Asia-Pacific Overview: May 2026

Afghanistan and Pakistan: Limited reprieve from TTP militancy as the conflict enters its third month

A decline in Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) activity in April provided a limited reprieve to Pakistan, even as the conflict with Afghanistan entered its third month. It is unclear in the short term whether this decline will create space for peace talks toward a comprehensive agreement. But in the long term, it will likely embolden Islamabad to continue with its coercive strategy, as it validates the belief that cross-border military actions — especially when directed at the broader Afghan Taliban apparatus — can prove successful in countering domestic militancy. 

TTP activity in Pakistan declined for the second consecutive month, reaching the lowest level recorded so far this year in April. The fall comes despite directives from the TTP and allied groups to escalate attacks against Pakistan, and in support of the Afghan Taliban, issued after the latest conflict broke out.¹

Meanwhile, China-mediated peace talks between the two countries in early April yielded limited success, as violence again surged toward the end of April. On 27 April, Pakistani strikes in Afghanistan’s Asad Abad city hit a university campus, killing at least seven and injuring scores. Besides the 27 April strike, firing and missile attacks by Pakistan killed at least six civilians in the border areas of Afghanistan’s Kunar and Kandahar provinces during the week. The continuation of hostilities is unsurprising, as Pakistan’s core concerns over Afghanistan sheltering the TTP, among other militant groups, remain unresolved. 

See more of ACLED’s coverage on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

India: New outbreak of ​​inter-ethnic violence in Manipur state 

April saw the deadliest bout of inter-ethnic violence in India's Manipur state in the last 18 months, which is likely to further entrench divisions. The violence undermines peacemaking efforts by the newly appointed chief minister, Yumnam Khemchand Singh, as the conflict between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities enters its fourth year. Meanwhile, the increasing involvement of the Naga community — the other main ethnic group in the state that has so far stayed away from the conflict — underscores the difficulties of forging a settlement. The Kuki-Zo community’s core demand of political autonomy in Kuki-Zo-dominated areas is likely to provoke further divisions, as there is no agreement among different tribes, including the Nagas, on the territorial boundaries of such an area. Further sporadic outbreaks of inter-ethnic violence — including between the Kuki-Zo and Meitei communities, which have defined the status quo — therefore seem likely.

Tensions escalated after a rocket-propelled shell killed two Meitei children in Tronglaobi village on 7 April. Angered at the failure of security forces to protect locals, a mob attacked a nearby camp, leading stationed personnel to open fire, which killed three further locals. Unrest soon spread across the state, with ACLED recording nearly 200, largely peaceful, demonstrations by Meitei groups against the killings — the highest level of such mobilization recorded since the conflict broke out in May 2023. Authorities are still investigating who carried out the initial attack, but the victims’ ethnicity means that suspicion lies on Kuki-Zo assailants.² 

Meanwhile, the Naga community increasingly became embroiled in violence. On 18 April, suspected Kuki assailants killed two Naga civilians in an ambush in Ukhrul district, with subsequent clashes between the two communities resulting in three more people killed. Militant groups organized along these ethnic lines are also active in the area. Their involvement could escalate ethnic tensions into wider, more organized violence — ACLED records two clashes between such groups in April.  

Indonesia: Security operations in Central Papua turn deadly and prompt demonstrations  

A firefight between the Indonesian military forces (TNI) and the separatist West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) in mid-April escalated into a security crackdown in combat and protected zones in Central Papua, leaving at least 15 people dead. The violence marked the first event in which civilians were killed inside Puncak regency’s Kembru district, an area designated as a refugee sanctuary.

Clashes began on 13 April after TPNPB members allegedly burned a house in Muara village, in the neighboring district of Pogoma. The TNI responded with aerial operations reportedly involving helicopters and dropping explosives.³ The operation expanded into several villages in Kembru district the next day, blurring the line between conflict and protected zones. 

Each side blamed the other for the civilian casualties.⁴ The TNI claims its forces came under initial attack in Kembru village, while the TPNPB accuses the military of deliberately targeting civilians.⁵ The conflict spilled into Highland Papua on 20 and 21 April when a TPNPB unit killed seven civilians near the Yahukimo-Pegunungan Bintang border. The group described the attack as retaliation and alleged the victims were spies.⁶

Since January 2024, ACLED records a steadily growing number of TNI air- and drone strikes in the Papuan regions. While the rate of strikes began to increase sharply toward the end of 2025, April saw the highest monthly number of airstrikes since ACLED began recording events in Indonesia in 2015, with 27 recorded — three times more than the prior monthly peak of nine. The TNI’s increasing use of drones and airstrikes, alongside a growing military presence in Papuan regions, risks turning localized clashes into a wider crisis. In response to the escalation, thousands in Puncak have called for an end to violence against civilians. In major Papua cities, such as Jayapura, student protests have been met with police repression.

Myanmar: With simultaneous air and ground offensives, the military signals 100-day war strategy 

Coup leader and self-installed President Min Aung Hlaing urged armed opposition forces to disarm and “enter the legal fold” within 100 days at his first cabinet meeting on 20 April.⁷ He claimed that negotiations were underway with People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) fighting against military rule, but did not elaborate. He also invited ethnic armed organizations to talks, specifically the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA), Chin National Front/Chin National Army (CNF/CNA), and All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF) — all groups that signed the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement but opposed the 2021 coup, and that are allied with PDFs.

Alongside these recent overtures, the military intensified operations in territories in Chin, Mon, and Kayin states where these groups are active. Sustained airstrikes forced Chin resistance groups to retreat from Chin state’s Falam town, with the military recapturing it on 25 April. In Mon and Kayin states, where KNU/KNLA brigades operate, the military conducted near-daily airstrikes throughout April. In Mon state’s Bilin township, the military used heavy airstrikes as clashes escalated around a KNU/KNLA and ABSDF offensive on the Win Tar Pan military camp, with casualties on both sides. In Kayin state’s Hpapun township, the military conducted airstrikes in the vicinity of KNU/KNLA schools and hospitals; one airstrike hit the Oo Mei Htar hospital and affected a nearby territory in Thailand on 20 April.

These operations appear aimed not only at restoring control over trade routes and economic nodes but also at disrupting resistance coordination and supply lines. Min Aung Hlaing’s 100-day entreaty is less a genuine peace initiative and more a tactical time frame to consolidate territorial gains ahead of planned negotiations, suggesting further Myanmar army escalation in the near term.

Philippines: NPA-military clashes in Negros Occidental lead to the highest death toll in years

Clashes between the military and the communist New People’s Army (NPA) killed at least 19 people in Toboso town, Negros Occidental province, on 19 April. This amounted to the most lethal clash between the NPA and the military in more than four years, when a clash in Eastern Samar province killed 19 people.

The clash provoked widespread outcry and several protests due to the deaths of up to nine civilians at the hands of the military. According to human rights organizations, among the people killed were a journalist, a student council member at the University of the Philippines, a local resident, and land rights activists.⁸ However, the military denied the human rights groups’ claims, saying that all 19 people killed were NPA combatants.⁹ The NPA, on the other hand, acknowledged 10 of the people killed as members of their ranks, while stating that the nine others killed were noncombatants.¹⁰

Negros Occidental province remains one of the hotspots of the insurgency, reflecting the roots of the rebellion in the difficult conditions of the province’s agricultural sector. These conditions also explain the presence of sympathetic activists, researchers, and other civilians who have been victimized by “red-tagging,” the targeting of civilians accused of having communist links by state forces.