Mozambique Conflict Monitor Update: 11 February 2026

Situation summary

ISM on the offensive in Catupa forest

ISM launched simultaneous attacks on two Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) positions in Catupa forest on 31 January. The positions attacked are known as Catupa and Namabo. The attack on Catupa continued into the following day. Islamic State (IS) media channels claimed that nine FADM soldiers were killed in the two attacks. According to local sources, fighting resumed in the area on 7 and 8 February, as FADM attempted to recover its positions. 

Namabo and Catupa lie to the east of the village of Quinto Congresso, which sits on the N380. Namabo is approximately 4 kilometers from the road, while the Catupa position lies approximately 12 km further east. According to a local source, FADM killed five insurgents during the attack at Catupa, a development reported two days later by TV Sucesso. The two camps are linked by a rough road that was developed in late 2022, according to satellite images. 

The costs of doing business in Macomia

Those conducting business in Macomia face risks from all quarters. On 26 January, the business premises of the trader Ali Maridade were raided by an unidentified group, his goods stolen, and the premises set alight. Maridade himself has not been seen since he was taken by security forces on the night of 9 January. His premises are in the middle of town, an area that is meant to be patrolled by either FADM or Rwanda Defence Force patrols. The raiders, suspected by some to be connected to the security forces, took little. According to a local source, his family keeps most stock at home overnight. 

The following week, on 2 February, a group of ISM militants stopped vehicles owned by two Macomia businessmen near Manica, approximately 6 km from Mucojo on the Macomia-Mucojo road. The vehicles were traveling without a security escort. Militants took people’s possessions, as well as payments of up to 30,000 meticais (450 US dollars) from individuals. The vehicles regularly ply between Macomia and Darumba, carrying passengers and goods. 

Footballers detained in Quissanga

On 31 January, security forces detained approximately 30 young men in Tandanhangue, near Quissanga district headquarters, on suspicion of being insurgents. The detainees were then moved to Ibo Island. According to local sources, the group had come from Pangane to play a football match on nearby Quirimba Island. They were soon released and returned to Pangane. Local sources say the youth, on their return to Pangane, targeted residents of the village with Quirimba origins, destroying some houses. 

ISM remains active around Mocímboa da Praia

On 30 January, a FADM naval patrol clashed with ISM at Muissune Island (also known as Suna Island), which lies approximately 24 km east of Mocímboa da Praia port. According to a Mozambique Times report, three insurgents were killed in the clash. This was the second clash at the island in January. One week before, on 23 January, insurgents on the island shelled an approaching Mozambican naval patrol, though they missed their target. 

Another group of ISM militants remains ashore and on 30 January entered Nanquidunga village, south of Mocímboa da Praia town, where they took food but harmed neither people nor property. According to one source, a Rwandan patrol was sent to the village in response but no clash ensued. 

Focus: the fight for control of Catupa forest

The coordinated attacks in Catupa forest on 31 January were just the most recent clashes in a years-long struggle for control of the area. Catupa forest lies south of the Messalo river valley and sits between the N380 to the west, and the Indian Ocean to the east. ISM insurgents established themselves in the area after international intervention forces drove them out of their primary bases along the Messalo river in 2021. In response to this increased insurgent presence, FADM established positions at Namabo and Catupa in the second half of 2022, according to satellite imagery. 

Most years since 2021, state forces have undertaken operations against ISM positions in Catupa. In April 2022, Rwandan forces were deployed against insurgents in the area. In July 2024, they returned and conducted short-lived air operations against ISM positions. A similar operation was launched in September 2025. Yet FADM’s positions in the area have been under regular attack since they were established. Since August 2023, there have been at least five assaults on the Namabo and Catupa positions. 

ISM is not seeking to take over these static positions. They are appealing targets primarily because they are a source of military materiel. A video released by IS of the booty taken in the attack showed a range of mortars, rocket-propelled grenades and their launchers, automatic rifles, and machine guns seized from one of the camps. Such arms seizures have been an increasingly important element of ISM operations in recent years. Such attacks also disrupt state forces' operations in the area, helping ISM secure its presence. 

These attacks are likely to continue. The Namabo and Catupa positions will likely be re-manned as in the past. Yet ISM’s repeated, successful attacks raise questions about the strategic importance of holding these positions, which are isolated and therefore hard to provision and support. The bases have been unable to exert effective control over the area and leave troops exposed to ISM actions — a situation likely to play on the minds of isolated FADM soldiers. 

Roundup

Mozambique and TotalEnergies restart $20 billion LNG project, targeting 2029 production

President Daniel Chapo and TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné formally relaunched the long-delayed $20 billion Mozambique LNG project in Afungi, Palma district, nearly five years after operations were halted due to insurgent attacks. The French energy major said an offshore vessel has begun installing infrastructure, and activity will ramp up in the coming months. However, negotiations with the government regarding increased project costs following delays are ongoing. The plant is expected to produce around 13 million tonnes of LNG per year and is projected to generate significant revenue and employment opportunities when it begins operations in 2029. 

Cholera spreads in central and northern Mozambique, with nearly 5,000 reported cases

Mozambique is facing a widening cholera outbreak, with authorities reporting nearly 5,000 suspected cases. The province of Nampula has the highest number of cases, with 1,930 infections and 23 deaths. The provinces of Tete and Cabo Delgado follow, with 1,755 and 728 cases, and 28 and eight deaths, respectively. In Cabo Delgado, residents of Naioto in the Montepuez district vandalized the local health center after false rumors circulated that cholera response measures were causing deaths, according to local authorities.