EPO Weekly: 30 October-5 November 2021

• Total number of organized violence events: 2,150
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence: 12,539
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 5,772

• Total number of organized violence events: 27
• Total number of reported fatalities from organized violence: 131
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 41

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

The loss of Dessie and Kombolcha towns in the South Wello zone in the Amhara region to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces last week sparked concerns throughout the country that TPLF forces would move further south and threaten the capital city, Addis Ababa, and other locations throughout the country. This led the federal government to declare a state of emergency on 2 November. The following section will further examine the terms of the state of emergency and the ongoing concerns surrounding Addis Ababa.

Throughout the week, the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), Amhara regional special forces, and Amhara militias continued to clash with TPLF forces in and around Dessie and Kombolcha towns in the Amhara region. On 4 November, the government alliance reportedly regained control of Kobo town in North Wello in the Amhara region and Waja town in the Tigray region — areas that had been held by TPLF forces for several months. 

ENDF, Afar regional special forces, and Afar militias also continued to clash with TPLF forces in Chifra and Asagita in Awsi-Zone 1 in the Afar region...

Weekly Focus: The State of Emergency and the Current Status of Addis Ababa

Last week, as noted, the government of Ethiopia announced a state of emergency after TPLF forces gained control of Dessie and Kombolcha towns. Concurrently, OLF-Shane announced that its forces had gained control of Kemise in the Oromia zone in the Amhara region. These territorial gains created a panic that TPLF forces would move on Addis Ababa, around 235 kilometers to the south. Some international media outlets erroneously reported that Addis Ababa was surrounded by TPLF and OLF-Shane forces...

Election Update

Last week, the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) suspended the upcoming general election in Benshangul/Gumuz region due to the new state of emergency restrictions (NEBE, 5 November 2021). In mid-October, NEBE released a new election timeline for the delayed general election in Benshangul/Gumuz region due to security concerns...