Europe and Central Asia Overview: February 2026

Europe: Farmers continue to protest the EU-Mercosur trade deal

Discontent over the European Union-Mercosur trade agreement continued to fuel mobilization among European farmers in January. ACLED records an all-time high number of demonstrations against the EU-Mercosur deal, with over 550 events across 12 countries. This represents an increase of almost 95% from the month prior, which, until then, was the month with the most demonstrations against the trade agreement. The overall number of demonstrations involving farmers across the continent, however, declined by around half from December 2025, when discontent was also voiced over sanitary measures and EU agricultural subsidies.

Nearly half of the demonstrations against the trade deal took place in France,  followed by Greece, Spain, Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Poland. Farmers staged multi-day road blockades, organized convoys of hundreds of tractors, and dumped manure and hay bales in front of EU and government buildings. While peaceful in the vast majority of cases, farmers in France and Spain clashed with police or set objects on fire on more than 20 occasions. 

The increase in demonstrations took place as officials from the EU and South America’s Mercosur bloc signed the free trade agreement on 17 January in Paraguay, after 25 years of negotiations.¹ Only a few days later, on 21 January, the European Parliament voted for a legal review of the deal by the European Court of Justice, potentially delaying its implementation by up to two years.² Regardless, on 23 January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the agreement was likely to take effect on a provisional basis as soon as at least one Mercosur country ratified it, potentially in March 2026.³ Meanwhile, the EU-India free trade agreement — which von der Leyen dubbed the “mother of all deals” — was signed on 27 January, but did not trigger similar protests by farmers, as it left out sensitive agricultural sectors.⁴

France: The assassination of a Corsican nationalist leader highlights the influence of organized criminality

On 12 January, Alain Orsoni, a prominent figure of modern Corsican nationalism and the co-founder of the National Liberation Front of Corsica, was killed during his mother’s funeral in Vero, Central Corsica. Seemingly carried out by a professional hitman, the assassination took place as part of a series of revenge killings carried out by Corsican criminal organizations that involved Orsoni’s son, who is currently imprisoned for attempted murder, and the group Le Petit Bar. This violence ahead of the assassination led some analysts to claim that Orsoni was killed as a proxy for his son, interpreting it as a sign of the unwavering influence of criminal networks on the island.⁵ 

Leading nationalist activists and officials have increasingly turned to the fight against “mafia-like” groups on the island,⁶ leading to a sizable demonstration in Bastia on 15 November 2025. After Orsoni’s death, the Archbishop of Corsica urged all Corsicans to continue to rally against “fatalism and death.”⁷ Though Orsoni’s assassination highlights the enduring legacy of revenge killings among Corsican criminal organizations and nationalist militants on the island, it seems unlikely to lead to a resurgence of activity by Corsican militants. After a spate of attacks on properties owned by mainlanders in 2022 and 2023, which followed the assassination of imprisoned militant Yvan Colonna by a fellow inmate, nationalist militants have largely refrained from engaging in violent activity. ACLED records only six bombings in 2024 and just one in 2025. This followed an agreement in 2024 over a constitutional bill planning to grant the Corsican Assembly extended legislative power, though its implementation is still pending.

See more of ACLED’s coverage on France.

Greenland: People take to the streets over threats of US annexation

On 17 January, demonstrations took place across Greenland and Denmark in response to renewed threats from the United States to annex Greenland. In Greenland, people took to the streets of the capital, Nuuk, as well as the towns of Qaqortoq, Aasiaat, and Ilulissat. Media estimate that up to 5,000 people attended the rally in Nuuk — up to 25% of the city’s population — making it one of the largest protests in the city’s history.⁸ In Denmark, demonstrations in solidarity with Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, took place in seven cities. Up to 20,000 people took part in the demonstration in Copenhagen, including government and city officials.⁹ These demonstrations contributed to January being the month with the most combined demonstrations in Greenland and Denmark since June 2025. In June 2025, demonstrations were driven by the Israel-Palestine conflict, as well as opposition to a legislative bill that allowed US military bases on Danish soil.

The latest wave of demonstrations took place after US President Donald Trump renewed threats to take control of Greenland in the wake of the US military operation in Venezuela at the beginning of the month. Trump initially refused to rule out the use of force in Greenland and threatened tariffs on European countries that didn’t agree with his plans.¹⁰ He eventually backed down on 21 January after a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, during which the two agreed to a deal on Arctic security, which Trump claims is paramount to US national security.¹¹ Though demonstrations have ceased for now, with the last protest recorded on 24 January in Denmark, the details of this Arctic security deal are unclear. Renewed threats on Greenlandic sovereignty by the Trump administration, or a sidelining of Greenlandic and Danish authorities in the Arctic deal, are likely to spark new protests in the otherwise quiet territory of Greenland.

Russia: Ukraine doubles down on targeting Russian oil exports and hits local energy infrastructure

In January, Ukraine pivoted its aerial campaign against Russia’s energy sector to focus more on impacting critical export capacities. Although the number of strikes targeting oil and gas infrastructure inside Russian territory almost halved in January compared to December, Ukrainian forces carried out an attack on the gas terminal in Volna, as well as maritime attacks in both the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. While the initial campaign against Russia’s oil industry, which intensified in August 2025, only led to partial shortages in Russia’s internal market, the recent shift in targets — in tandem with Western sanctions on Russian oil — is having a greater economic impact and is likely to continue. In January, Russian oil and gas revenues reached a five-year low, while the volume of Russian oil stuck at sea reached record levels.¹² Separately, war-risk insurance premiums in the Russian Black Sea have more than doubled over the past year, reaching 1% of the value of a ship’s hull in January.¹³ 

Despite a slowdown in strikes on domestic energy infrastructure, attacks caused blackouts in the districts of Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk, disrupting heating and water supplies. On 8 January, an attack on the city of Belgorod left 600,000 residents without power, heat, or water.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor. 

Ukraine: Russia plunges Ukraine into its worst energy crisis amid freezing temperatures

Throughout January, Russian forces conducted over 130 strikes that damaged energy infrastructure in Ukraine — more than triple the monthly average throughout the war. The strikes damaged power plants, substations, gas pipelines, and other energy facilities in 15 regions across the country, as well as Kyiv city. The Russian campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure accelerated in September ahead of the cold season, a trend observed nearly every year since 2022. In January, lasting subzero temperatures and continued strain on the energy grid plunged settlements across nearly the entire country into prolonged darkness and disrupted heating and water supply for millions of people. 

According to Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, attacks on 20 and 23 January left up to 85% of consumers across the country without electricity.¹⁴ As of 28 January, some 700 settlements across 11 regions remained without electricity amid harsh winter conditions, while scheduled blackouts continued throughout the whole country to reduce the load on the damaged power system.¹⁵ Emergency and repair crews have been working around the clock, despite the high risks. Russian drones targeted energy workers in the regions of Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Donetsk, as well as Kyiv city, last month. 

In the aftermath of a first round of US-mediated talks between Russian and Ukrainian envoys in the United Arab Emirates in late January, Russia agreed to a brief ceasefire on strikes targeting energy infrastructure between 30 January and 1 February. The day after the ceasefire ended, Russian forces resumed these target attacks, once again causing widespread blackouts.¹⁶ 

Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Russian offensives continued across the frontlines throughout the month, though at a slower pace compared to December. Russian forces occupied at least 20 settlements in January, most of them in the Zaporizhia region, where fighting escalated sharply in October and has been on the rise since. 

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.