Regional Overview: Africa | August 2023

Ethiopia: Political violence increases in Oromia and Amhara regions

Political violence increased in Ethiopia by over 90% in August compared to the previous month, driven by conflicts in both Amhara and Oromia regions. In Oromia, armed clashes involving the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane more than tripled, driving the highest number of political violence events recorded in the region since May 2023 (for more details, see EPO Monthly: May). The rise in clashes between the OLF-Shane and security forces came as the ENDF launched offensives against the group, with the government announcing that it was actively engaging against ‘rebels’ in the region and Amhara.¹

In Amhara, political violence grew in August on the back of increasing clashes between Fano militias and state forces, reaching the highest level since August 2021 when Tigray People’s Liberation Front and security forces clashed for control of several areas in the region. Political violence more than doubled in August compared to the month prior. Clashes involving Fano militias and security forces have been consistently rising over the past three months. On 4 August, the government declared a six-month state of emergency in an attempt to contain the situation, a maneuver that ended up bringing more discontent among the Fano militias.² The escalation in Amhara comes after weeks of demonstrations and general disorder in April following the announcement of a plan to reintegrate the Amhara regional special forces into the Ethiopian National Defense Force, federal police, or state police (for more details, see EPO Monthly: August).

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Gabon: Military coup ousts President Ali Bongo Ondimba

On 30 August, shortly after incumbent President Ali Bongo Ondimba was re-elected for a third term, a group of senior Republican Guards announced a coup d’état on national television. The new military regime annulled the election, dissolved the government, and put President Bongo under house arrest in the capital, Libreville.³ The coup follows concerns from the opposition and international community regarding the fairness and transparency of elections held on 26 August, due to a lack of international observers, internet shut-downs, and the imposition of curfews.⁴ The junta announced General Brice Oligui Nguema, a former associate of the deposed president, as head of the newly formed Committee for the Transition and the Restoration of Institutions.⁵ The announcement was reportedly followed by hundreds of people taking the streets to support the coup.⁶ The coup in Gabon is the latest in a series of takeovers that have swept African countries in recent years and comes only weeks after Niger’s Presidential Guard ousted President Mohamed Bazoum.

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Libya: Rival factions clash in Tripoli

Clashes broke out in Tripoli between the Rada Special Deterrence Forces (SDF) and the 444th Brigade on 14 August, beginning in Ayn Zara and expanding to areas around Mitiga airport and Tripoli University. The fighting led to an estimated 55 reported fatalities across two days of armed clashes, the deadliest outbreak of fighting since the ceasefire in 2020.⁷ The clashes came after the Islamist SDF militia arrested the commander of the 444th Brigade, which is linked to Libya’s Ministry of Defense. The commander, Mahmud Hamza, was detained, while he was en route to accompany Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah at a military graduation ceremony in Misrata.⁸ Both factions used light, medium, and heavy weapons,⁹ with at least one of the factions targeting ambulances in the city as medics tried to tend to the injured. Judicial police joined the fighting in an attempt to end the clashes after Dbeibah ordered the Ministry of Interior to intervene. Negotiations in Suq al-Jumaa district in Tripoli ultimately led to a peace settlement.¹⁰ Under the agreement, Hamza was handed over to the Stability Support Apparatus and released, while the 444th Brigade was allowed to hold the positions they seized over the course of the fighting. The rivalry between the SDF and 444th Brigade has escalated since Hamza defected to the 444th Brigade in 2020, with the two competing for control over strategic locations around Tripoli.¹¹

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Niger: Rise in insecurity following the military coup

The first month of junta rule in Niger was marked by a 42% increase in political violence compared to the month prior, primarily driven by ongoing IS Sahel and JNIM activity, organized banditry in the southern Maradi region, and intercommunal violence between ethnic Djerma-Songhai and Fulani in the western Tillaberi region. ACLED data show that incidents of violence targeting civilians perpetrated by IS Sahel quadrupled in August relative to July. Suspected JNIM militants were also blamed for an attack on military forces near Koutougou, which left over 100 dead. Taken together, these developments have contributed to a spike in the lethality of political violence in Niger – which had been continuously decreasing in recent years – to its highest levels since March 2021. At the beginning of August, analysis of ACLED data contradicted the claim that violence had surged in the immediate lead-up to the coup, as suggested by junta leaders. Notwithstanding, since then the military government in Niger has failed to deliver on its promise to improve stability and security in the country.

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Nigeria: Increased insecurity in northern states

Political violence in the northwestern, north-central, and northeastern states remained high in August, with increases in civilian targeting events related to banditry reported in Katsina, Niger, and Kaduna. Notably, in Katsina, a spike in attacks on civilians in the Dan-Musa and Dandume local government areas (LGA) drove political violence in the state to the highest level recorded by ACLED since the beginning of data collection for Nigeria in 1997. In Niger state, militia members ambushed security forces and local self-defense militias responding to an attack in Wushishi LGA that left dozens dead. The following day, a helicopter on a rescue mission to the area crashed, resulting in more fatalities. The military moved away from claims that the helicopter was shot down by militiamen and attributed the clash to the bad weather.¹² The incident prompted Niger State Governor Umar Bago to open a dialogue with the militia.¹³ This move represents a reversal of previous security policies involving banditry in the country, which have relied on increased military offensives against the groups. In a separate development, renewed clashes between the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the Group for the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad (JAS) in Borno state reportedly left hundreds of militants dead in Marte and Kukawa LGAs, in the Lake Chad region.

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South Africa: Taxi driver demonstrations drive worsening unrest in Cape Town

Rioting in South Africa more than doubled in August compared to the previous month, driven by a surge of violent taxi driver-led demonstrations in Cape Town. The demonstrations came after the South African National Taxi Council (SANTACO) announced a one-week shutdown in the province following the approval of new traffic by-laws.¹⁴ SANTACO reported that the by-laws have led to taxi drivers being disproportionately targeted by authorities with the impoundment of vehicles for violations.¹⁵ Over an eight-day period, demonstrators clashed with police and set dozens of vehicles on fire. Police arrested over 120 people for property damage, looting, and public violence.

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