Europe and Central Asia Overview: September 2025

Armenia-Azerbaijan: The US brokers an agreement on the Zangezur corridor

On 8 August, in the presence of United States President Donald Trump at the White House, Armenia and Azerbaijan’s leaders, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, signed a joint declaration¹ affirming both countries’ territorial integrity and inadmissibility of recourse to force to acquire territory. The two countries’ foreign ministers initialed the draft peace agreement² and appealed to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to dissolve the Minsk Group³ that has mediated the conflict over the now defunct Artsakh⁴ since the early 1990s. Crucially, Armenia agreed to the US’ development of the route linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia’s Syunik region. The route — dubbed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) and referred to as the Zangezur corridor in Azerbaijan — was one of the two main sticking points for normalizing relations. The second point — the outstanding Azerbaijani demand that Armenia amend its constitution to exclude references to Artsakh — may be put to a referendum, possibly in 2026 when Armenia will also hold general elections.⁵ 

ACLED records only one instance of a ceasefire violation on 4 August when Azerbaijani troops shot at an excavator in the Syunik region, after a lull in gunfire along the two countries’ borders in July. While keeping border skirmishes in check may be indicative of both sides’ progress toward definitive peace, perceived concessions to Azerbaijan may fuel tensions in Armenia, as exemplified by the wave of anti-government demonstrations in the wake of the delimitation of a section of the border with Azerbaijan in 2024.    

Russia-Ukraine: Strikes on energy infrastructure intensify

In August, ACLED records a notable increase in both Russia and Ukraine targeting each other’s energy infrastructure. Russia focused on facilities transporting natural gas in Ukraine, and Ukraine attempted to disrupt Russia’s fuel production and the flow of its crude oil to Europe.  

Alongside the indiscriminate targeting of Ukraine’s populated areas that frequently results in damage to power and other critical infrastructure, Russian forces resumed striking important energy assets across the country. On 6 August, several Russian drones hit a natural gas transportation and compression station in the Odesa region on the border with Romania, amid reports of Ukraine running low on natural gas reserves ahead of the cold season.⁶ Russian forces repeatedly targeted energy infrastructure in the region throughout the month, including by striking oil holding assets owned by an Azerbaijani state company and bombarding the town and seaport of Chornomorsk near Odesa on 30 August. Major strikes in the central Poltava region on 19, 26, and 27 August damaged the Kremenchuk oil refinery — the largest in Ukraine — and gas transport infrastructure. Russian strikes also targeted energy and, in particular, gas infrastructure in at least five other regions of Ukraine throughout the month.  

Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its targeting of Russia’s oil infrastructure to inflict fuel shortages⁷ and disrupt the flow of oil exports funding its war against Ukraine. ACLED records an all-time monthly high of over 25 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, holding facilities, and pipelines, including the repeated targeting of assets in the Bryansk, Krasnodar, Rostov, Samara, and Volgograd regions. The strikes halted production at refineries in the Ryazan and Saratov regions⁸ and may have reduced overall refining capacity by 17%.⁹ 

Furthermore, Ukrainian drones struck Druzhba oil pipeline infrastructure in the Tambov and Bryansk regions on three occasions, leading to the intermittent disruption of the flow of Russian crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia and exacerbating Ukraine’s tense relations with the former.¹⁰ In addition to direct strikes, Ukraine frequently struck railways — a popular means of transport in the southern oil and fuel-producing regions.     

For more information, see the ACLED Ukraine Conflict Monitor. 

Serbia: Violence escalates as demonstrations enter 10th month

Demonstrations that began following a deadly canopy collapse in Novi Sad last November have now continued for 10 months, during which time protesters have progressed from demanding accountability to now calling for snap parliamentary elections. While activity levels during July were sustained, largely peaceful, but higher than normal for the summer period, the protests escalated on 10 August when supporters of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) attacked demonstrators using fireworks, pyrotechnics, glass bottles, and stones in Backa Palanka. This violence triggered a nationwide response from opposition activists, who gathered outside SNS offices across the country. Some incidents involved the vandalism of party premises and clashes with SNS supporters. The SNS also mobilized its supporters, who held over 80 anti-blockade rallies across the country and demanded the reopening of higher educational institutions, which students have blocked as an act of protest since November.¹¹ Police interventions during this period appeared to disproportionately target opposition demonstrators, while tolerating violence committed by SNS supporters.

Protest organizers and activists were also victims of targeted attacks away from demonstration sites. These incidents, carried out primarily by unidentified perpetrators, have sometimes involved physical attacks and raids on activists' businesses. ACLED records more than 60 such attacks since the demonstrations began 10 months ago. The government has mostly ignored these incidents or downplayed them, like in the case of a knife attack on a university faculty dean in March.¹² 

Throughout the summer, student groups and self-organized citizens’ assemblies have maintained their demands for immediate parliamentary elections. While the government had previously rejected calls for early elections, President Aleksandar Vučić recently announced that parliamentary elections will be held “before the legal deadline” of 2027,¹³ though he provided no specific timeline.

United Kingdom: Demonstrations escalate amid a legal battle over hotels housing asylum seekers

Grievances over immigration and the housing of asylum seekers in hotels continued to fuel demonstration activity across the United Kingdom in August. This comes after an asylum seeker hosted at the Bell Hotel in the Essex town of Epping was accused of sexually assaulting two teenagers in mid-July.¹⁴ ACLED records at least 55 anti-migration demonstration events throughout August, up 175% from July. Often occurring in front of hotels housing refugees, these demonstrations have been mostly peaceful and have been promoted on social media under slogans such as “Protect Our Community,” “Safety of Women and Children Before Foreigners,” and “All Patriots Welcome.”¹⁵ Events turned violent on at least four occasions, when clashes broke out between anti-migration demonstrators and police. The most serious incidents occurred in Liverpool on 23 August and Cheshunt on 30 August.¹⁶ In most cases, anti-migration gatherings were met by anti-racist counter-demonstrations in support of refugees. 

In recent years, both far-right groups and organizations supporting refugees have criticized the housing of asylum seekers in hotels — a relic of the COVID-19 pandemic period. The current Labour government has promised to stop using hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.¹⁷ 

The case of the Bell Hotel is currently in the middle of a precedent-setting legal action, further fuelling protest activity, with the local Epping Forest District Council seeking to remove asylum seekers from the hotel. Having initially obtained an injunction from the High Court, which would have forced asylum seekers to leave the building by 12 September, a Court of Appeal ruled in favor of the government's appeal against that decision, overturning the ruling.¹⁸ The day after this ruling, masked men attempted to enter a hotel housing asylum seekers by force, resulting in five arrests and two injured police officers. A decision on the Bell Hotel case from a higher instance court is expected in October.