EPO Monthly: October 2021

October at a Glance

• Vital Stats - ACLED records 94 organized political violence events and 346 reported fatalities in October.
• Vital Stats - Amhara region had the highest number of reported fatalities due to organized political violence in October with 250 reported fatalities. Oromia region followed with 93 reported fatalities.
• Vital Stats - In October, the most common event type was battles, with 49 events and 182 fatalities reported.

Vital Trends

• Battles between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) reignited in Amhara and Afar regions in October.
• ENDF conducted multiple airstrikes in Tigray region throughout October; the airstrikes were the first since the government announced a unilateral ceasefire in June 2021.
• Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane members clashed with government forces in Oromia region throughout the month of October.

In This Report

• Situation Summary
• Monthly Focus: Tension between Amhara Nationalists and the Federal Government

Situation Summary

After a period of relative calm in the last two weeks of September, clashes between the TPLF and ENDF reignited in Amhara and Afar regions in October (see map below). Each side accused the other of initiating the conflict. Throughout the month, TPLF forces clashed with the ENDF, Amhara regional special forces, and Amhara militias in North Wello and South Wello zones. TPLF forces managed to gain control of Dessie town, the administrative center of South Wello zone, as well as Kombolcha town, the industrial hub of the zone. In Afar region, most armed clashes between the TPLF and ENDF, accompanied by Afar regional special forces, were concentrated in Chifra town, which borders South Wello zone in Amhara region. The town is a strategic location on the main road that links Amhara region to Mille junction and beyond to the Djibouti port.

In October, the ENDF conducted multiple airstrikes against the TPLF in Afar, Amhara, and Tigray region. In Amhara region, airstrikes were conducted near the towns of Wirgesa and Wegeltena. They were also carried out on the road linking Afar region to Amhara region (Reuters, 9 October 2021). The five airstrikes by ENDF in Tigray region from 18 October to 22 October marked the first since the government announced a unilateral ceasefire in June 2021. During the last week of October, ENDF conducted five additional airstrikes: twice in Mekelle, and once in May Tsemre, Adawa, and Aguale each.

Shelling by TPLF forces was reported throughout the month. On 13 October, in the Afar region, shelling by TPLF reportedly killed seven civilians and wounded 15 others (DW Amharic, 13 October 2021). On 17 October, TPLF shelled an ancient mosque in Zarima town in North Gondar zone, causing significant damage. Around 18 October, TPLF forces shelled Ambassel town in North Wello zone, killing an unspecified number of people. Over the last weekend of October, TPLF shelled Dessie town four times.

Civilians continue to suffer due to the ongoing conflict. Internal displacement compounded with food insecurity during planting and harvesting seasons have resulted in a critical humanitarian situation. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is expected to increase in the coming months.

Meanwhile, last month, many individuals joined Amhara militias in fighting against TPLF forces in South Wello zone, following requests from the Amhara regional government to defend North and South Wello zones (Amhara Media Corporation, 21 October 2021;  Amhara Media Corporation, 18 October 2021). Recruitment drives were held throughout October in cities and towns across Ethiopia.

In Oromia region, armed clashes between the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane and government forces continued in Guji, East Guji, and West Shewa zones. Throughout October, OLF-Shane joined Oromo ethnic militias in clashes with Amhara militias in northern Oromia region. From 10 to 13 October, the OLF-Shane and Amhara ethnic militias clashed in Haro Addis Alem kebele in Kiremu woreda. On 18 October, Oromo and Amhara ethnic militias clashed in Amuru town in Horo Guduru Wollega zone. Clashes between Oromo and Amhara communities have periodically occurred in these areas, worsening recently due to reduced capacity of state security forces as demand for additional troops in northern Ethiopia grew.

Reports from Oromia suggest militias linked to OLF-Shane target Amhara civilians, a claim the group denies. In October, OLF-Shane and government forces continued attacks on civilians in Oromia region: on 12 October, OLF-Shane militants attacked Kelala in Limu woreda; on 18 and 19 October, they attacked civilians in Merkato area in Beko-Jimma kebele; on 26 and 27 October, ENDF members reportedly killed four people in Golbo Bitim kebele in Welenchiti. Oromia special forces reportedly burned a house owned by a family accused of sending their son to join OLF-Shane on 27 October.

Benshangul/Gumuz region remained unstable in October due to frequent attacks on civilians and clashes between Gumuz armed groups and government security forces. More than 490,000 internally displaced people reside in the region according to regional government reports (DW Amharic, 6 October 2021).

Monthly focus: Tension between Amhara Nationalists and the Federal Government

Since the conflict between the federal government and the TPLF began last year, Amhara regional authorities closely allied with the federal government's war efforts. Amhara political elites control territory bordering Tigray region and contest former TPLF-controlled territory. Regional special forces, kebele militias, and Fano fighters¹ joined with the federal government in fighting the TPLF. Amhara forces were key in controlling Western Tigray from TPLF initially. Since the TPLF's expansion into Amhara, Amhara forces took a leading role.

Though Amhara forces are temporarily allied with the federal government, frustrations have grown. Amhara nationalists accuse the federal government of failing to utilize military advantage over the TPLF. The National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) called out the government for inadequacy (NaMA, 17 October 2021). As ENDF forces continue losing ground, there's rising belief that the government cannot guarantee Amhara safety.

Earlier frustrations were voiced in Amhara region during ongoing violence against Amhara civilians nationwide. Protests in April 2021 in Bahir Dar saw slogans against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and attacks on Prosperity Party posters (EPO Weekly, 17-23 April 2021). Many protesters now fight as militia members, feeling abandoned and betrayed by the federal government. This has led to a pivot; instead of fighting for Ethiopia's unity, some now fight based on “existence, identity, and for this land,” reflecting an Amhara nationalistic perspective distinct from Ethiopian nationalism (Channel 4 News, 28 October 2021).

The rise of Amhara nationalism is documented as originating due to political, economic, and socio-cultural factors: a sense of strangeness, 'statelessness', lack of security, threat to survival, and economic marginalization (Tazebew, 20 January 2021). The federal government benefited from Amhara nationalism's historic link to Ethiopian nationalism, but this is changing. Government inaction frustrations have strengthened distinct Amhara nationalist rhetoric.

Amhara civilians in TPLF-occupied areas face difficulties. In Wag Hamra zone, food insecurity impacts communities critically (BBC Amharic, 5 November 2021). Amnesty International reported "gang rape, looting, and assaults" by TPLF forces in Nifas Mawecha (Amnesty International, 9 November 2021). Amhara civilians in Oromia accuse Oromo militias and OLF-Shane of attacks.

The growing rift between Amhara nationalists and federal authorities may weaken their military alliance and allow TPLF exploitation for military gain. The extent to which Amhara nationalists might engage in military action or negotiations with TPLF without federal approval is unclear. While Fano militias are influenced by Amhara nationalist politicians, the central government controls more formally organized regional special forces and kebele militias through the Prosperity Party in Amhara. As TPLF forces continue advancing, a tipping point may be reached where drastic actions are advocated by Amhara nationalists.