EPO Weekly: 27 March-2 April 2021

By the Numbers: Ethiopia, 2 April 2018-2 April 2021¹

• Total number of organized violence events: 1,409
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence: 6,249
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 3,657

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

Pressure is mounting on the central government of Ethiopia as multiple conflicts continue to rage throughout the state. Despite intensified efforts by various factions of Ethiopia’s armed forces, in areas of Tigray, Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regions, there is a continuing trend of increasing militant activity, ethnicized conflict, and high-fatality events. In many of these conflicts, the Amhara ethnic group is targeted by different armed groups, but often with Oromo militant or security groups. That is mirroring a political clash nationally, which is being experienced locally, as emboldened violent movements challenge borders and population composition. As national elections approach in June, numerous high-fatality events like those that occurred last week raise questions about the government’s capacity to deal with armed groups operating within its boundaries.

Tigray Conflict Update

Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region remains unstable. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed admitted that the government is involved in a “difficult and tiresome” insurgency led by loyalists to the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) (The Guardian, 4 April 2021). At the end of March 2021, there was active fighting in Asgede Tsimbila, areas surrounding Zana, Samre, Hawzen, Tekeze river from Birkuta to Golonco, MayKnetal, Kola Tembien, Maychew, and Gijet areas. As access to Tigray continues to open, reports by journalists have revealed patterns of mass killings, rape, looting, and other abuses by the Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers occupying parts of the region (Reuters, 25 January 2021, CNN, 2 April 2021). For instance, CNN uncovered a video of the mass killing of 11 unarmed men near Mahibere Dego by members of the Ethiopian army (CNN, 2 April 2021). This adds to the growing number of mass civilian killings being reported from the region, including a recent Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) preliminary report showing that more than 100 civilians were killed between 18-29 November 2020 in Axum (Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), 24 March 2021).

Facing mounting pressure from the international community, on 26 March, PM Abiy Ahmed announced the withdrawal of Eritrean troops from the country on the same day (BBC, 26 March 2021). Shortly after, on 30 March, Eritrean soldiers were accused of killing at least two civilians in an area near the border with Sudan (Sudan Tribune, 30 March 2021). They likewise continued operations north-east of Shire (Western Tigray).