Europe and Central Asia Overview: May 2026

Hungary: Mass electoral mobilization ends Orbán’s 16-year rule

The opposition Tisza party defeated Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz in the parliamentary elections held on 12 April, ending Orbán’s 16-year-long tenure at the helm of Hungary’s government.¹ Tisza, led by former Fidesz member Péter Magyar, secured a two-thirds constitutional majority and the largest share of votes ever won by any Hungarian party in democratic elections. 

The election period saw seven demonstrations in Hungary between 1 and 12 April, with activity increasing around the election date. In a massive citizen mobilization in Budapest, more than 100,000 people gathered for an anti-government concert on 10 April.² On five occasions, anti-government protesters and opposition supporters disrupted Fidesz rallies in previous Fidesz provincial strongholds, following 12 similar events in March. Demonstrators occasionally scuffled with black-hooded pro-government individuals and security guards.³ A limited number of attacks targeted opposition campaigners, although threats of violence were more prevalent than actual violent acts.⁴ The intensity of demonstrations this election period stood in contrast to the relatively calm campaign in April 2022.

The election period also included contested security incidents, disinformation, and an act of foreign endorsement. On 5 April, Serbian police announced they had discovered explosives at the TurkStream gas pipeline. Orbán immediately blamed Ukraine, alleging the explosives were an attempt to cut Russian energy supplies to Hungary. Serbian intelligence later publicly said Ukraine was not involved, suggesting the explosives were United States-made and planted by migrants. The campaign also saw publication of details from Magyar’s private life, the fielding of decoy candidates with identical names to official Tisza candidates, and a visit from US Vice President JD Vance to support Orbán on 7 April.⁵

See more of ACLED’s coverage on Hungary.

Ireland: Protests over fuel prices escalate into nationwide blockades

Between 7 and 14 April, the Republic of Ireland experienced a significant wave of gatherings and “go-slow” vehicle convoys in response to rising oil prices linked to the US-Israel and Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. ACLED records 63 protests staged by disparate online groups of road haulers, farmers, and agricultural contractors calling on authorities to cap fuel prices. In several instances, demonstrators in tractors and trucks blocked access to critical infrastructure, notably the M50 motorway in Dublin and the Whitegate oil refinery in Cork. These events caused severe economic disruption, leading to localized fuel shortages, supply chain disruption, and canceled medical procedures due to road closures.⁶ While the protests were largely nonviolent, the government’s initial refusal to negotiate with demonstrators, along with threats by the Minister of Justice to send the army to clear blockades, exacerbated tensions. In the end, Irish army tow trucks assisted police in Dublin on 11 April.

The crisis resulted in the resignation of Minister of State Michael Healy-Rae and a narrow confidence vote victory for the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition.⁷ In an attempt to curb unrest, the government announced two “support schemes” for bus operators, road haulers, fishers, and farmers, entailing the payment of diesel subsidies amounting to €755 million (around $882 million) and a delay in the introduction of a carbon tax.⁸ Despite these measures, spokespeople for the protesters vowed to continue mobilizing ahead of the budget vote on 6 October, criticizing the government’s late and insufficient response in the face of the mounting expenses and fiscal pressure,⁹ hinting at prolonged social unrest in the country.

Russia: Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to affect crude processing

In April, Ukraine increased the depth and intensity of its drone campaign on Russian territory. Its focus remained on oil and energy infrastructure. ACLED records more than 1140 air- and drone strike events carried out by Ukrainian military forces.

Ukrainian forces struck at least 10 major oil and energy facilities in Russia in April, building on the campaign against the Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga from late March, which together handle 40-50% of Russia’s petroleum product exports.¹⁰ These strikes targeted the NORSI refinery, the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, and Ust-Luga (the fifth strike on the port in roughly two weeks) in the first week of the month alone. Ukrainian forces also managed to hit Tuapse on the Black Sea repeatedly between 16 and 30 April, destroying storage tanks and causing fires that lasted several days and released combustion byproducts that fell as dark rain over Krasnodar Krai, causing a local environmental disaster. Finally, on 29 April, Ukrainian drones hit oil facilities at Perm and Orsk, over 1,700 kilometers from launch areas.

These strikes have had significant impacts on Russian fuel production at a time of increasing economic pressure, with Russian refineries’ average crude processing reportedly falling to the lowest level since December 2009.¹¹ The intensifying campaign coincided with economic reports of the emergence of a banking crisis in Russia.¹²

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor. 

Ukraine: Russia intensifies its air- and drone strikes in Ukraine as the offensive in Donetsk stalls

Russia continued to intensify its aerial campaign in Ukraine in April. ACLED records more than 3,550 air- and drone strike events in Ukraine, which marks yet another month-to-month increase in 2026. Russia launched at least 6,804 long-range drones and missiles over the month.¹³ This escalation happened despite a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire that collapsed almost immediately.

The intensified aerial attacks came as Russian offensive ground operations in eastern Ukraine continued to struggle. Despite the capture of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad — both seized by February — Russian forces were unable to translate these gains into broader operational advances. Fighting remained concentrated around Kostiantynivka, Kupiansk, and the Lyman direction, where Russia’s current offensive approach, a degradation campaign lasting months before launching a ground assault, did not result in any significant gains.¹⁴

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.