South Sudan – February 2017 Update

Higher levels of violence have rocked South Sudan since July 2016, when battles re-erupted between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO) in the capital Juba. Between July and October, the spread of the conflict remained localized in Greater Equatoria (ACLED, November 2016), but since November, this trend has…

Overview of Continental Trends 2016

African states experienced high rates of both political violence and protest in 2016 (see Figure 2). The aggregated totals are remarkably similar to those of 2015, which indicates three important lessons going forward: The crisis points on the continent- Libya, South Sudan, Somalia, and Nigeria- continue to produce significant violence, with substantial harm to civilians…

South Sudan– November 2016 Update

Political violence in South Sudan continued to increase through October, reaching its highest point since the battles in July when violence re-erupted in the capital between the government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO). Since July, the spread of conflict remained localised to the Greater Equatoria region (see Figure 1).…

SPECIAL REPORT: South Sudan — July 2016 Update

A Country Report reviewing conflict patterns and dynamics, and the current state of the South Sudanese Civil War, is available here. Despite both the SPLA and the SPLA-IO signing a peace agreement in August 2015, conflict has continued across South Sudan (see Figure 1). To date, almost 17,000 people have been killed in the five years since…

South Sudan — June 2016 Update

In May 2016, the number of battles and conflict events in South Sudan fell to the lowest level in the past 12 months (see Figure 1). The decrease in total events and battles is due, in part, to the formation of a transitional government and the reinstatement of opposition leader Riek Machar as First Vice…

Leadership Survival and Hired Guns

Regimes in developing states engage in practices of ‘violence management’ that involve both offensive and defensive strategies to contain, repress, and curtail various domestic threats. Some of these strategies include public repression, counterbalancing (fragmenting military and police units through offering varying levels of support, equipping units differently, and the creation of paramilitary forces) and supporting…

South Sudan — March 2016 Update

Progress was made in the South Sudan peace process. Riek Machar, leader of the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO), returned to government as the First Vice-President on 11 February (Africa Confidential, 19 February 2016). This marks Machar’s first return to government since he was fired by President Salva Kiir in 2013…

South Sudan — January 2015 Update

On 26 August 2015, South Sudan President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar signed a peace deal in an attempt to end a 20-month civil war (Reuters, 26 August 2015). The agreement has already proven fragile with an escalation in the number of conflict events and reported fatalities involving Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement-In Opposition…

African Overview 2015

In 2015, ACLED recorded 14,640 conflict events on the African continent. Armed conflict decreased by 14.0% compared to the previous year, marking the first negative trend since 2009. In a number of high-activity countries, including Central African Republic, Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia, conflict levels declined by more than 20% over one year.…