Conflict Watchlist 2023

The invasion of Ukraine has cast a shadow of uncertainty on global security. Russian President Vladimir Putin defied the expectations of many and attacked a sovereign country at its borders after a years-long military build-up. To this day, Ukrainian forces, backed by Western political and military aid, have prevented Russian troops from capturing Kyiv and taking control of the entire country. Yet, Moscow’s actions – which include indiscriminate bombings, summary executions, and enforced disappearances, likely amounting to war crimes – have killed tens of thousands and devastated the country’s infrastructure. With millions forced to flee Ukraine, the war’s consequences have stretched far beyond Europe, prompting dramatic shifts in other crisis areas around the world, from Africa to the Middle East.

And the war in Ukraine was just one of the conflicts that escalated in 2022. Overall, political violence increased by 27% globally last year, with an estimated 1.7 billion people exposed to its effects. A wide range of actors contributed to the spike in violence, including state forces, government-backed militias, non-state armed groups, criminal organizations, and mercenary outfits, which have perpetrated violence against other armed actors as well as civilians – often with the promise of impunity. These conflict agents share a common desire to maximize power, either globally or locally, and do not operate in a vacuum. The proliferation of violent actors represents a failure to create governance structures that can nurture stability and prosperity, and promote peaceful resolutions for the world’s most severe conflicts.

In ACLED’s new Conflict Watchlist, we identify 10 crisis areas that are likely to evolve in the coming year, both for better and for worse. The Watchlist goes beyond a snapshot of violent hotspots – instead, these cases represent a sample of some of the world’s most complex crises, where a combination of subnational, regional, and international dynamics are likely to produce major shifts in each conflict’s trajectory in 2023. They include local and national conflicts, as well as transnational conflict spaces encompassing multiple countries and cutting across borders.

To begin, we return to Ukraine. Initial predictions by the Russian government that its troops would take Kyiv within a few days of the invasion were quickly dispelled. Ukrainian forces have held off Russian advancements and launched major counter-offensives in the country’s southeast. The two armies have now prepared for a prolonged conflict, which threatens to claim an even higher civilian toll and escalate further beyond Ukraine’s borders.