Middle East Overview: September 2025

Gaza: Lull in strikes precedes Gaza City escalation

In the Gaza Strip, Israeli activity in August dropped by about 15% compared to the previous month. Airstrikes fell to their lowest monthly level since the resumption of the war on 18 March, and overall reported fatalities declined by about 40%. This followed the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) implementation of 10-hour daily pauses in fighting from 27 July in al-Mawasi, Dayr al-Balah, and Gaza City — areas not under Israeli control — to allow a greater flow of aid after international uproar over the humanitarian crisis.

Nevertheless, the IDF conducted more than 700 strikes across the enclave, including dozens of strikes in the designated zones during pause hours. Israeli forces also continued razing and clearing operations, especially in Gaza City, where more than half of all controlled building demolitions during the month took place as the IDF prepared to expand military control of the area. Daily violence around aid distribution sites and routes also persisted. ACLED records nearly 100 incidents of IDF violence related to aid distribution, both around Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) sites and in other areas, including near the Zikim crossing in the north, resulting in around 500 fatalities.

August was a particularly deadly month for Palestinian journalists, with at least 13 killed, 10 of them in the line of duty. Two incidents, each resulting in five fatalities, rank among the deadliest attacks on journalists in Gaza since the war began. Israel acknowledged one of these, on 10 August, as a targeted strike, accusing one of the victims — a prominent Al Jazeera reporter — of being affiliated with Hamas. The second major incident occurred on 22 August, when Israeli strikes hit Khan Yunis’ Nasser Hospital in successive rounds, killing more than 20 people, including five journalists. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the attack as a “tragic mishap,”¹ while the military claimed it had targeted what it believed was a Hamas surveillance camera.² Reporters, however, regularly base themselves at the hospital, and the second strike — caught on camera — hit a stairwell where medical staff and journalists were clearly visible.³ 

Together, these incidents underscore both Israel’s pattern of disproportionate attacks on hospitals and other critical infrastructure, and the risks faced by Palestinian journalists in a conflict where Israel restricts access for international media. Since 7 October 2023, ACLED has recorded around 350 incidents of strikes that killed over 400 journalists and media workers worldwide. More than half of these incidents — and more than 60% of resulting fatalities — occurred in Gaza, making it the world’s single deadliest environment for journalists.

On 29 August, the IDF announced a halt to the daily humanitarian pause and declared Gaza City a “dangerous combat zone,”⁴ precipitating an intensification of the campaign in the area, especially in the al-Zeytun neighborhood, where heavy clashes between Hamas militants and the IDF injured seven soldiers. As the IDF continues to mobilize for a full-scale offensive in Gaza City in the coming weeks, further escalation is expected unless Hamas agrees to Netanyahu’s maximalist demands for ending the war, including the group’s surrender and disarmament.

Iraq: Sulaymaniyah raid on Kurdish opposition leader signals crackdown ahead of elections

On 22 August, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)-run Asayish forces launched an overnight raid on the Lalazar Hotel in Sulaymaniyah, Kurdistan, to arrest Kurdish opposition leader Lahur Sheikh Jangi, a former PUK co-chair and head of the Kurdistan People’s Front Party (PFP). Kurdish security forces sealed city entrances and exchanged fire with armed loyalists for several hours before detaining Sheikh Jangi and several associates under counterterrorism charges. At least four people were killed — including three Asayish security personnel — and 15 others were wounded. Several reports estimate that around 20 supporters were killed and up to 400 others arrested.⁵ PUK security forces later alleged that Sheikh Jangi was orchestrating an assassination plot against PUK party leader Bafel Talabani, releasing videotaped confessions by detained supporters. Sheikh Jangi’s camp, meanwhile, accuses the authorities of using security and judicial bodies to neutralize rivals.⁶

The raid marks the most serious intra-Kurdish confrontation since 2003 and reflects a broader pre-election consolidation in the PUK stronghold. It followed the 12 August detention of New Generation Movement leader Shaswar Abdulwahid on financial charges, making Sheikh Jangi the second opposition figure arrested in Sulaymaniyah within two weeks. The crackdown comes as disputes between Baghdad and Erbil over public sector salaries and control of oil revenues intensify. These disputes are sharpening political rivalries in the Kurdistan region — with parties aligning along different sides of the salary and oil debate — and raising the risk that these divisions will spill over into militarization and violent clashes between factions. These developments highlight the growing fragmentation within Kurdish politics — with the PUK seeking to consolidate its hold in Sulaymaniyah while the KDP maintains its dominance in Erbil and Duhok — sharpening rivalries and reshaping alliances ahead of the November elections. 

