EPO Weekly Update (14 May 2024)

Situation Summary

Last week in Ethiopia, armed clashes were reported in Amhara region, with civilians wounded in the crossfire. Elsewhere, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited a key town in west Oromia, and an attack against civilians was reported in Gambela region.

Civilians in Amhara injured in ENDF-Fano crossfire

In Amhara region, battles between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and Fano militias were reported in South Wello, North Wello, North Shewa, and West Gojam zones. In North Wello zone, a number of civilians who were traveling from Dessie town to Woldiya town were wounded in a crossfire during clashes between Fano militias and the ENDF troops along the road.¹ This road — the A2 highway — was closed by security forces from late February to mid-April due to insecurity. 

Clashes between the government and Fano militias have been ongoing across Amhara region since April 2023 (for more, see the EPO Monthly: April 2023 and EPO Monthly: August 2023). On 13 May, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed asked armed groups in Amhara region to find peaceful solutions.² In April, the National Dialogue Commission called on armed groups to participate in the dialogue, offering guarantees of protection for participating representatives.³ Last week, a Fano representative from Gojam indicated that it had not been officially invited and that it would not participate due to the government’s heavy influence over the Commission.⁴ The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — has likewise indicated that it was not officially invited and will not participate. The Commission admitted that it has not sent an official invitation, citing difficulties in locating the armed groups.⁵

Abiy Visits Nekemte

On 8 May, Prime Minister Abiy, along with the deputy prime minister and the Oromia regional state president, attended a pro-government rally in Nekemte town, East Wollega zone. Among other things, while addressing the crowd, Abiy noted that the area was lagging behind in development due to insecurity.⁶  

Despite widespread insecurity due to the ongoing OLA/OLF-Shane insurgency, Oromia region remains a power base for the government. As Abiy begins his seventh year in the premiership, it is likely that he will attempt to expand this base and solidify support in Oromia — his home region⁷ — including west Oromia, where Oromo ethno-nationalist movements like the Oromo Liberation Front party and the OLA/OLF-Shane have a strong presence. Clashes associated with the government’s operations against the OLA/OLF-Shane have been reported since April. Last week, government sources indicated that military operations against the militant group were held in East Shewa, West Shewa, Horo Guduru Wollega, East Wollega, and West Wollega zones.

Violence Against Civilians in Gambela Region

On 5 May, unidentified armed gunmen attacked a public bus near Abol town in Gambela Zuria woreda, Gambela region, resulting in several injuries, including among state police officers who were escorting the bus. The bus was traveling from Itang special woreda to Gambela town. Gambela region was one of the more peaceful locations in Ethiopia for some time. However, violence connected to communal disputes and border incursions from South Sudan has been increasing over the past year.

Ethiopia at a Glance

4 May – 10 May 2024

The data cover the period from 4 May to 10 May 2024. For more information about how ACLED collects data and categorizes events, see the ACLED Codebook. Some events from this coverage period might be included in the data in subsequent weeks due to reporting delays.

• Political Violence Events⁸: 22
• -12% from previous week
• Demonstration Events⁹: 0
• 0% from previous week

Event Types

• Battles: 19 Events
• Explosions/Remote Violence: 0 Event
• Violence Against Civilians: 3 Events
• Mob Violence: 0 Event
• Protests: 0 Event
• Violent Demonstrations: 0 Event