in a years-long conflict with the Sudanese army — killed more civilians in 2025 than any other non-state armed group. In the first 11 months of 2025, ACLED records over 4,200 civilians killed in RSF attacks — 11% of all recorded fatalities caused by non-state armed groups globally. This figure is likely to be a significant undercount: The RSF’s ruthless tactics, including extrajudicial killings, shelling of residential areas, and ethnically motivated violence, may have killed thousands more, rekindling accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing against Darfur’s non-Arab population.

States are contributing to an ever-increasing share of global conflict

Government forces were directly involved in 74% of violent events worldwide in 2025, the highest recorded share since ACLED reached global coverage six years ago. Likewise, civilians around the world do not just face more violence; they face more state violence. State-led violence that targets civilians has increased threefold since 2020: State forces are now responsible for 35% of global violence directed at civilians, compared to 20% in 2020. 

Indeed, the erosion of democratic and international norms is enabling governments to use violence with less restraint, affecting civilians in record numbers both at home and abroad. Israel and Russia are collectively responsible for 88% of all violent incidents that target civilians outside their borders in 2025, a result of their prolonged wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. For its part, the Myanmar military accounts for nearly a third of all violence committed by state forces against its own citizens.

More armed groups are using drones than ever before

As of 2025, ACLED records that 469 non-state armed groups, including insurgents, militias, gangs, and transnational cartels, have deployed drones in attacks at least once in the past five years, with 58 of them doing it for the first time this year. 

This number has increased exponentially since 2020, reflecting changes in contemporary warfare: Non-state armed groups are either able to access technology previously reserved for states or adapt and use minimal resources to expand their arsenals. We’ve seen this in the repurposing of readily accessible commercial drones as weapons. 

Non-state armed groups have operated drones in at least 17 countries during 2025, including in Myanmar, Mexico, Colombia, and Syria, pointing to the increasing “democratization” of drone warfare.

Violent Islamist groups are an ever-present and evolving threat around the world

Approximately 79% of the Islamic State’s global activity in the first 11 months of 2025 was recorded in Africa — up from 49% in 2024. The Islamic State suffered significant setbacks in the Middle East, resulting in the group’s pivot to Africa. Despite a 13% decrease in Islamic State activity worldwide, local affiliates escalated their actions in Somalia, Niger, and Mozambique. 

The extremist threat is not limited to the Islamic State. Other violent Islamist groups, some loosely aligned with al-Qaeda, present an ever-growing threat to governments across Africa and Asia, reflected by a 20% increase in their activity. Indeed, al-Shabaab, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), and the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) achieved considerable operational successes, staging high-profile attacks, acquiring sophisticated technology, and expanding territorial control. Their advances are straining military resources and eroding governments’ legitimacy in the eyes of local populations.

Palestine and Trump are driving people to the streets

Consequential protest movements broke out around the world in 2025. Demonstrations increased globally for a third consecutive year, surpassing 148,000 distinct events in 197 countries and territories. But 2021 still holds the record for global protest activity, with over 170,000 demonstrations recorded in 217 countries and territories. Protests are mostly peaceful, but they have become more confrontational as counter-demonstrations have increased by 33% compared to the first 11 months of 2024. 

Demonstrations in support of Palestine and against Israel’s war in Gaza were held in 104 countries and territories. Since October 2023, there have been more than 51,000 pro-Palestine protests, 18,000 of them in 2025 alone. 

In the United States, President Donald Trump’s second term was also welcomed with mass mobilization under the “No Kings” banner, with at least 7,400 demonstrations across all US states and Washington, DC. 

A series of youth-led uprisings was credited with far-reaching political consequences, including governments toppling in Peru, Madagascar, Nepal, Serbia, and South Korea, as well as the concession of reforms in Morocco, Togo, the Philippines, and Kenya. Widespread electoral fraud also sparked deadly protests in Cameroon and Tanzania. Dubbed the “Gen Z protests,” this wide-ranging wave of youth activism reveals generational disillusionment with elite politics, inequality, rising prices, and corruption. Overall, at least 88 countries experienced an increase in protest activity in 2025 compared to 2024.

Conflict Watchlist 2026