Middle East Overview: July 2024

Regional: Ten months of war push regional tensions to an all-time high

Tensions involving the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance,’ which has waged attacks on Israel and the United States in the wake of Israel’s war in Gaza, reached a fever pitch in July.

A drone attack by Yemen’s Houthis on Tel Aviv on 19 July resulted in Israeli casualties for the first time, leaving one civilian dead and injuring at least eight others. The drone used by the Houthis was an upgraded version of their Sammad drone series that they called the ‘Yafa,’ a term the Houthis use to refer to Tel Aviv.¹ Experts estimate that the drone flew for some 2,600 kilometers, a distance that had never been witnessed before from Houthi drones.² In retaliation, Israeli fighter jets conducted strikes on the port city of al-Hudayda on Yemen’s West Coast region a day later. The strikes resulted in nine reported fatalities and more than 80 injuries and sparked large fires that burned for days, as dozens of fuel storage tanks were struck in the city’s fuel storage station. These strikes were the first Israeli retaliation against the Houthis following almost 30 drone and missile attacks targeting Israeli territory since October 2023 (for more, see the Yemen Conflict Observatory’s Red Sea attacks interactive map).

Elsewhere, amid continued daily exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah across the Lebanese-Israeli border, a projectile fell on a football field in the majority-Druze, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on 27 July, killing 12 children and youths. This marked the deadliest attack in Israel or Israeli-annexed territories since Hamas’s 7 October attack. While Hezbollah denied responsibility, Israel has blamed the Shiite armed group for the attack.³ In retaliation, Israel killed Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in a precision strike in southern Beirut on 30 July.

A mere seven hours later, Hamas’s Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran in an attack widely attributed to Israel, after attending the inauguration of the newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. The assassination, which followed dozens of other targeted killings of commanders and senior figures of the axis of resistance since 7 October, marked the most serious escalation of hostilities at the regional level. A joint retaliation by Iran and its allies directly targeting Israel is expected in the near future. In all likelihood, Iran will keep its response proportionate and avoid targeting Israeli civilians in an attempt to avoid the all-out war it perceives Israel to be attempting to provoke.

Several exchanges of fire also occurred between United States forces and axis of resistance-affiliated groups in Syria and Iraq. On 30 July, US drones killed six Kataib Hizbullah fighters in Jurf al-Nasr in Babil governorate in Iraq, after drone and shelling strikes hit US forces based at Ain Assad Air Base in al-Anbar. In Syria, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and pro-Iran militias shelled the US military base in Koniko Gas Field in Dayr al-Zawr on four separate occasions, without causing any casualties. While Shiite militias started to target US positions after 7 October in support of Gaza, the attacks had largely ceased after US airstrikes in February.

Gaza: In the absence of a ceasefire, the high toll of fatalities continues to increase

In the Gaza Strip, the war between Israel and Hamas entered its tenth month with no agreement reached in ceasefire talks. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted a two-week ground operation in the Shujaiyya neighborhood of Gaza City in July, claiming to have killed more than 150 militants, including the deputy commander of the Shujaiyya battalion. Israeli troops also launched ground operations in the western parts of Gaza City, including the Tal al-Hawa and Remal neighborhoods, as well as east of Khan Yunis and the Bani Suheyla area, while clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants continued in Rafah.

Meanwhile, the IDF stepped up its airstrikes during July, with ACLED recording a nearly 20% increase compared to the month prior. On 13 July, Israeli forces launched an airstrike targeting the safe area in al-Mawasi in Khan Yunis, later announcing that they had killed Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah and Hamas military chief Muhammed Deif in the strike. At least 90 other Palestinians were reportedly killed and 300 injured in the attack, including journalists and civil defense workers. In total, over 1,500 Palestinians were reportedly killed during July, bringing the total number of Palestinian fatalities since 7 October to over 39,000 people.⁴ The ACLED Conflict Index’s 2024 mid-year update ranks Palestine as the deadliest conflict in the world and shows that 87% of the Palestinian population has been exposed to extreme violence.

Iraq: Turkey-PKK violence intensifies as Turkish forces advance into Iraq

In July, the Turkish army continued advancing into northern Iraq, deploying troops and armored vehicles to various new areas in Duhok and Erbil governorates.⁵ Turkish forces also established new bases, outposts, and checkpoints across both governorates and seized strategic hilltops, attempting to isolate Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) forces.⁶ These actions are part of Turkey’s broader plan to create a 30- to 40-kilometer (19- to 25-mile) “deep security corridor” along the borders with Iraq and Syria, the country’s defense minister has said.⁷ Turkish advancements were accompanied by a surge in violence between Turkish forces and PKK militants, with 590 events recorded in July compared to 436 events in June.

Oman: The Islamic State carries out its first-ever attack in the sultanate

On 15 July, three Islamic State (IS) militants stormed a Shiite mosque in the suburbs of Muscat, Oman’s capital, and opened fire on the worshippers, killing five and injuring 28, including rescuers and paramedics. The attack took place in a mosque frequented mostly by South Asian nationals who had gathered on the eve of Ashura, a day when Shiite Muslims commemorate the death of the third Shiite Imam, Husayn ibn Ali. Omani police forces responded to the attack and killed the three militants, in the first battle event recorded in Oman since ACLED’s coverage of the country began in 2016.

The attack came as a surprise in this otherwise peaceful and stable sultanate. Although the three IS militants were all Omani nationals, the group had never officially announced an ‘Oman Province’ as part of its organization. It remains unclear whether the militants acted independently or whether the IS province in neighboring Yemen was involved in the attack. This attack followed other high-profile IS attacks in Iran in January 2024 and in Russia in March 2024, as the group seems to be trying to remain relevant by opening new fronts beyond its original foothold in Iraq and Syria.

Syria: Talks of a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement lead to unrest in northern Syria

Syria witnessed an intensification of demonstrations in July, sparked by objections to a potential restoration of relations between Turkey and Syria. The largest of these demonstrations took place in rebel-controlled areas in northern Syria, with ACLED recording 55 demonstrations in 23 towns across Aleppo and Idlib provinces. The demonstrations were in response to several developments, including riots targeting Syrian refugees in Turkey,⁸ the opening of a new crossing connecting rebel-controlled and regime-controlled areas in Abu Zandin,⁹ and the growing prospects of a rapprochement between Turkey and Syria.¹⁰ Amid the demonstrations, Aleppo province witnessed the highest levels of violence. For example, in Afrin city, demonstrations escalated into armed clashes between opposition rebels and Turkish soldiers that killed at least five opposition rebels and civilians. Further, demonstrators destroyed Turkish goods trucks, stormed Bab al-Salameh and Jarablus crossings, and attempted to storm several Turkish military bases in the province, while at least one civilian was killed as a result of Turkish fire at Jarablus crossing. More than 50 civilians and opposition rebels were detained following their participation in the demonstrations.