Europe and Central Asia Overview: October 2025

Europe: Pro-Palestine demonstrations gain momentum, spiking in Italy and Spain 

In September, pro-Palestine and anti-Israel demonstrations reached their highest levels across Europe since May 2024. They were sustained by a wave of Palestinian statehood recognitions and mounting backlash against suspected Israeli drone strikes on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla. 

In Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has openly backed the movement and emerged as one of Israel’s most vocal critics, related protest activity more than tripled in September. Tensions peaked on 14 September in Madrid, where over 100,000 demonstrators disrupted the final stage of the Vuelta a España cycling race and forced its cancellation when clashes broke out.¹ In Italy, pro-Palestine demonstrations increased by more than six times, fueled by mobilization efforts from major unions and grassroots labor groups. Clashes notably erupted in Milan on 22 September, when thousands broke through police lines near the central station. At least 60 police officers were injured and 10 people arrested.²

In the United Kingdom, pro-Palestine rallies continued under heightened scrutiny despite the country’s planned recognition of Palestine. Police intervened in several cases where demonstrators expressed support for the banned Palestine Action group, which authorities have linked to sabotage at military sites.³ On 6 September, a silent rally backing the group outside parliament led to a total of 890 arrests.⁴ Meanwhile in France, three pro-Palestine activists were briefly detained in Nice on 5 September after attempting to storm a meeting at a synagogue, according to the local public prosecutor’s office.⁵ Last, in Greece, a pro-Palestine demonstration in Athens on 14 September was marred by a street clash between Israelis and Palestinians that left two injured. Five people were charged with racially motivated violence.⁶

Europe: Russian drones and warplanes probe NATO air defenses 

On 10 September, during Russia’s air raid on Ukraine’s western regions, 19 Russian decoy drones entered Polish airspace. German press claimed that at least five of them were en route to the Rzeszów airbase in southeastern Poland, which is used to supply Ukraine.⁷ NATO jets shot down four of the drones, and an interceptor missile damaged a house in a Polish border area. Though accidental incursions of both Russian and Ukrainian projectiles on NATO territory have regularly occurred since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 — ACLED records at least 70 such instances on the alliance’s eastern flank from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea — the number of Russian drones veering off course raised suspicion of a provocation, especially in light of the Russia-Belarus Zapad drills close to allied borders. Additionally, on 13 September, a Russian attack drone loitered in Romania’s airspace for about an hour before returning to Ukraine. 

Tensions in the Baltic Sea area flared further on 19 September when three Russian fighter jets that switched off their transponders and deviated from the narrow corridor over the Gulf of Finland toward Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave were intercepted and remained in Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes. On the same day, two Russian fighter jets violated a Polish exclusive economic zone in the area of the Petrobaltic oil and gas rig in the Baltic Sea. Later in the same week, Germany claimed a hostile Russian military plane overflew its warship in the Baltic Sea.

In late September, multiple unidentified drones were spotted near airports, military bases, and infrastructure facilities in Nordic and Baltic Sea countries, leading to airport closures and travel disruptions. At least a dozen sightings occurred in Denmark. Aalborg Airport was targeted repeatedly, and the main airport near Copenhagen was targeted once (see map below). Suspicious drone activity was also reported in Norway and in Germany’s Schleswig-Holstein, which is adjacent to Denmark. ACLED last records a spike in unauthorized drone overflights of civilian and military infrastructure, in which Russia’s involvement was suspected, in northern Europe in the last quarter of 2024 and early 2025. As was the case in September, it then coincided with a spike in Ukrainian targeting of Russian oil infrastructure. 

Russia denied targeting NATO or violating allied airspace, as well as involvement in the increased drone activity in the region. Its officials did, however, threaten violent response should European countries proceed with plans to deploy troops to Ukraine to uphold a ceasefire or shoot down Russian jets and drones.⁸ They also privately linked their incursions into NATO territory to Ukrainian long-range targeting of Russia-occupied Crimea.⁹

France: Anti-austerity activists mobilize after government ouster

On 8 September, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) and the far-right National Rally (RN) factions in the National Assembly defenestrated François Bayrou’s government — the third French government to fall in a little over a year. Bayrou’s announcement of austerity measures on 15 July precipitated his downfall.¹⁰ President Emmanuel Macron appointed his confidant Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu as the next prime minister. 

The nomination coincided with a series of strikes and demonstrations on 10 September. Organized by Bloquons tout (Let's block everything), a grassroots group that emerged online over the previous months, they demanded action against inequality and the appointment of a left-wing candidate as prime minister.¹¹ ACLED records hundreds of thousands of people joining over 400 rallies across mainland France around 10 September. Police intervened with tear gas in several instances and detained 540 demonstrators, possibly to prevent the level of disruption seen during the yellow vest wave of protests in 2018. Trade unions joined the fray on 18 September and held over 220 strikes across France, which passed largely peacefully. In September, the overall number of demonstrations in France exceeded 1,000 events; the anti-austerity demonstrations contributed about 60% of the total count. This is the largest spike in demonstration activity in France since January 2024, when farmers took to the streets across Europe.

Although Lecornu has yet to name his government, his commitment to pursuing Bayrou’s economic policies and his refusal to retract the controversial pension reform,¹² one of the left’s main demands, could bring down his government, too, and will likely undermine public support for his policies, leading to further unrest.