Israel: Mounting dissent fails to shift war policy

Amid the decision by Israel’s political leadership — despite opposition from the IDF’s chief of staff — to escalate the war in Gaza, demonstrations in Israel surged to their highest level in August since the start of the war on 7 October 2023. ACLED records more than 300 protests across the country, around double the figure from the preceding month. Protests intensified after Hamas released videos of emaciated Israeli hostages in early August, and peaked further following the government’s decision to take over Gaza City, which families of hostages fear will endanger their loved ones.⁷

Two nationwide protest days were called on 17 and 26 August. On 17 August, 2.5 million Israelis⁸ took part in events across nearly 90 localities, with many businesses closing or allowing employees to stay home. During the month, two-thirds of protests — over 200 events — focused on demands for a ceasefire that would secure a hostage release, while nearly 70 demonstrations specifically called for Netanyahu’s resignation, accusing him of prioritizing political survival over the hostages’ return.⁹ Polling in August reflected this discontent: 65% of Israelis said the decision to escalate the war would not bring the hostages closer to release.¹⁰

In parallel, more than 50 demonstrations — led mainly by Arab citizens but also joined by Jewish activists and peace organizations such as Peace Now and Breaking the Silence — condemned Israeli actions in Gaza, including what they described as a “starvation” policy. At least 18 protests were also staged by ultra-Orthodox groups after the IDF launched arrest operations targeting yeshiva students who evade conscription. A high court ruling against blanket exemptions has intensified tensions, with ultra-Orthodox leaders declaring a “determined struggle” against enforcement.¹¹ Around 80,000 ultra-Orthodox men are believed to be eligible for service, while the IDF says it urgently needs 12,000 recruits to ease the strain on forces amid the ongoing war.¹²

Despite mounting public dissent from diverse groups in Israel with differing demands, the prime minister appears, for now, determined to continue the war in Gaza.

Lebanon: Violence declines amid disarmament negotiations 

Political violence in Lebanon declined to one of the lowest levels since the November 2024 ceasefire, coinciding with negotiations on the disarmament of Hezbollah and Palestinian armed groups. Israeli actions resulted in at least 21 reported fatalities in August, including eight Hezbollah members, a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) leader, and two members of the Lebanese Sunni militant group Jamaa Islamiya — marking the lowest monthly toll since January. Despite the overall decline, Israel escalated its tactics by employing surface-to-surface missiles for the first time since the ceasefire. The use of more advanced strikes underscores Israel’s intent to maintain military pressure on Hezbollah and allied factions during disarmament talks. 

In early August, the Lebanese government tasked the army with preparing a disarmament plan for Hezbollah by the end of the month, aiming to meet the year-end deadline set by the United States and France to consolidate a state monopoly over arms. Hezbollah has, however, rejected all disarmament proposals, framing them as serving Israel’s interests and demanding the withdrawal of Israeli forces from five Lebanese border hills and cessation of strikes before any discussion.¹³ In a defusal operation in southern Lebanon, six Lebanese Army soldiers were killed when seized Hezbollah explosive weapons detonated on-site. Separately, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) — coordinating with the Lebanese army — raided at least six Hezbollah tunnels and seized weapons. UNIFIL’s mandate was extended by the UN Security Council until December 2026, marking a final renewal before a planned drawdown and reflecting continued international support for stabilizing the border.¹⁴

In parallel, Lebanese authorities initiated the first phase of a broader disarmament effort within Palestinian refugee camps. On 21 August, Fatah-affiliated groups in Burj al-Barajneh and several other camps handed over a portion of their weapons as part of an agreement reached after the 21 May summit between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.¹⁵ While ACLED records nine weapon seizures from Fatah-linked groups, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad declined to participate, underscoring the limited scope of this initial phase. 

