Regional Overview – Asia 9 October 2018

The overall levels of organized violence and demonstrations remained relatively static, indicating a slight decrease for the South and Southeast Asian regions last week compared to previous weeks. The first week of October was marked by pre-election violence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, increased targeting of civilians by suspected southern Muslim separatists in Thailand, and violent…

Regional Overview – Asia 2 October 2018

Overall levels of organised violence and demonstrations continued to declined across South and Southeast Asia, with the exception of in Pakistan where the number of reported demonstrations increased by over 70%. In Afghanistan, at least two parliamentary candidates were targeted last week by unidentified militants in Kandahar and Khost city, signalling the likely beginning of…

Understanding Inter-Ethnic Conflict in Myanmar

While most of the political violence in Myanmar arises from the conflicts between the Myanmar military and the many ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in the country, inter-ethnic conflict has increased in recent years. One such conflict is that between the Palaung State Liberation Front/Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA) and the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan…

Analysis of the FPNCC/Northern Alliance and Myanmar Conflict Dynamics

With the Myanmar military pressuring all ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), non-signatory EAOs have responded by forming a loose military alliance, called the Northern Alliance, to strengthen their position against the military. As with many alliances in Myanmar’s history, the cohesiveness and long-term viability of the alliance is uncertain.…

Myanmar – 2010 Data Release

Spanning from 2010 to the present, ACLED’s dataset for Myanmar includes over 5,000 recorded events. The data cover three political periods: the tail-end of the military dictatorship through 2010, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) administration from 2011 to 2016, and the start of the National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government from 2016 to…

Myanmar: Conflict Update

Overview Despite a ceasefire agreement in 2015[1], violence in Myanmar has increased as clashes between government and non-state groups[2] continues to grow in areas party to the ceasefire and those not (see Figures 1 and 2). The vast majority of conflict events engage the government, who remains responsible for the intensity and devastation of the…

Peace in Myanmar?

Myanmar recorded 254 battles in 2015, compared to Pakistan’s 274. Geographically, Myanmar’s battles are concentrated largely in two of its northern states: Shan and Kachin (see figure below). This area of Myanmar recorded nearly as many battles as all of Pakistan. Since Myanmar’s coup d’etat in 1962, which transitioned the country to strict authoritarian military…

Asian Overview 2015

In February 2016 ACLED released the first annual dataset of South and Southeast Asia political violence and protest data. This set covers events in 2015 across ten South and Southeast Asian states. 10,195 political violence and protest events are recorded in 2015. ACLED’s team is also working to record historical data from 2010 in Pakistan, India,…

Targeting Civilians in South and Southeast Asia

South and Southeast Asian countries have witnessed 561 violent events targeting civilians in 2015 so far. Over half of these events, 293, cannot be verifiably linked to any specific group. Yet the remaining 268 events can be traced to specific rebel groups and political militias. In Bangladesh, the political rivalry between the Bangladesh National Party…