Mozambique Conflict Monitor Update: 29 October 2025

Situation Summary

ISM ambushes police convoy in Muidumbe

Insurgent activity continued in the Muidumbe district, with militants attacking security forces, targeting civilians, and disrupting traffic in the area. On 17 October, insurgents looted farms and temporarily halted traffic on the N380 highway near Miangelewa.  On 21 October, militants ambushed a police convoy near the village of Xitaxi on the N380 highway, killing the driver of the lead police vehicle, which they hit with a rocket-propelled grenade. The convoy was traveling between Auasse and Macomia. The ambush disrupted traffic for several hours. 

The ambush sparked panic in surrounding villages and in the district capital of Namacande, prompting some residents to flee, according to a local source. The Islamic State (IS) later published images of the attack, showing the burned Mahindra pickup and the body of the dead officer. In a rare move, Interior Minister Paulo Chachine confirmed the killing of the police officer.

On 22 October, five fishermen were captured and beheaded near Nguri Lagoon, according to a source. Their bodies were discovered the next morning. On 26 October, the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) launched a bombardment over Nguri, reportedly targeting insurgent positions along the lagoon. Nguri Lagoon is less than 10 kilometers from the site of the Xitaxi ambush on 21  October,  which suggests the insurgent group has been able to sustain a presence in the area. 

ISM targets civilians in Mocímboa da Praia and Metuge

ISM carried out at least three attacks in Mocímboa da Praia district between 14 and 20 October, according to claims issued by IS. On 14 October, militants beheaded a security guard employed by Rwandan security company ISCO to guard the gas project on the Afungi peninsula. He was killed during a raid on his home village of Maputo, near the border with Palma district. IS later claimed responsibility for two more incidents: the burning of two houses in Mbau on 19 October and the killing of a civilian in Quelimane village on 20 October. These latter claims remain unverified. 

Further south, insurgents were seen crossing National Highway 1 (N1) between Impiri and Nanlia in Metuge district on 16 October, possibly returning from Nampula. By 21 October, residents were fleeing Impiri in Metuge district and Intutupue in Ancuabe amid sightings of militants. Two civilians producing alcoholic beverages from sugarcane near Nicavaco, Metuge district, were found beheaded on the same day, according to a local source. IS claimed responsibility for the killings.

On 22 October, two ISM fighters appeared in Natugo village, in the Mahate administrative post in Quissanga district, and met with two children, whom they asked to warn residents of their presence, according to a local source. Three days later, on 25 October, a group of around 20 insurgents raided Tacanama village, near Nacoba, 3 km from Natugo village, stealing motorcycles and looting food before retreating into nearby forests. No casualties or property destruction were reported. 

Unrest at Montepuez mining sites

The Montepuez district experienced two major incidents around mining operations. On 14 October, ISM militants took over a Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) camp guarding a gold mining concession in the Nairoto administrative post without meeting resistance from the troops stationed there. The site, operated by the Mwiriti mining company, owned by senior Frelimo member Raimundo Pachinuapa, was raided at dawn. UIR officers fled their posts during the assault, as they were outnumbered by the attackers, and remain missing. Militants set fire to mining machinery, vehicles, and motorcycles. No casualties were reported.

The following day, on 15 October, violent clashes broke out between informal miners and police in the Montepuez district after security forces reportedly killed an informal miner in the village of Ntseue. Enraged miners marched with the victim’s body to the nearby Montepuez Ruby Mining (MRM) compound, where they confronted officers guarding the gate. Two police officers were killed, and their weapons were seized by the crowd. Gemfields, MRM’s parent company, confirmed the incident in a statement suggesting the informal miner was killed during a raid by immigration authorities.

Mozambican navy accused of killing civilians off the coast of Macomia

On 16 October, three fishermen were allegedly shot dead by Mozambican marines off the coast of Mucojo, Macomia district. Witnesses stated that a naval vessel opened fire while the men were fishing. This event led representatives of the communities in Mucojo to meet with Rwandan forces to discuss the continued attacks on fishermen, in which Rwandan forces stated that they had already raised the issue with Mozambican authorities and were awaiting a response.

Meanwhile, on 24 October, Local Force militias ambushed a group of insurgents near Litandacua, also in Macomia, killing three. Local sources said the militants were traveling from Balama and Montepuez toward Macomia to reinforce bases dispersed by recent military operations. 

Focus: ISM’s expanding reach across Cabo Delgado 

While ISM activity in October persisted in key northern districts such as Palma and Mocímboa da Praia, incidents also extended into Balama and Montepuez along the Lúrio river, where insurgents have maintained a presence since the end of August. The spread of activity in October is well beyond the traditional Muidumbe-Macomia heartland (see map below). The focus on the north is potentially linked to the increasing importance of Palma ahead of the restart of the LNG project, although a small group is unlikely to be able to threaten the site. 

The pattern followed in 2025 differs from 2024, with a wider operational reach,  beyond long-established strongholds (see map below).  This geographic pattern underscores ISM’s continued resilience, seemingly operating in smaller groups that enhance their mobility, are harder to track, and can potentially stretch security forces more easily.

ISM becoming active across a wider spread of territory has not come at the expense of operational capacity. Following a decline in 2023, ISM activity in Cabo Delgado increased sharply in 2024, and it has been able to sustain that intensity since. In 2025, some months have reached a level of activity similar to 2022 (see graph below).  This suggests a renewed capacity for sustained insurgent activity and an increased operational reach in Cabo Delgado. 

Roundup

TotalEnergies lifts force majeure after Rwanda protection guarantee

TotalEnergies, the French company leading the Mozambique LNG project in Palma district, announced its long-awaited decision to lift the force majeure declaration on the project, in place since the insurgent attack on Palma town in 2021. In a letter to Mozambican President Daniel Chapo, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the decision followed comments made by Chapo earlier this month confirming that Rwandan forces would remain in Cabo Delgado at least until the project, and a neighboring project led by ExxonMobil, were built. The decision means work on the project can restart in earnest, though preparatory work has been ongoing, with 4,000 workers already on site, Minister of Defence Cristóvão Chume said last week. Pouyanné’s letter added that the company still requires Mozambique’s government to recognize that the project has incurred 4.5 billion US dollars in additional costs due to the 4 1/2-year stoppage, and to extend its production license by 10 years.

Cabo Delgado is “stable and viable” despite media narrative, government claims

Minister of Defence Cristóvão Chume criticized people who talk about terrorism in Cabo Delgado province “every day,” giving the impression that the province was a place where “you can't go.” Speaking after the opening of a session of parliament on 22 October, Chume said that this narrative was discouraging investment in Mozambique. “We should continue to invest in a positive narrative that makes people think that Mozambique is still a place where we can invest, not scare people away,” he said, adding that Cabo Delgado was “stable and viable.”

Mozambique removed from money laundering and terrorism financing “grey list” 

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has removed Mozambique from the “grey list,” officially known as “Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring” which includes countries identified by the FATF as having strategic deficiencies in their measures to counter money laundering and the financing of terrorism. A plenary session of the FATF, held in Paris on 24 October, informed the Mozambican authorities that the country has been removed from the list, where it featured since 2022. Countries on this list are subject to increased monitoring and scrutiny by the FATF. The list is intended to serve as a warning to the countries concerned to improve their performance and comply with international standards.