Syria: Israeli strikes shift focus amid fragile negotiations

Israeli warplanes conducted 10 strikes in Syria in August, down from 33 in July, amid ongoing Paris-based negotiations over a potential new border security arrangement to replace the 1974 disengagement accord.¹⁶ While Israel framed the July strikes as necessary to protect the local Druze community from escalating sectarian violence in al-Suwayda, August’s more limited campaign reflects a shift toward targeted security operations aimed at disrupting Syrian military capabilities. The deadliest incident occurred on 26 August, when Israeli warplanes struck a former Syrian military base in al-Kisweh, south of Damascus, killing at least five Syrian soldiers who were dismantling Israeli surveillance devices.¹⁷ A day later, additional strikes targeted the same site, followed by a landing operation that involved dozens of Israeli soldiers.

These strikes form part of Israel’s broader strategy to enforce the demilitarization of southern Syria and prevent the reactivation of Syrian and allied forces’ military capabilities near the Golan Heights. Since the fall of the Assad regime, ACLED records 277 Israeli strikes in Syria, which targeted arms depots, missile facilities, and air defense batteries. Israel has also deployed ground forces into the UN-patrolled buffer zone, establishing nine permanent outposts and expanding its presence beyond the buffer area into Daraa and Quneitra. In August alone, ACLED records over 80 Israeli incursions in these provinces, during which dozens of civilians were detained, including a notable deployment of 60 Israeli soldiers near Mount Hermon — a strategic surveillance position overlooking both the Syrian and Lebanese borders with Israel.

Meanwhile, tensions in al-Suwayda persisted despite a fragile ceasefire. August saw 33 armed clashes and shelling incidents involving Druze factions, regime forces, and Bedouin tribal militias, underscoring the province’s ongoing volatility and the layered dynamics shaping Israel’s evolving military posture.

Yemen: Israeli strike kills Houthi prime minister amid intensifying confrontation

A series of 10 Houthi attacks on Israeli territory in late August, representing a slight decline from July but marked by increased sophistication, precipitated a reintensification of hostilities between Israel and the Houthis. On 22 August, the Houthis launched a ballistic missile fitted with a submunition warhead — the first confirmed use of such technology — alongside two drones targeting Tel Aviv and Ashkelon. In response, Israel escalated its military campaign, targeting infrastructure, government buildings, and several civilian and military facilities.

The apex of Israel’s renewed air campaign in Yemen occurred on 28 August during Israel’s Operation Lucky Drop, when Israeli warplanes and warships launched over 30 airstrikes across Yemen. Most notably, the attack targeted a high-level meeting in Sanaa, killing Ahmed al-Rahawi, the Houthi prime minister, along with nine other ministers, the director of the prime minister's office, and the secretary of the council of ministers.¹⁸ This marked the first confirmed successful Israeli leadership strike since hostilities began in July 2024. For months, Israel has threatened to decapitate the Houthi leadership.¹⁹ Operation Lucky Drop officially aimed to eliminate two senior military figures — Defense Minister Muhammad Nasir al-Atifi and Chief of Staff Muhammad al-Ghamari²⁰ — yet both survived the strikes. As a result, the operation claimed the lives of Houthi affiliates rather than its intended high-value targets, while key decision makers remain alive and active. Overall, this may result in a temporary administrative vacuum in Sanaa, but it will also fuel Houthi paranoia over intelligence leaks and likely intensify their repressive attitude and military response.

The US- and Israel-led campaign forms part of a broader effort to neutralize Houthi operational command and secure Red Sea maritime routes, where Houthi attacks on Israel-linked vessels continue to disrupt trade. In response, Houthi leader Mahdi al-Mashat vowed broader retaliation, raising fears of intensified regional escalation in the weeks ahead. In addition to launching missiles and drones at Israel following the strikes, the Houthis retaliated on 31 August by targeting an Israeli-owned chemical tanker, the Scarlet Ray, with a ballistic missile off the western coast of Saudi Arabia.