Europe and Central Asia Overview: November 2025

Europe: Unidentified drones wreak havoc on airports and military facilities as Russian aerial provocations continue 

In October, disruptions to civilian aviation due to sightings of drones and other aerial objects spread from northern to central and southern Europe. Unidentified drones repeatedly grounded flights at Munich, Frankfurt, and Berlin airports in Germany, as well as at Spain’s Alicante and Palma de Mallorca airports. In Lithuania, meteorological balloons used to smuggle cigarettes from Belarus repeatedly disrupted Vilnius airport. The Lithuanian government closed the last two land border crossings with Belarus and is updating air defense operating procedures.¹ Lithuania and other European Union members have accused Belarus of allowing organized smuggling groups to operate from its territory and airspace, as part of a larger “hybrid” campaign to destabilize the EU.² 

Drone overflights were also reported near military and sensitive industrial areas, raising suspicion of Russian surveillance. Unidentified drones flew over or near three airbases in Germany and three military bases in Belgium, including in Kleine-Brogel, which is believed to host United States nuclear weapons.³ Additionally, drones were sighted near a Thales ammunition factory, a key supplier for Ukraine, near Herstal in Belgium. In Estonia, US and Estonian troops shot down at least one of two drones flying near the Reedo military camp. In eastern Poland, a NATO exercise was stopped, as drones hovering nearby hindered communication and put aircraft at risk. The increased tension around aerial vehicles has also led to tightened scrutiny of amateur pilots: In Germany’s Lower Saxony state, police reported an unsanctioned flight of a small plane by an unwitting pilot over an ammunition depot near Jever.⁴

In October, ACLED records about 20 unauthorized drone overflights across seven EU countries. Hostile drone surveillance of sensitive sites has risen in Europe since September, after up to 20 Russian decoy drones violated Polish airspace and three Russian fighter jets loitered in Estonia’s airspace. In a string of apparent provocations in October, two Russian warplanes briefly violated Lithuania’s airspace, while Poland scrambled its air force to intercept Russian spy planes on three occasions. 

Europe: Sumud flotilla interception boosts pro-Palestine demonstrations

In October, pro-Palestine and anti-Israel demonstrations reached their highest levels across Europe since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023. ACLED records over 930 events throughout the month, of which — similarly to September — over half occurred in Italy and Spain. Israel’s interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla, which was carrying humanitarian aid off the coast of Gaza,⁵ prompted thousands of people to take to the streets across the continent. 

While the vast majority of the gatherings remained peaceful, police forces dispersed and clashed with demonstrators on at least 36 occasions in 11 countries, mostly in Italy, Spain, and France. Police also arrested more than 200 demonstrators in the Hague, Netherlands⁶ and violently dispersed a crowd in Nicosia, Cyprus. In Geneva, Switzerland, around 150 masked rioters joined a peaceful march and clashed with police, leaving five officers injured.⁷ 

The wave of pro-Palestine rallies did not stop in the days after the interception of the flotilla and continued throughout the month, despite the enforcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on 10 October. Notable events include the disruption of port operations in Rotterdam, Netherlands, by environmental and pro-Palestine activists and a series of vandalism targeting businesses perceived as collaborating with Israel during the 15 October labor strikes in Spain.

Georgia: A riot precipitates the government’s crackdown on demonstrators and opposition

On 4 October, tens of thousands of demonstrators converged on Freedom Square in Tbilisi, calling for a boycott of municipal elections held across Georgia on the same day. Most opposition parties did not run in the polls. The standoff between the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) and opposition parties has persisted since the disputed October 2024 parliamentary elections and the subsequent reversal of the country’s pro-EU course, which initially triggered large-scale protests that have evolved into simmering daily protests. ACLED records about 470 related demonstrations since November 2024. Prior to and during the 4 October demonstration, opposition leaders called for “a peaceful revolution.”⁸ However, clashes ensued when some demonstrators attempted to break past a fence at the presidential palace, where they were repelled by riot police. Police detained five opposition leaders, who are facing lengthy prison terms for inciting a coup, alongside over 40 others.⁹ GD claimed landslides in all municipalities.¹⁰  

The ruling party used the riot to intensify its crackdown on demonstrators and opposition writ large, after already restricting assembly rules¹¹ and curtailing the remit of civil society and the media in the first half of the year.¹² On 16 October, the GD-dominated parliament passed amendments to introduce jail terms for offenses related to demonstrations and banished individuals associated with prohibited parties from politics. Dozens of demonstrators were subsequently arrested.¹³ Furthermore, GD asked the Constitutional Court to ban its predecessor, the United National Movement (UNM), and two other major opposition parties, alleging that they pose a threat to the constitutional order.¹⁴ The request comes on the tailwinds of a parliamentary commission’s report, released in September, which accused UNM and the other two parties of multiple crimes, including provoking a war with Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia in 2008.¹⁵

Russia-Ukraine: Russia infiltrates Pokrovsk while Ukraine retaliates for strikes against energy infrastructure 

Around mid-October, following the collapse of Russia-US talks on Ukraine¹⁶ and the introduction of US sanctions against two major Russian oil companies,¹⁷ Russia doubled down on its offensive toward Pokrovsk — a town in the central part of the Donetsk region with a pre-war population of 60,000 that has been in Russia’s crosshairs since September 2024. Similarly to a previous attempt in July 2025, Russian forces infiltrated most of Pokrovsk with small groups of infantry, exploiting the shortage of Ukrainian personnel who rely on drones to stave off attempts to break through with armored vehicles. Rain and fog, which precluded efficient drone use,¹⁸ as well as the concentration of Ukrainian reserves in the nearby Dobropillia area, likely contributed to Russia’s ability to hold onto urban positions this time. 

The fall of Pokrovsk may enable a Russian push to occupy the remainder of the Donetsk region by taking on the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka urban agglomeration. As Russia is pressed to occupy as much of Ukraine as possible before the onset of adverse weather, ACLED records over 2,800 battles in Ukraine in October overall — more than at any point since Russia’s all-out invasion of the country in late February 2022. 

There was also a qualitative change in the air war between the two countries. Russia’s persistent long-range targeting of energy infrastructure may have prompted Ukrainian forces to respond in kind and expand their deep strike campaign beyond oil refineries. Repeated Russian combined drone and missile strikes in October appear to have wiped out 60% of Ukraine’s natural gas extraction capacity concentrated in the eastern Kharkiv and Poltava regions.¹⁹ Russian forces also targeted at least four hydroelectric power plants in the central Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, transmission and storage infrastructure across western Ukraine, and power lines to two operational nuclear power plants.²⁰ The strikes on 9 and 10 October led to a major blackout in Kyiv city. Rolling blackouts occurred across Ukraine throughout the month. 

Ukraine responded with mostly drone strikes on energy transmission hubs across European Russia, repeatedly targeting substations in the Kursk and Ulyanovsk regions, and hitting a thermal power plant in Oryol with a Neptune-D missile on 31 October. In addition to targeting oil refineries in 15 Russian regions — including for the first time in the far-flung Tyumen region — Ukrainian drones struck a gas processing plant in Orenburg. Drone debris was found in neighboring Kazakhstan, which also had to reduce gas output to the Orenburg plant due to damage.²¹ 

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor.