Boko Haram Activity Since the Nigerian Government’s Announcement of the Ceasefire

On the 17th of October, Hassan Tukur, a senior aide to President Goodluck Jonathan, announced that the Nigerian government had agreed a ceasefire with Boko Haram and secured the release of the 219 girls kidnapped from Chibok earlier this year (Al Jazeera, 18 October). Doubts were immediately cast on the validity of the government’s claim.…

Intra-Tuareg Militant Violence and Islamist Insurgency – The Overlapping Crises of the Conflict in Mali

Following the short but deadly burst of fighting in May, Mali has generally seen a decreasing trend in overall events over the past few months (which follows a broader trend in decreasing violence since this time last year), with a spike in fatalities during July (see Figure 1). However, although the number of violent events…

State Fragility

After a cursory look at the Fund for Peace’s (hereafter FFP) 2014 fragile state rankings, @ACLEDInfo mentioned on twitter that the metrics were ‘questionable’. We suggested index’s rankings of fragility bear little relationship to reality. A polite reply from the FFP opened the space for more discussion. Since a complete conversation is not ‘tweetable’, this…