Middle East Overview: May 2024

Iraq: The Islamic State ramps up attacks as Iraqi government seeks withdrawal of US forces

Islamic State (IS) militants engaged in several instances of fatal violence, in what constitutes a major escalation of IS activity in Iraq since June 2023. Some areas, such as the Mutaibijah area, witnessed their first IS activities in over a year. Renewed IS activities coincided with the arrest of several prominent IS militants, including Socrates Khalil, a close confidant of late IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed in 2019. These developments come as Iraq seeks an end to the US military’s presence in the country as part of the Global Coalition Against Daesh, which Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has declared no longer necessary.¹ A continued increase in IS activities is likely, however, to derail US-Iraq withdrawal talks.

Lebanon: Hezbollah-Israel cross-border clashes intensify

As the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel entered its eighth month, and with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intensifying its operation in Rafah, Hezbollah stepped up its attack against Israel, killing at least three Israeli soldiers. On 15 May, the Shiite armed group launched two drones targeting an IDF base about 35 kilometers from Israel’s northern border, the deepest attack inside Israel since 7 October. Hezbollah also launched its first successful missile airstrike on 16 May from within Israeli airspace by using a drone that fired two missiles, injuring three Israeli soldiers, one of them seriously.² On the other side, Israel continued its attack on southern Lebanon, targeting key Hezbollah commanders and members of various military units. Over 30 Hezbollah fighters were killed in Israeli attacks in May.

Palestine: Israel launches Rafah offensive in Gaza

On 6 May, Israel ordered the evacuation of Palestinian civilians from eastern Rafah as it launched an intense air campaign targeting the eastern section of the southernmost city in Gaza, where 1.5 million Palestinians were believed to be sheltering.³ The orders for evacuation came as Hamas announced its acceptance of an Egypt-Qatar-brokered ceasefire agreement, which Israel had deemed “far from Israel’s necessary demands.”⁴ As the IDF intensified its air campaign on Rafah, it also seized control of the Gaza side of the Rafah Border Crossing, thereby gaining full control over the entry and exit of people and goods for the first time since 2005.⁵ The total number of political violence events in Rafah more than doubled in May compared to the previous month. About 500 people were killed in Rafah in May, including at least 45 Palestinians, many of whom were women and children, in an airstrike that hit a refugee camp for displaced Palestinians on 26 May. The IDF also intensified its military operations in the northern Gaza Strip in early May, targeting Jabaliya with tanks and heavy airstrikes.⁶ Jabaliya, which has the largest refugee camp in Gaza, has become a focal point for IDF efforts to keep Hamas from reestablishing military bases in the area. ACLED records a sharp increase in armed clashes between Palestinian armed groups and the IDF in Jabaliya in May.

For more information, see the ACLED Israel & Palestine focus page.

Syria: Protests against HTS continue in rebel-held areas amid crackdown on protesters

Protests against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continued for a third consecutive month. The protests, triggered by the detention and execution of hundreds of rebel fighters and civilians, are calling for the removal of HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the dismantling of the group’s security apparatus, and the release of detainees. After two months of relatively peaceful protests, HTS launched a crackdown on demonstrators, forcefully dispersing several protests, detaining activists, and clashing with demonstrators, leading to several injuries. HTS security forces have also blocked roads, set up checkpoints, and deployed hundreds of fighters to prevent civilians from villages from joining the protests in major cities such as Idleb city. This escalation presents a significant challenge to HTS’s authority. Further attacks on demonstrations will not only exacerbate social tensions but also intensify the ongoing conflict between the group’s military and security wings, which have been temporarily contained.⁷

Yemen: Houthi forces announce the expansion of maritime attacks to the Mediterranean Sea

On 3 May, the Houthis announced a fourth phase of escalatory measures in response to the Israeli offensive in the Gaza Strip.⁸ After expanding their maritime attacks to the Indian Ocean in April, Houthi forces have now vowed to conduct attacks against commercial ships in the Mediterranean Sea. The group also noted that if Israel launched an offensive in Rafah — which it did a few days later — they would not only target ships headed to Israeli ports but any ships with links to companies dealing with Israel. On 23 May, the Houthis targeted the Yannis cargo ship in the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, claiming that other ships from the company owning the Yannis — Eastern Mediterranean Maritime — had docked at Israeli ports earlier in the month. 

As the pool of Houthi targets at sea increased, so did the number of Houthi attack claims. In May, Houthi forces claimed to have targeted 16 commercial ships, the highest monthly number since the start of their attacks in December 2023. However, the rate of successful attacks also reached its lowest in May, with only two ships struck by Houthi missiles. This is largely due to a drastic increase in unsubstantiated claims: at least nine of the 16 Houthi claims of targeting commercial ships in May, including two in the Mediterranean Sea, have been denied or not been corroborated by other sources. Nonetheless, the surge in Houthi claims prompted a new wave of joint US-UK strikes on 30 May, which the Houthis say killed 16 and injured 42.⁹     

For more, see the Red Sea attacks interactive map as part of the Yemen Conflict Observatory.