Kenya Situation Update: April 2023 | Rise in Disorder as Opposition Stages Mass Demonstrations

Kenya at a Glance: 25 March-21 April 2023

VITAL TRENDS

• ACLED records over 80 political violence events resulting in more than 50 reported fatalities from 25 March to 21 April 2023. Nairobi county had the highest number of political violence events, mainly due to mob violence.
• Nairobi county had the highest number of fatalities resulting from political violence as well, with 10 recorded during the reporting period. West Pokot and Samburu counties followed, with eight reported fatalities each. Nearly 40% of all fatalities resulted from violence involving pastoralist militias.
• The most common event type was riots, with over 90 events, followed by protests, with over 50 events. The opposition Azimio la Umoja (Resolution for Unity) One Kenya Coalition Party organized demonstrations in over 40 locations around the country.

Rise in Disorder as Opposition Stages Mass Demonstrations 

Kenya has recently experienced a spate of opposition-led mass demonstrations, leading to a peak in disorder in the country. Last year, after a disputed election and amid allegations of vote rigging, Kenya’s former Deputy President William Ruto from Kenya Kwanza (Kenya First) Alliance was elected president, defeating opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga of Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party.¹ In February 2023, Odinga rallied his supporters and set a “deadline” for the government to address issues related to the elections and high cost of living, among other grievances, within 14 days. The coalition also announced the creation of a youth resistance wing, the Movement for Defense of Democracy.² The Kenya Kwanza allies dismissed both as destabilizing attempts by Odinga.³ With demands unmet, the coalition officially launched the protest movement on 9 March, calling for the first nationwide protest on 20 March.⁴ Demonstrations over the following weeks left several people dead and paralyzed businesses in major towns.⁵ After Ruto appealed for negotiations, on 2 April, Odinga suspended demonstrations, but despite the ongoing talks, the opposition later renewed calls for a new round of protests from 2 May.⁶ This report analyzes the disorder trends related to the opposition-led anti-government unrest during the reporting period. It specifically discusses the opposition’s grievances, demands, and activities both in the lead-up to and during the period of unrest.

Rise in Disorder and Opposition’s Grievances and Demands

March witnessed a rise in disorder events in Kenya due to the mass demonstrations called by the opposition. During the reporting period, from 25 March to 21 April, ACLED records demonstrations in almost 80 locations in 28 counties across the country. State intervention in demonstrations increased by over 30% compared to the previous four weeks after opposition-led protests were declared illegal on 19 March.⁷ Over half of the demonstrations during the reporting period were organized by the Azimio Coalition. About half of the recorded demonstration events were violent demonstrations (see graph below), with reports of rioters setting fire to a mosque, church, and police vehicle while also looting and damaging businesses and other property.⁸

The immediate trigger of the unrest was the high cost of living. In February, the Ruto government stated that it would not reinstate subsidies on essential commodities,⁹ and it plans to increase tax collection by nearly 20% in the new fiscal year.¹⁰ Subsequently, Odinga accused the government of “massive looting of the public resources and heartless withdrawal of subsidies to food, fuel and education.”¹¹ The prominent Kenyan Christian organization, the National Council of Churches of Kenya, also supported the move.¹² Beyond the cost of living, Odinga, who had claimed fraud during the last presidential election, demanded an audit of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) servers to verify the election results.¹³ Meanwhile, Ruto has taken steps to unilaterally select the IEBC commissioners – a move Odinga claims Ruto has taken without consultations with other interested parties and stakeholders.¹⁴

The unrest was a culmination of months-long preparations in the form of rallies, dubbed ‘People’s Barazas’ – consultative forums used for criticizing the Kenya Kwanza government for failing to live up to its election promises.¹⁵ The forums intended to build momentum ahead of the demonstrations by calling on all Kenyans to join the movement.¹⁶ Apart from Odinga from the Orange Democratic Movement, leaders of other parties, members of the parliament, and county governors part of the Azimio Coalition also attended the rallies.¹⁷ The rallies were held not only in counties where the coalition is viewed to enjoy massive political support, but also in the strongholds of Kenya Kwanza Alliance, such as Nyandarua and Nakuru.¹⁸

Although the rallies were largely peaceful, violence was reported in some locations. For instance, suspected Azimio supporters attacked journalists from TV47 media house and shattered their vehicle’s windows during a rally at the Jacaranda grounds in Embakasi, Nairobi, on 29 January. On 17 March, unknown people stormed the venue of a planned Azimio rally in Githurai, located at the border of Nairobi and Kiambu counties, vandalizing the dais. With the lapse of the 14-day ultimatum, on 9 March, the coalition launched a campaign of defiance consisting of picketing, strikes, and peaceful protests.¹⁹ The protests started the following day in the western region, in Vihiga and Kisumu counties.

