Dr. Ameneh Mehvar is ACLED’s Middle East Regional Expert. In this role, she leads analysis on regional conflicts and provides expertise to ensure the accuracy of ACLED’s data coverage, while also supporting the organization’s engagement with external partners and the media.
Ameneh has expertise in Middle East security and foreign policy, with a focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Persian Gulf security dynamics. Previously, she worked as a political risk consultant in the private sector and has also gained experience in the public sector. Additionally, she has taught and conducted academic research.
Ameneh holds a master’s degree in Middle East and Central Asian Security Studies and a PhD in International Relations from the University of St Andrews, Scotland.
Spoken languages: English, Persian and German Timezone: Central European Time - CET
Damascus remains less exposed to political violence than other governorates in post-Assad Syria, pointing to a cautiously positive outlook despite residual security threats.
Violence declined in Lebanon and Gaza in June, but Israeli military pressure persisted, while the US-Iran MoU opened a fragile negotiation period in which disputes over implementation played out most clearly in the Strait of Hormuz.
So far, most harm has occurred during attacks on military, security, and state-linked sites. If the US attacks critical infrastructure, that could change.
As the threat of a US attack looms large, ACLED experts explain the dynamics shaping the trajectory of the crisis.
Israel intensified its attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, deadly state repression across Iran halts protests, and violence escalated between state forces and the SDF in northern Syria.
In Gaza, lethal hostilities continued to subside, while Israel consolidated and expanded its control; protests rocked Iran; and Gulf proxy rivalries fuelled a political storm in southern Yemen.
In 2025, Israel launched attacks in Iran, Lebanon, Palestine, Qatar, Syria, and Yemen. Its next moves may be influenced by diplomatic efforts and internal politics.
The ceasefire in Gaza held in October as low-level violence continued, while the ceasefire in Lebanon approached one year under strain, and settler violence against olive harvesters in the West Bank reached a record high.
Watch the recorded webinar held on 29 May 2025 for in-depth analysis of these developments, the evolving strategies of Palestinian armed groups, and the political dynamics driving the escalation — followed by a Q&A.
