EPO Weekly: 18-24 November 2023

By the Numbers: Ethiopia, 18-24 November 2023¹

• Total number of political violence events: 34
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 89
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 18

By the Numbers: Ethiopia, 18 November 2022-24 November 2023

• Total number of political violence events: 1,236
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 3,792
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 1,309

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

Last week, violence escalated in Oromia region following the collapse of peace talks, while armed clashes persisted in Amhara region.

Ongoing peace talks between the federal government and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA, also referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane) ended on 21 November without reaching an agreement. The government attributed the failure to the “intransigence” of the OLA/OLF-Shane leadership.² In response, the OLA/OLF-Shane leadership rejected “offers of power” and blamed government representatives for “failing to address the underlying issues affecting the country’s politics and security.”³ This is the second round of peace talks between the two parties that began in early November in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The first round of peace talks, conducted from 27 April to 3 May 2023, similarly ended without reaching an agreement. Senior politicians, including the state minister for Peace, human rights organizations, and people, have expressed their disappointment that the talks were unsuccessful, some denouncing government military actions that were taken during the talks.⁴

In Oromia region, there was an 80% decrease in political violence involving OLA/OLF-Shane between 4 to 10 November – when the second round of peace talks began – compared to the previous weeks. However, violence began to rise in the region prior to the end of the peace talks, with clashes resuming on 11 November. Last week, 19 clashes were reported across 11 of the 20 zones in the region (see map below). Clashes between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the OLF-Shane forces were reported in North Shewa, South West Shewa, Buno Bedele, Borena, and Horo Guduru Wollega zones. A government airstrike on 23 November reportedly targeted OLA/OLF-Shane forces in Buno Bedele zone, resulting in at least 20 reported fatalities.

Armed clashes between the Fano militia and the ENDF continued in Amhara region, with clashes reported in East Gojam and North Wello zones. On 23 November, Fano militias clashed with government security forces and took control of a prison in Woldiya town in North Wello zones. Fano militia withdrew from the town after releasing at least 600 prisoners, including members of the Fano militia. Although the government controls most of Amhara region, large attacks like the one in Woldiya could indicate an increasing capacity among the generally disorganized Fano militias (for more on the background of the conflict in Amhara region, see the EPO Monthly: August 2023).

Finally, in Central Ethiopia region, unidentified armed men attacked students in Welkite town in Gurage zone, resulting in one person being hospitalized. According to witnesses, this attack is identity-based.⁵ This is the second attack against students in November (for more, see the EPO Weekly: 4-10 November 2023). Welkite town is currently under the control of a federal command post, with sporadic violence occurring over the administration and representation of ethnic groups in governance in Welkite town and in the nearby Kebena Special woreda (for more, see the EPO Weekly: 7-13 October 2023).