EPO Weekly: 14-20 October 2023

• Total number of political violence events: 35
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 187
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 24

• Total number of political violence events: 1,178
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 3,813
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 1,514

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

Clashes between Fano militias and members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) continued in Amhara region, while kidnapping and clashes were also reported in Oromia region. Violent, ethnic-based clashes were also reported in Central Ethiopia region.

Last week, ethnic-based clashes between Kebena and Gurage ethnic groups in Welkite town in Central Ethiopia region, which erupted on 13 October, continued until 15 October. The conflict is connected to a boundary dispute between the Kebena Special woreda and Welkite town. At least six people have been killed due to these clashes. On 15 October, police fired tear gas to disperse clashing residents.² Additionally, the Gurage zone command post established a curfew to control the clashes. The recently established Central Ethiopia region classified Kebena and Mareko woredas as ‘special’ woredas, and East Gurage woreda as a zone, giving them governing privileges independent of the Gurage zone based on their previous claims to establish their own administrative levels.³ Since the announcement of these new levels of administrations, sporadic clashes over boundaries have been recorded in the region (for more, see the EPO Weekly: 30 September-6 October 2023).

In Amhara region, Fano militias clashed with the ENDF in Bure in West Gojam zone, Debre Markos in East Gojam zone, Meteh Bila in North Shewa zone and Zobel mountains near Kobo town in North Wello zone. Tension throughout many locations of the region have been high due to the presence of ENDF soldiers in all major towns and frequent armed clashes with Fano militias⁴ (for more on the conflict in Amhara region, see the EPO Monthly: August 2023). Last week, ENDF claimed to have foiled attacks in Dessie town by a group identified by the force as “an extremist group” that reportedly planned to disturb the stability of the town, as well as the ruling party’s training in the town, by planting explosives in various locations of the town.⁵ The ruling party, Prosperity Party, has been providing training for its top and mid-level leaders for 12 days in 10 locations across the country, including in the capital city of Amhara, Bahir Dar and Dessie town, under the slogan “from debt to reward.”⁶ The Amhara regional government has taken these training sessions in its region as a sign to demonstrate the stability of the region.⁷

Meanwhile, in Oromia region, 13 armed clashes between ENDF forces and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane militants were reported last week, while both the OLF-Shane and government forces were also accused of engaging in violence against civilians (see map below). Much of the armed clashes and violence against civilians reported last week were recorded in North Shewa zone, where violence is common along the A3 highway connecting Amhara region to Addis Ababa. Amidst clashes and violence against civilians, on 20 October, it was reported that at least four Chinese nationals were kidnapped from a cement factory by suspected members of the OLF-Shane in North Shewa zone.⁸ In May 2021, three other Chinese workers were taken hostage by the OLF-Shane forces around Mendi in West Wollega zone for their involvement in mining in the area. They were later released after mediation by the International Committee of Red Cross.⁹ Last week, various reports indicated the concerns of residents in Oromia regions over the frequent abductions of civilians in the region.¹⁰

Lastly, on 13 October, the UN-mandated Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia released its final report and findings during the UN’s 54th Human Rights Council session. The report, among other things, stated its findings that “the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, Eritrean Defence Forces, regional forces and affiliated militias perpetrated violations and abuses in Tigray…that amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity.”¹¹ The Commission also found that Tigray fighters committed crimes in Amhara and Afar regions that amounted to war crimes, and noted that violence and crimes were ongoing at the time that the report was written, expressing concern over the presence of Amhara and Eritrean forces still within Tigray region’s boundaries. The end of the Commission’s mandate at the 54th Human Rights Council session is significant, and interviews with European Union Diplomats, who had originally supported the Commission, indicated that it was expected that the Ethiopian government would continue investigations into human rights abuses.¹² The Ethiopian government opposed the establishment of the Commission at its outset, calling for its termination and accusing the Commission of politicizing human rights issues.¹³