EPO Weekly: 4-10 March 2023

• Total number of political violence events: 1,196
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 6,416
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 2,694

• Total number of political violence events: 7
• Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 33
• Total number of reported fatalities from civilian targeting: 10

Ethiopia data are available through a curated EPO data file as well as the main ACLED export tool.

Situation Summary

Violence in Ethiopia continued to subside over the past few weeks, although several armed clashes, violence targeting civilian events, and protests were reported. 

In Oromia region, protests in connection with the recently announced administrative changes over East Borena zone continued, with demonstrators denouncing the government’s decision to create a new administrative area without consulting residents affected by the change. Protests were paused as traditional elders and representatives from the zone met with officials from Oromia region and the federal government, but are likely to resume after higher officials declared the decision to create the new zone “irreversible.”² (For more information on the recent protests in Gujji, see EPO Weekly: 25 February-3 March 2023.)

Also in Oromia region, violence against ethnic Oromo civilians was reported along the Oromia/Somali regional borders in the context of a disputed well. Clashes in this area are common, and a large number of fatalities occurred in this border region during the conflict in 2016-18.³ Recently, heightened tensions continued in the area after three ethnic Somalis were killed in January by Oromo ethnic militias demonstrating against the building of a water well. In eastern Oromia, government forces reportedly killed 20 Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane militants as a result of military operations carried out during the week in Degdegela woreda, East Shewa zone. 

In Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, a violent demonstration by drivers of three-wheeled taxis (known locally as Bajaj) was held following an announcement by the Addis Ababa Transport Bureau banning them from operating on main roads in the city. Security forces injured an unknown number of drivers while dispersing the gathering. 

In Amhara region, peace talks were held between the Amhara regional government and the Agew Shengo militant group operating in Amhara region’s Wag Hamra zone. Peace talks with the Agew Shengo are significant, as the Agew Democratic Movement — a political arm associated with ethno-nationalist Agew movements, from which former members made up Agew Shengo — has allied with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the OLF-Shane since November 2021 under the anti-government coalition called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces to “totally dismantle the existing government either by force or negotiation.”⁴ The peace talks are likewise significant as the Agew Shengo allegedly conducted several operations against forces from Amhara region and the federal government during the conflict. Parts of Wag Hamra zone have remained outside government control due to the insurgency.⁵ As a result, Wag Hamra zone has remained one of the most inaccessible areas for humanitarian access throughout the conflict (see EPO Monthly: November 2021 for more details on the Agew Democratic Movement and its history).⁶

In Tigray region, officials announced the finalization of their preparations to establish an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) as agreed in the Pretoria peace agreement. According to the deputy chairperson of the IRA, positions were filled during a conference held on 2-4 March in accordance with a power-sharing agreement to include the TPLF, the military, opposition groups, and scholars.⁷ Several opposition parties from Tigray region boycotted the conference, questioning the legitimacy of the TPLF to lead the process. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Ethiopia next week and will meet with representatives from the federal government and from Tigray region.⁸