EPO Weekly: 2-8 December 2023

• By the Numbers: Ethiopia, 2-8 December 2023
• Total number of political violence events: 16
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 32
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 8

• By the Numbers: Ethiopia, 2 December 2022-8 December 2023
• Total number of political violence events: 1,256
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 3,373
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 1,276

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

Airstrikes and battles persisted in Amhara region, while attacks against Orthodox Christians and clashes were reported in Oromia region last week. Meanwhile, hundreds of arrests were made in the capital city, Addis Ababa, over a planned anti-war protest.

In Amhara region, the government has continued its use of drone strikes, with at least two strikes reported during the week, resulting in an estimated 20 fatalities. On 5 December, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) targeted Fano forces gathered between Menz and Merabite town in North Shewa zone with multiple strikes, killing at least 10 people, including civilians. A second drone strike occurred near Wegeltena town in South Wello zone, again resulting in 10 fatalities, including civilians. In an interview published on a government-affiliated media outlet, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula — Chief of Staff of the ENDF — admitted that the ENDF was relying on drone strikes, and vowed to continue targeting gatherings of “extremists.”² Additionally, last week, battles between the ENDF and Fano militia were reported in Bahir Dar town and Bugna Aradom and Robit towns in North Wello zone (see map below).

In Oromia region, attacks against Orthodox Christians continued in Arsi zone. On 4 December, an unidentified armed group attacked Orthodox Christians in Tiyo Lebu kebele in Shirka woreda, Arsi zone, resulting in five fatalities. Dozens of fatalities have been reported over the last two weeks in similar attacks at this location (for more, see the EPO Weekly: 25 November – 1 December 2023). Clashes between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA, referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane) and ENDF forces were also reported in the same area last week. Additional clashes between these groups were reported in North Shewa zone.

In the capital, Addis Ababa, the joint task force — which consists of various security sectors, including the federal police — announced the arrest of more than 100 people after accusing them of planning to “create chaos and disorder” during a planned anti-war protest on 10 December.³ The joint council of political parties in Addis Ababa released a statement calling the planned protest “inappropriate and untimely.”⁴ Among the arrested was the chairman of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, and a former member of the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) party. After publicly criticizing the government for banning the anti-war protests, the State Minister of Peace, Taye Dendea, was sacked from his position on 11 December and was arrested the next day.⁵ Government-affiliated media accused the former state minister of collaborating with “anti-peace forces and planning to remove the government through unrest and armed struggle.”⁶ After the breakdown of peace talks between the Ethiopian government and the OLA/OLF-Shane he denounced the government’s military operations against OLA/OLF-Shane that were taken during the talks.⁷

With the exception of Oromia and Amhara regions, the rest of Ethiopia continues to be peaceful, with little political violence reported. This is a significant change when compared to recent years, when violence in Ethiopia’s south and in Benshangul/Gumuz contributed to a large portion of the overall political violence reported in the country (for more on conflict trends in Ethiopia, see the EPO Monthly: September 2023).