Europe and Central Asia Overview: July 2024

Armenia-Azerbaijan: Baku warns against ‘provocations’

Despite a sole armed clash occurring on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in July, tensions appear to be far from subsiding in the absence of a peace treaty between the two states. On 21 July, Azerbaijan alleged that Armenian forces targeted its positions in the Kalbajar region with large-caliber weapons¹ — a rare departure from routine allegations of small-arms fire. A week later, Azerbaijan claimed it had intercepted an Armenian reconnaissance drone in the Lachin area. Azerbaijan pledged retaliation for what it deems are Armenian provocations in light of Armenia’s acquisition of French weapons, as well as the recent approval of European Union military aid for Armenia and a United States-Armenian military drill.² Peace talks appear to be stalling, as a meeting between foreign ministers in Washington, DC, on 10 July seemingly did not produce a clearer timeline for treaty conclusion, and a meeting of leaders at a European summit in the United Kingdom failed to materialize. Separately, Armenia held talks with Turkey with the view of partially reopening their shared border, which was met with striking criticism in the Azerbaijani press.

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Belarus: Russian drones veer off course

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine may have started spilling over into its ally Belarus, which had hitherto stayed away from the war despite enabling Russia’s initial invasion. Since mid-July, Russian attack drones have repeatedly strayed deep into Belarusian airspace.³ On 16 July, one of them crashed in Gomel region. Another sighting of the drones flying over the same region occurred on 30 July. Reported scrambling of Belarusian military aircraft attempting to intercept the drones may suggest that the incidents are not friendly overflights en route to targets in Ukraine.⁴ Earlier in July, Belarus escalated tensions with Ukraine by deploying missiles, including nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, closer to its shared border, ostensibly in response to alleged increased Ukrainian military posture in the area.⁵ The Belarusian forces shortly withdrew, with President Aleksandr Lukashenko citing a reciprocal withdrawal by Ukraine.⁶ In a separate event, Belarusian and Chinese militaries staged an 11-day-long drill close to the Polish border.

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France: Rail and internet infrastructure sabotaged 

Suspected far-left activists sabotaged French rail and telecommunication networks ahead of and during the Olympic Games. On the eve of the opening ceremony on 26 July, unidentified perpetrators set fire to railway line cables north, east, and southwest of Paris, severely disrupting high-speed rail traffic from and to the capital for three days. An anonymous (likely left-wing) group claimed responsibility, issuing a list of grievances ranging from dissatisfaction with capitalism to suppressing the pro-independence movement in New Caledonia. A smaller-scale coordinated attack on infrastructure occurred on 29 July, targeting the country’s fiber-optic networks of four operators. The disruptions that resulted from severed cables affected at least 17 of 96 French mainland departments. Messages criticizing nuclear waste management and government handling of the New Caledonia riots were found at the sabotage sites, one of which was near a fan zone east of Paris. Attaque, a far-left group, claimed responsibility. The sabotage occurred despite French security forces being on high alert for possible attacks coinciding with the Olympics. On 21 July, they arrested a suspected Russian intelligence operative in Paris on charges of plotting destabilizing actions, in addition to another likely Russian agent detained a month earlier.⁷

See also ACLED Brief: Is radical group violence on the rise in the EU?

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Russia: Military airfields and power grid come under attack

The spillover of Russia’s war against Ukraine onto Russian internationally recognized territory reached another high in July. ACLED records a more than 20% increase in the number of likely Ukrainian drone strikes in July compared to June, and the number in June was already nearly double that of May. While the border regions of Belgorod and Kursk were subjected to about 97% of the strikes, the drones also reached the far-flung Arctic Murmansk region for the first time, allegedly damaging two Russian strategic bombers parked on an airfield. Ukrainian forces also targeted Russian airfields and ammunition storage sites in Astrakhan, Krasnodar, Kursk, Rostov, Ryazan, Voronezh, and Volgograd regions, as well as in North Ossetia. Ukrainian drones continued striking Russian fuel infrastructure in border regions and increasingly targeted the Russian power grid, with major electricity outages occurring in the Belgorod and Rostov regions on 1 and 9 July, respectively, cumulatively affecting over half a million people. The deteriorating security situation in areas adjacent to border areas prompted the state to impose no-go zones in the Belgorod region as of 23 July.⁸

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Ukraine: Russia intensifies its assault on the Donetsk region

With the number of battles in Ukraine further increasing by about 13% in July, Russian forces focused on occupying the remainder of the Donetsk region. ACLED records over 1,000 battle events, 22% more than in June. As a result, Ukraine lost an additional 15 settlements in the region, of which 11 were in the area of the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Russian forces also doubled down on capturing the town of Toretsk while stalling in and near their previous main target of Chasiv Yar further north after occupying the easternmost part of the settlement. They also intensified attacks in the southern part of the region. 

The number of events targeting civilians reached levels previously seen in the summer of 2022, mostly due to Russian aerial bombing and shelling in the Donetsk region. At the same time, Russia increased levels of remote violence in the government-controlled part of the Kherson region. Russian forces reportedly killed more than 170 Ukrainian civilians in July, 48 of whom were killed during the mass Russian missile attack on central Ukraine on 8 July. This resulted in 34 fatalities in Kyiv city alone, where Russian missiles struck, among other targets, a hospital for seriously ill children and a maternity clinic. Despite no longer being the deadliest conflict due to the crisis in Gaza, Ukraine remained one of the most violent countries in the world in the past 12 months, with nearly 800 political violence events occurring weekly, according to the mid-year update of the ACLED Conflict Index. 

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.

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United Kingdom: Far-right demonstrations turn violent  

A stabbing rampage has triggered far-right mobilization across England. On 29 July, a British-born youth of Rwandan descent killed three girls and injured three other children and eight adults at a dance class in Southport, northwest of Liverpool.⁹ His motives remain unclear. Subsequent online disinformation about the identity of the perpetrator set in motion a wave of violent far-right demonstrations aimed at Muslims and immigrants. On the day following the attack, hundreds of supporters of the hitherto deemed defunct English Defense League (EDL) converged on a mosque in Southport. The hurling of objects, Islamophobic chants, and clashes with police ensued. Rioters set a police van alight and injured several police officers. On 31 July, the riots spread across England, with far-right supporters targeting hotels housing migrants in Aldershot and Manchester. Police arrested about 100 rioters in Downing Street in London. The riots continued into early August and were met with anti-racism counter-protests. 

While seemingly in response to the stabbing, the riots followed notable acts of nativist mobilization earlier in the month. On 27 July, before the stabbing attacks took place, about 15,000 people joined a nativist march in London led by Tommy Robinson, a far-right agitator previously associated with the EDL. About 5,000 counter-demonstrators turned up as well, but the event passed peacefully. Separately, a riot occurred in the Harehills area of Leeds on 18 July 2024 after a dispute involving a Roma family in a child protection case. Participants set a public bus on fire and clashed with police.

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