Russia-Ukraine: Russian forces enter Kupiansk and pound Kyiv, while Ukraine strikes back 

While Ukrainian forces mounted counter-attacks in areas around and between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, as well as in border areas of the Sumy region, Russian forces probed the 1,200-kilometer frontline for weak spots. Russian troops infiltrated Kupiansk on the Oskil river in the Kharkiv region — a long-time Ukrainian stronghold — by smuggling personnel and supplies via a 13-kilometer-long, 1.4-meter-wide non-functioning gas pipeline on the riverbed.¹³ This is reminiscent of tactics used in the capture of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region in February 2024 and the ejection of Ukrainian forces from Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region in March 2025. Additionally, fighting spread deeper into the Dnipropetrovsk region at the junction with the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions, triggering the dismissal of commanders of two Ukrainian army corps defending the area. Banking on short-staffed Ukrainian forces, Russia is also pushing through frontline sections that had been considered stable since late 2022. In September, it claimed the Serebryansky forest at the junction of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and reached the outskirts of the towns of Siversk and Yampil in the latter, both important transit hubs for the Ukrainian military east of Slovyansk.

At the same time, the air war between Russia and Ukraine escalated further, both in reach and ferocity. For the first time, a Ukrainian drone reached Russia’s far-flung Perm Krai about 1,500 kilometers from the border. In addition to exacerbating fuel shortages in Russia due to persistent strikes on oil processing facilities, Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on energy infrastructure in the Belgorod region on 28 September knocked out electricity and water supply for about half a million residents. The strikes may have been in retaliation for Russia’s 12-hour-long bombardment of Kyiv and the surrounding eponymous region on the same day. A Russian ballistic missile hit the seat of Ukraine’s government on 7 September, though it did not explode. 

The Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine also claimed responsibility for explosions at parking lots near military units in Khabarovsk and Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East on 8 and 16 September, respectively, probably resulting in multiple military casualties. Ukrainian officials previously accused personnel serving in those units of committing war crimes in Ukraine. Ukrainian operatives also blew up a senior Russian National Guard officer alongside his aide and driver in Stavropol Krai.¹⁴ For more information on targeted killings in both Russia and Ukraine, see ACLED’s latest report: Personal payback: Assassinations escalate in Ukraine and Russia’s shadow war.

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor. 

Serbia: Police respond to protests with more force 

September in Serbia began with over 20 marches across the country to mark 10 months since the deadly roof collapse at a train station in Novi Sad that killed 16 people. Initially led by students, the demonstrators demanded that those responsible be held accountable and snap parliamentary elections be held. In Novi Sad, police charged at a group of protesters after the march on 1 September using pyrotechnics, batons, and tear gas.

​Later that week, on 5 September, police again dispersed the protesting crowd using force, including what analysis later showed was CN gas, a particularly potent tear gas.¹⁵ At the rector’s behest, police also evicted students from the rectorate building of the University of Novi Sad, which they had occupied since last year. Several women who were detained at the protest later claimed they were strip-searched¹⁶ at the police station, something male detainees did not report having to do.

​President Aleksandar Vučić did not respond to calls for a snap election but instead rallied his supporters. ACLED records over 100 ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) rallies, which the SNS claimed were held against the blockades of traffic and frequent protests. Vučić also accused the protest movement of being funded from “abroad”¹⁷ and insulted European parliamentarians from the European Greens faction who had been present at the 8 September rally.¹⁸ Although the number of events in September was lower than in August, rallies held by pro- and anti-government groups took place during the last weekend of the month, with clashes occurring in some instances.

United Kingdom: Anti-migration demonstrations increase in scale

On 13 September, more than 110,000 people carrying British and English flags joined a Unite the Kingdom anti-immigration march in London at the call of British anti-Islam campaigner and far-right activist Tommy Robinson. British and European far-right politicians also joined, and US billionaire Elon Musk addressed the crowd via a video link.¹⁹ About 5,000 people staged a counter-protest nearby at the call of the Stand Up to Racism movement. The events turned violent when far-right rioters punched police officers and hurled bottles, flares, and other projectiles at them. Clashes led to 25 arrests and 26 injured police members.²⁰

Despite the large-scale demonstration in London, ACLED records a decrease in the overall number of anti-migration demonstrations in the UK in September after the August peak, down from 74 to 28. However, opposition to immigration continued to fuel street activism elsewhere in the country. On 18 September, for example, around 200 people attended simultaneous demonstrations in Northern Ireland that the Official Protestant Coalition organized on social media under the banner of Operation Shutdown.²¹ Organizers called on participants to block roads in a number of locations to “take our country back,” while drawing attention to the consequences of “mass migration.”²² With a lower-than-expected turnout, events unfolded peacefully, only leading to some minor traffic disruption in Belfast, Newtownabbey, and Carrickfergus.

Concerns over immigration are increasingly driving people to the streets in several other European countries. In September, ACLED also records anti-immigration demonstrations in the Netherlands, France, Germany, Italy, Greece, Poland, Denmark, and Sweden. On 20 September, 30 people were arrested and two police officers were injured in The Hague after clashes occurred between anti-immigrant demonstrators and police. Clashes between anti-immigrant demonstrators and police occurred on at least two other occasions in the Netherlands in September.