While all eyes are on the Iran conflict, settler violence is surging in the West Bank

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Amid the conflict with Iran, settler rampages and deadly incidents have surged in the West Bank. To contain the escalation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) redeployed a battalion from Lebanon to the West Bank.¹ Such a step came amid increasing international pressure on the Israeli government, including from AIPAC-backed US lawmakers who called for zero tolerance for settler violence.² Even so, the IDF’s ongoing engagement in regional conflicts, along with expansionist Israeli government rhetoric, could further worsen settler-driven violence.

Settler violence has turned increasingly lethal since the conflict began with Iran. From 1 March to 23 March, at least seven Palestinians were shot and killed by settlers. Following one of the shootings, another Palestinian died after inhaling tear gas fired by the IDF. This marks the highest number of fatalities during settler incidents in a month — reached only once before, in October 2023 — since ACLED began collecting data on Palestine a decade ago (see graph below). 

This situation has developed as Palestinian communities near settlements and outposts become increasingly isolated by movement restrictions and blocked access between cities and villages, effectively creating a lockdown that settlers appear to be exploiting.³ On 21 and 22 March, settler rampages spread across at least 29 locations after a teenage settler died near a farming outpost in the northern West Bank when a Palestinian-owned truck hit his ATV (see map below).⁴ The rampages led to scores of injuries, along with homes and cars burned and property vandalized.

The Israeli government is accelerating the legalization of outposts.⁵ On 25 March alone, the Israeli security cabinet reportedly regulated 30 illegal outposts.⁶ Many are farms established by small groups of ideologically driven settlers, often linked to the Hilltop Youth movement, who are taking part in the violence and seeking to expand control over land.

At the same time, rhetoric from Israeli officials is reinforcing developments on the ground. Figures in the far-right government have portrayed the wartime period that followed the attacks on 7 October 2023 as an opportunity to reshape control over the West Bank. In the days leading up to the Iran war, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich renewed calls for annexation,⁷ while his more recent statements have suggested dismantling the Palestinian Authority. This kind of messaging is likely to further embolden settler groups, many of whom see the displacement of Palestinians and territorial expansion as a religious duty.

Currently, Israeli military forces are stretched across multiple fronts — the war with Iran, operations in Gaza, conflict with Hezbollah, and reinforcement along the borders with Jordan and Syria — and are facing personnel shortages. In this situation, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned that the military could face serious strain without reforms, including ultra-Orthodox enlistment and extended service.⁸ 

In the West Bank, the IDF’s troop shortage could lead to increased reliance on local reserve units made up of settlers. Involving settler soldiers in formal security roles even as they participate in violence with tacit tolerance of the government risks further blurring the line between state security responsibilities and settlers’ personal interests.

Israel’s engagement in ongoing conflicts is likely to further fuel settler violence in the West Bank. As Israeli forces’ attention shifts away from Palestinian areas, settlers are becoming more heavily armed and increasingly integrated into formal security roles, with continued backing from the government. This creates conditions for more coordinated attacks and more widespread impunity for lethal violence, while also enabling faster expansion into new areas and greater Israeli control over land.