COVID-19 Disorder Tracker

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus and COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic. From China to Italy and the United States, many countries are taking unprecedented steps to curb the outbreak, with wide-ranging and uncertain repercussions for stability and security around the world. Even as the United Nations has called for an immediate global ceasefire to deal with “the true fight of our lives” (AP, 23 March 2020), some non-state armed groups like the Islamic State see the crisis as an opportunity to go on the offensive (DW, 23 March 2020).

How will COVID-19 impact trends in global disorder? How will it change the trajectory of conflict and demonstration patterns around the world?

Such a quickly evolving situation requires regular and reliable monitoring. Through the duration of the crisis, ACLED’s global network of remote researchers will continue to track these trends in real-time, publishing data on political violence and protest on a weekly basis to support ongoing research, policymaking, and humanitarian efforts. The COVID-19 Disorder Tracker (CDT) will provide special coverage of the pandemic’s impact on disorder around the world.

The CDT aims to track and evaluate the trends:

• While demonstration activity may initially spike in response to state management of the pandemic, it will soon decline as a function of concern over the spread of the virus, new medical guidelines, and/or government travel and assembly restrictions
• State repression will rise, especially in authoritarian states, under the guise of strict adherence to health security standards
• Mob violence too will rise, with vigilantes targeting marginalized groups, such as those suspected of being infected and Asian communities, amid an increase in general xenophobia
• Overall armed conflict rates may remain stable, yet the composition of conflict will change: militaries may decrease their activity as states divert resources to combat the pandemic. At the same time, non-state actors may see the crisis as an opportunity to make ‘big moves’ and ramp up activity

The pandemic is still in its early stages and we expect trends to continue to evolve, especially in light of the exponential growth that can occur in numbers infected.

This page will be regularly updated with CDT Forecasts, Bulletins, Spotlight reports highlighting specific countries and trends, and more. Watch this space for monitoring and follow the latest from the COVID-19 Disorder Tracker on Twitter using #CDT.