EPO Weekly: 26 June-2 July 2021

• Total number of organized violence events: 1,628
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence: 8,319
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 4,434

• Total number of organized violence events: 8
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence: 141
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 41

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

Following a heavy offensive last week by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) into central Tigray, on 28 June 2021, Ethiopian federal forces and their Eritrean allies withdrew from the Tigray region as TPLF forces swept forward to take control of the regional capital, Mekele. As TPLF forces advanced, the federal government announced a unilateral ceasefire that will last until the “end of the farming season” which usually falls around November (Amhara Media Corporation, 28 June 2021). The decision taken by the Ethiopian government to withdraw troops from the region was influenced by several factors discussed in detail in the weekly focus below. 

Despite the unilateral ceasefire, fighting was prolonged in areas north of Shire town, where local reports indicate that Eritrean troops and TPLF forces traded gunfire in Adi Diaro town. TPLF forces have not yet entered western Tigray which is currently controlled by police and militia forces from the neighboring Amhara region.

The exact amount of damage inflicted on the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies is difficult to estimate as military troops were evacuated quickly in the face of the TPLF advance. Further, hundreds of soldiers from both armies are thought to have been killed during the latest TPLF offensive prior to the ceasefire, and as many as 7,000 troops of the Ethiopian army — the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) — were reported by international journalists to have been taken captive (NYT, 2 July 2021). Government sources have stated that while some members of the ENDF 'surrendered instead of killing civilians,' the number of ENDF members held captive by TPLF is exaggerated (Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation, 3 July 2021). 

Election Disputes Update

According to Ethiopian electoral regulations, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) was expected to announce the official outcome of the election 10 days after voting had closed (The Ethiopian Electoral, Political Parties Registration and Election’s Code of Conduct Proclamation No. 1162/2019, Article 62). NEBE announced that 618 of the 942 election results for both the House of People’s Representatives and the regional councils have been sent to NEBE’s headquarters. However, a number of incorrectly filed disputes are preventing the NEBE from officially publishing voting tallies (NEBE press briefing, 29 June 2021). According to the NEBE, various political parties have submitted election-related disputes involving 160 electoral constituencies (NEBE press briefing, 29 June 2021). Consultations with the political parties who filed electoral disputes are ongoing, and legal experts have been hired to help parties re-submit their dispute claims in the correct manner.