Europe and Central Asia Overview: July 2026

Albania: Kushner’s luxury resort sparks a massive protest wave

Albanians launched mass protests in June over plans for a coastal luxury resort by an investment firm founded by United States President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner. The movement led to the highest number of demonstrations recorded in a single month since ACLED started monitoring Albania in 2018. ACLED records 45 protests opposing the development — which includes the island Sazan, a flamingo habitat — and calling for Prime Minister Edi Rama to resign. Rama, who has been in power since 2013, has long faced accusations of corruption within his government. 

The protests began on 30 May at the construction site in Zvërnec, where an altercation with private security concluded with criminal proceedings against 15 people, before spreading to the capital, Tirana, and other cities across the country. Protesters used flamingos as a mascot to draw attention to the devastation of the protected area and the lack of transparency surrounding the investment. The demonstrations have since taken place on a daily basis in Tirana and abroad, bringing several societal groups in Albania and diaspora communities to the streets. Rather than confronting the movement with force, the government appears to be waiting for it to lose momentum. But with Rama determined to proceed with the investment, the protests are likely to persist in the capital in the coming weeks.

This is not the first time Kushner’s firm, Affinity Partners, has faced intense resistance to its activity in the region. Last year, Affinity Partners’ plans to build a hotel at a protected cultural site in Belgrade were halted after protests for similar reasons. 

Monaco: A bomb attack in Monaco appears to target a sanctioned Ukrainian-born businessman

On 29 June, three people were wounded as a result of an explosive device detonated at the entrance of a residential building in Monaco. One of them, Vadym Yermolayev, was reportedly a businessman born in Ukraine who was placed under Ukrainian sanctions in 2023 due to business activity in Russian-occupied Crimea. So far, no one has been arrested, and no motive has been confirmed. French investigators suggest Ukraine’s Security Service was involved, while Ukrainian and French media sources paint the bombing as connected to Yermolayev’s son’s cooperation in an investigation of the call center scamming industry that operates mostly from Dnipro.

While the circumstances are under investigation, the attack is the latest in a series of high-profile incidents targeting individuals linked to Russia or Ukraine across Europe since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. ACLED records at least nine such events since February 2022, including the shooting of Russian artist Robert Kuzovkov in the Polish town of Biała Podlaska in June 2026, which Polish authorities suspect may be linked to Russia, as well as the fatal shootings in Spain of dissident Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov in February 2024 and former Ukrainian official Andriy Portnov outside a school in May 2025. While the attack on Kuzminov was widely attributed to Russian intelligence, the motive behind the attack on Portnov remains unknown. Regardless of the individual motivations behind these attacks, sustained shadow war activities across Europe suggest that similar incidents are likely to continue.

Russia: Ukraine launches a record number of drone attacks amid mass fuel shortages

In June, Ukraine increased its drone and missile strikes on Russian territory, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a “40-day influence operation” to carry out mid-range and long-range strikes on Russian territory.

On 17 and 18 June, Russia intercepted a record 992 Ukrainian drones in a single day, including nearly 200 drones over Moscow in response to Russia’s attack on Kyiv city on 14 and 15 June. This attack, the largest on Moscow since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, hit the oil refinery in Kapotnya for the second time in one week. Attacks at this scale are capable of saturating Russian air defenses and overwhelming their capacity to intercept every drone in a mass strike. This means that even a limited number that penetrates air defenses can inflict significant damage. Earlier in June, Ukraine launched several attacks on St. Petersburg during the city’s annual International Economic Forum, striking two oil terminals and one oil depot. These attacks are part of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, which has triggered long lines at gas stations and prompted fuel restrictions across 56 Russian regions. 

In an interview with Russian state television, Putin made a rare acknowledgment of the fuel shortages. Russia has already responded to the energy crisis by imposing a temporary ban on jet fuel exports and ramping up imports of jet fuel from Belarus, now arriving at nearly four times last year’s rate. The government is also weighing an export ban on diesel, reportedly requesting a one-off gasoline shipment from Kazakhstan, and drafting tax code amendments to adjust subsidies for gasoline imports.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor. 

United Kingdom: British forces seize a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the English Channel 

On 14 June, British forces boarded and seized the shadow fleet oil tanker Smyrtos, which is sanctioned by the United Kingdom, in the English Channel. The seizure, which was the first of its kind carried out by the UK, was a joint operation of the Royal Marines Commandos and National Crime Agency officers. Smyrtos had been transporting more than 100,000 tonnes of Russian oil and was en route from the Russian port of Ust-Luga to Egypt. The tanker was sailing under the flag of Cameroon, which had stripped the vessel from its registry earlier in June. Smyrtos’ stateless status provided the UK with the legal justification for boarding. After sanctioned cargo was found, the ship was seized, and its captain was charged with breaching sanctions. The entire operation was conducted in coordination with France, which already has a track record of boarding sanctioned shadow fleet vessels. France also seized a shadow fleet oil tanker that failed a nationality check off the coast of Sicily on 23 June. European countries have been taking increasingly assertive steps to disrupt Russia's shadow fleet, which functions not only as a mechanism for evading sanctions but also as a platform for Russian hybrid operations.

Two days after the UK operation, the Russian military frigate Admiral Grigorovich, which earlier had been spotted escorting shadow fleet tankers through the English Channel, fired warning shots close to a British civilian yacht near the Isle of Wight. UK authorities assessed the incident as a measure taken to avoid a collision rather than deliberate escalation, though it highlights the ongoing threat posed by Russian naval escorts in European waters. More importantly, while these seizures increase the cost of sanctions evasion for Russia, they are not stopping Russia’s oil export revenue — or the shadow fleet’s hybrid warfare function.

Ukraine: Ukrainian drones strangle Crimea’s supply lines

In the late spring of 2025 (May-June), the ground dried in eastern Ukraine, allowing Russian forces to push forward and make some territorial gains. This year, the weather change did not allow Russia to make any gains, and it is unlikely to achieve any such operational breakthrough in the short term. A combination of Ukrainian ground counter-attacks and a campaign of mid-range drone strikes compromises troop rotations and supply chains. Russian forces continued to focus their heaviest attacks on Pokrovsk, the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka belt, and Huliaipole, but made no significant progress.

Nowhere has the effect of Ukraine’s strike campaign been clearer than in occupied Crimea. ACLED records over 100 Ukrainian drone and missile strikes in occupied Crimea in June, up from 21 in May — the highest monthly volume recorded since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The strikes were part of Ukraine’s attempt to affect the supply links sustaining Russian forces on the southern front, as well as to challenge Russia's grip on the peninsula that it has held as a symbol of its 2014 annexation. The strikes hit oil terminals at Kerch, power plants, major substations, and a railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal; the ferry route and Port of Kavkaz across the Kerch Strait; and the overland corridor through occupied Kherson. This led to logistical and humanitarian issues for the population of Crimea. On 21 June, occupation authorities banned fuel sales for civilian purposes, and on 26 June, they declared a state of emergency in the peninsula. At the same time, blackouts became frequent in parts of the peninsula with only a few hours of electricity a day, right at the start of the tourist season. 

According to Zelenskyy, this was enabled to a large extent by Russia’s decision to move hundreds of air defense launchers to protect Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, leaving other areas less protected. As the campaign has succeeded so far, Ukraine is likely to continue, with more strikes on the Kerch Bridge a possible next step. Russia has responded to these strikes by increasing the air defenses around the bridge and occasionally closing it, but so far, these measures have not prevented the strikes.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.