Cabo Ligado Weekly: 7 - 13 December 2020

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-December 2020¹

• Total number of organized violence events: 721
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence: 2,441
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 1,237

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool, and a curated Mozambique dataset is available on the Cabo Ligado home page.

Situation Summary

Insurgents struck close to the liquified natural gas (LNG) projects in Palma district on 7 December, arriving in the village of Mute, 25 kilometers south of Palma town, and burning homes. Government forcesresponded, backed by helicopters. Insurgents fought them back and stayed overnight in Mute. Casualties reported include one dead and three injured from state security forces.

On 8 December, the insurgents who had stayed the night in Mute moved north on the main road toward Palma, arriving in Ngueo, about two kilometers north of Mute. The attackers destroyed several houses, and residents fled north to Palma. The attacks at Mute and Ngueo caused Total to pause work on its nearby LNG facility out of concern for contract workers who are housed in Mute.

On the same day, insurgents launched three attacks in Nangade district. In Mandimba, just across the border from Palma district near Pundanhar, insurgents ambushed a car carrying civilians from Palma to Nangade along the contested westerly route out of Palma. One person was killed, three were injured, and the insurgents kidnapped at least two women. The route to Palma temporarily shut down after the attack, but drivers were braving it once again by 11 December.

Insurgents also attacked Nkongo and Ntamba, both south of Mandimba. In Nkongo, insurgents shot into the air to disperse civilians and then stole a number of motorbikes. In Ntamba, they arrived, but no casualty reports are available.

In Macomia district, insurgents gathered resources in Chai, an inland town in the north of the district, where eight insurgents held up a grocery store on 9 December, stealing food. They did not hurt anyone, telling civilians that they only wished to resupply their fighters. The next day, off the Macomia district coast, insurgents in a motorboat waylaid several fishermen. The men were set free shortly, but insurgents kept a portion of their fish.

On 12 December, insurgents went on a shooting spree through Nangade district. Traveling by motorbike, they killed 14 civilians and destroyed four vehicles across the villages of Namiune, 25 de Setembro, Naleke, Chicuaia Nova, Litingina, and Lukuamba. They also reportedly stole fuel from the villages they visited. The spree continued the next day in Samora Machel and Namuembe, but no casualty reports emerged.

Government forces launched their own operations last week. In Pemba, police arrested six people accused of being insurgent contributors. Searches of the detainees led to the recovery of three assault rifles, bullets, and substantial cash amounts.

On the Mocimboa da Praia coast, helicopters have been active in destroying insurgent boats in the area. The government has warned fishermen and traders against sailing too far north of Ibo district, as that coast section is now effectively a free fire zone. Many boats captured by insurgents in Mocimboa da Praia harbor were destroyed. However, the no-go order has temporarily hampered the sea route to Palma, further isolating the town.

Reports emerged about earlier attacks without publicity. A refugee arriving in Pemba reported that insurgents based near Nchinga, Muidumbe district, beheaded an elderly man in nearby Muambula on 6 December. The same group shot and injured a man in Muambula the next day.

Incident Focus: Budget Questions

A report from Africa Intelligence details a contract between Mozambique's military and South African weapons manufacturer Paramount Group. Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi and Defense Minister Jaime Neto personally negotiated the deal for Paramount to supply vehicles, helicopters, and training. The report details are unconfirmed, but evidence of Paramount's involvement with Mozambique's military is strong. In late November, at least five Marauder-type armored vehicles, manufactured by Paramount, appeared in Mozambique.

The added hardware will be beneficial for the overstretched military, but the contract raises questions about organizing Mozambique's security services. With Paramount contracted to the Ministry of Defense and South African private military contractor Dyck Advisory Group (DAG) working for national police, Mozambique's security apparatus uses competing companies to procure capabilities (helicopters, pilots, training) for the same conflict.

DAG is working at the limits of its capacity and not yet turning the conflict tide, so the security services pursuing another supplier seems logical. However, through the lens of military-police competition, dual contracts appear counterproductive. Evidence of friction between police and military is abundant. Police have complained about no deployment bonuses given to soldiers, and the military has casualties in friendly fire incidents with police-associated militias. Joint operations are rare. Parallel air assault operations may exacerbate this friction rather than solve it.

The government announced last week that it lacks funds for its Integrated Northern Development Agency (ADIN), meant to address Cabo Delgado conflict's underlying causes. ADIN expects major international donor funding, but it's slow. Inefficient security contracting appeals intra-governmental and intra-Frelimo power struggles more than strategic considerations.

Government Response

The Mozambican government now reports that 560,626 people are displaced in Cabo Delgado, according to the country’s Council of Ministers. This is a significant increase from October's estimate of 435,000 displaced.

Some of those in conflict zones received good news; electricity will soon return to parts of Nangade and Mueda, where Mozambique’s National Energy Fund is installing solar panels to alleviate a long blackout. Insurgent sabotage in Mocimboa da Praia district caused the blackout. Government efforts to repair were turned back. The solar panels will power government buildings, but private users rely on generators.

Relations between the government and refugees are becoming strained. In Metuge district, Quissanga district evacuees are resisting government encouragement to return. Police Chief Bernardino Rafael urges over 40,000 refugees to return, saying it is safe. Residents distrust Rafael after renewed insurgent attacks crumbled an earlier plan.

Some displaced civilians asked Prime Minister Carlos Agostinho do Rosário for weapons to defend themselves. The prime minister refused, saying, “Firearms must be with … Defense and Security Forces and with trusted people.” This highlights civilian militia arming tension, needing more manpower, yet fearing uncontrolled armed actors.

Confidence in state security forces may be low due to police bribery reports. Rather than vetting refugees, Pemba police report bribery instead, exploiting vulnerable civilians and threatening Pemba security.

On the global stage, nations find creative ways to assist Mozambique’s insurgency efforts without engaging combat operations. Japan announced $1.8 million for a coast guard in Cabo Delgado, aiming to protect escaping civilians.

Portugal, however, supports Mozambique's military effort. Defense Minister João Gomes Cravinho said a military team will arrive in January for Mozambican armed forces logistics and training planning. Portugal will push for EU military and humanitarian aid during its EU presidency.

© 2020 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). All rights reserved.