Europe and Central Asia Overview: June 2026

Eastern Europe: Stray drones test frontier states’ air defense

Over the course of May, Ukrainian drone overflights and accidental landings in Baltic region states’ territory, as well as a Russian drone hitting an apartment building in Romania, tested the NATO eastern flank governments’ relations with Ukraine and the overall NATO response to recurring drone overflights spilling over from Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

As Ukraine continued its campaign of disabling Russian oil terminals in the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, at least a dozen long-range drones launched at Russia strayed into the airspace and territory of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland in May. This was more than double the number recorded for the first four months of the year. While ACLED records no significant damage from these events, they continue to expose the vulnerability of NATO’s eastern flank states to drone incursions and increase the likelihood of Ukrainian drones straying into NATO territory, which could compromise its relations with states in the region. In Latvia, the inability of the country’s air defense to protect against smaller drones led to the dismissal of the minister of defense and the dissolution of an already frail cabinet. Ukraine’s leadership extended its apologies and offered support in strengthening the affected countries’ air defense.¹ 

NATO eastern flank states seem more than willing to absorb Ukrainian air defense expertise, which Ukraine has developed over the past four years to combat deadly Russian one-way attack and surveillance drones. In 2026, NATO and Ukraine prepared to scale up joint drone defense funding for up to 50 million euros (about 58 million US dollars), while the most exposed countries, including Poland, the Baltic states, and Finland, have pushed for the European Union-proposed “Eastern Flank Watch”² to expand anti-drone and electronic warfare capacities in these countries.

The threat of Russian drones to NATO states was apparent on 29 May, when a Russian Geran-2 drone carrying an explosive charge struck an apartment building in the Romanian city of Galați situated close to the border with Ukraine and Moldova. The drone, which strayed from a wave of strikes aiming at the Ukrainian Danube ports, injured two civilians. It marked the first victims of Russian aggression since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine — albeit accidental — on Romanian territory. The country’s air defense system was activated but failed to intercept the drone.

As both Russia and Ukraine expand their use of long-range drones and electronic countermeasures, NATO’s eastern flank states will likely face increasing airspace violations — a trend established when Russian drones entered Polish airspace and landed across the country in September 2025, testing both their air defense capabilities and the broader alliance’s response threshold.

Netherlands: Violent anti-migration demonstrations spread across the country

Throughout May, the Netherlands saw a significant wave of protests in response to the Dispersal Act, which aims to distribute asylum seekers across the country’s regions and municipalities. ACLED records 45 anti-migration events across 17 different locations, more than a 150% increase from April. Of these, more than 20 turned violent. On 12 May, in Nieuw-Loosdrecht, a hotspot of anti-migration protests, rioters threw torches and fireworks at a building housing refugees, setting nearby bushes and trees on fire. In other instances, demonstrators threw fireworks, stones, and bottles at police, leading to dozens of arrests. In some demonstrations, flags and other symbols of extremist far-right organizations such as Defend Netherlands and Identitair Verzet³ were sighted, reflecting the presence of far-right activists from all over the country following messages shared on social media. In addition, women’s marches were also organized to underscore what the organizers allege are risks caused by migrants for women’s and children’s safety, while residents and local entrepreneurs filed lawsuits against municipalities in an attempt to block the opening of asylum seeker centers in various locations across the country. 

In response to this anti-migrant mobilization, ACLED records 17 counter-protests. The violence was widely condemned, including by the members of parliament, though the debate focused on the attacks themselves rather than the underlying disputes over the country’s asylum policy. Given these counter-protests and the fact that several suspects are now facing court appearances, the immediate intensity of these protests may ease in the coming weeks — though the planned construction of new reception centers leaves the potential for renewed flashpoints.

Russia: Ukrainian drones target Moscow, in addition to energy and industrial infrastructure

Ukraine stepped up strikes on the Moscow region in May, further deteriorating Russia’s air defense capacity and damaging its military and energy facilities as part of its sustained campaign of long-range drone and missile strikes across Russia. ACLED records more than 1,070 air- and drone strike events carried out by Ukrainian military forces across Russia in May, including 16 such attacks in the Moscow region and four attacks in Moscow city. On 4 May, a Ukrainian drone hit a luxury 52-storey residential building, the Dom na Mosfilmovskoy, located approximately six kilometers from the Kremlin. In response to Russia’s deadly attack on Kyiv days earlier, on 16 May, Ukraine launched what Russian state media described as the largest drone attack on the Moscow region in more than a year.⁴ The latter attack impacted microelectronics factories, an oil loading station, and the Moscow oil refinery. Despite Russian concerns, Ukraine did not target Moscow’s Victory Day parade on 9 May, which lasted only 45 minutes and did not feature any military hardware due to these concerns.

Ukraine also continued its attacks on Russia’s energy and industrial infrastructure. On 22 and 23 May, a series of strikes deep inside Russia hit the Saratov oil refinery, a chemical plant in Perm Krai, and ammunition depots across the country, while falling drone debris sparked a fire at an oil terminal in Novorossiysk.⁵ The continuous targeting of refineries is further exacerbating fuel shortages and economic strain in Russia.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor. 

Ukraine: Russia’s ground operations fail to achieve gains while air attacks on Ukrainian cities continue

In May, Russia escalated its aerial campaign against Ukrainian cities, including civilian targets. Overnight on 13 and 14 May, Russian military forces carried out the largest aerial attack in terms of the number of drones used over two days. ACLED records more than 250 strikes, reportedly using more than 1,500 drones and 56 missiles,⁶ with a large share of them targeting Kyiv. The attack demolished an apartment building in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district and killed at least 24 civilians. ACLED records more than 3,400 air- and drone strike events conducted by Russian forces in Ukraine in May, continuing the month-on-month escalation seen throughout 2026.

At the same time, on the ground in eastern and southern Ukraine, Russia’s ground offensive continued to falter. Throughout May, Russian forces failed to achieve any significant breakthrough. The heaviest fighting was concentrated near Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and Huliaipole. The grinding continues to cost Russia in terms of manpower.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.