Unrest Escalates and Expands

The demonstrations gained momentum following Odinga’s call to action, with Azimio supporters in other areas taking to the streets. While the majority of demonstrations were peaceful between 10 to 19 March, violence escalated on 20 March, a day after the National Police Service declared these protests illegal.²⁰ To encourage Azimio supporters to participate in the planned protests, Odinga told supporters they had “a date with destiny” on 20 March, and he symbolically declared it a ‘public holiday.’²¹ Attending a demonstration himself in Nairobi, he called for weekly nationwide protests after police blocked him from entering Serena Hotel where he was scheduled for a news conference.²² That day, a Maseno University student was shot and killed by police in Kisumu county, in what was the first reported fatality due to the unrest. As a response, the coalition announced a change in schedule, doubling the protests to twice a week, on Mondays and Thursdays. The coalition also called for an economic boycott by urging its supporters to boycott products and services from certain companies allegedly linked to the Kenya Kwanza administration.²³

From 10 March to 21 April, ACLED records pro-Azimio anti-government demonstrations in over 55 locations in the country. Nearly half of these were violent demonstration events, with 70% occurring in Nairobi and Kisumu counties – both Azimio strongholds (see map below). Both counties also saw the highest rate of state intervention in demonstrations compared with other counties. At least seven fatalities were reported during the unrest in these two counties, including the aforementioned student and a police officer who was hit by a police car during the demonstrations.

Information on election results per county is sourced from Citizen Digital – Kenya Elections 2022.

During the unrest, police in riot gear engaged the demonstrators in clashes, and used tear gas, water cannons, and at times live bullets to disperse the groups attending the demonstrations. Police forces also arrested hundreds of Azimio supporters, including several Azimio leaders and lawmakers.²⁴ Emphasizing Azimio’s role in instigating the disorder, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called for the international indictment of Odinga for causing the unrest.²⁵ On the other hand, in a letter recently submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor, Azimio Coalition requests a probe into the political situation in the country. The coalition alleges the formation of a special police squad in plain clothes responsible for the killing and maiming of its supporters during the demonstrations.²⁶

Moreover, ACLED records violent events involving alleged pro-government militias, amid tensions and allegations that former President Uhuru Kenyatta was responsible for funding the demonstrations.²⁷ On 27 March, an unidentified armed group stormed Kenyatta’s family farm in Ruiru, Kiambu county, and stole thousands of cattle before setting the farm ablaze. There was no report of police intervention.²⁸ A media report claims that the militia was mobilized in advance by two members of the parliament and a former governor, among others.²⁹ On the same day, another group destroyed property and smashed windows of the building at a company linked to Odinga in Nairobi Industrial Area.

There were also occasional reports of property destruction by the demonstrators. For instance, in Kisumu, on 30 March, Azimio supporters stormed a mortuary and vandalized and stole items worth millions of shillings after mortuary attendants did not let them see the body of a person allegedly shot by police during the unrest. The same day, in the neighboring Siaya county, demonstrators outnumbered the police and set Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party office ablaze before carting away valuables. Additionally, from 27 to 30 March, ACLED records several incidents of violence against journalists by the rioters and the police, sparking public outrage.³⁰

On 2 April, the Azimio leader called off mass protests, in what appeared to be a truce with the government.³¹ Azimio made the announcement moments after President Ruto’s state of the nation live address, where he called for a peaceful resolution of the Azimio grievances, especially on the reconstitution of the IEBC.³² Pressure from the African Union and western states likely convinced the opposition and the government to call for a truce.³³ Already, both camps have selected their seven representatives to the bipartisan committee ahead of the dialogue.³⁴ The committee has also selected two representatives, one from each camp, to serve as co-chairs of the dialogue.³⁵ Nonetheless, it is not yet clear how far the bipartisan teams will go in addressing all the grievances raised by the opposition. Azimio leaders have already kicked off new rallies as a precursor to another set of planned mass protests from 2 May, should the government back out from the dialogue.³⁶ Moreover, the opposition has claimed sabotage after the government poached some Azimio members to be its representative in the bipartisan committee.³⁷ While it is unlikely that the ICC will open investigations into the Kenya situation as demanded by the Azimio Coalition, both the government and Azimio’s measures show distrust and might undermine the bi-partisan dialogue and the peace and stability of the country at large.