Regional Overview: Africa | February 2024

Chad: Security forces kill political opposition leader

Amid escalating tensions in the run-up to the presidential elections scheduled for May, security forces killed opposition leader Yaya Dillo on 28 February in a gunfight at his party headquarters in the capital, N’Djamena. Dillo frequently criticized the regime and was running as an opposition candidate against his cousin, current President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno.¹ The government earlier accused members of Dillo’s party, the Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF), of attacking the National State Security Agency and attempting to kill the president of the Supreme Court — allegations Dillo denied.² Dillo’s wife and several other family members were killed in 2021 at the hands of the Presidential Guard, then headed by Itno. While Chad recently experienced lower levels of political violence than most of its neighbors, averaging fewer than 10 events per month in 2023, violent events increased in February for the third consecutive month.

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Democratic Republic of the Congo: Escalating battles in the east as M23 nears Goma city

In February, the M23 rebel group approached the outskirts of Goma city, an economic hub and the regional capital of North Kivu province briefly occupied by the rebels in late 2012. Battles involving the M23 increased by 15% in February over the previous month, the third consecutive month of escalating fighting. Rwandan military forces (RDF) also continued to reportedly operate alongside the M23, drawing international condemnation. France joined a growing group of countries calling on Rwanda to end hostilities in the DRC and end its support for the M23.³ In February, the M23 overtook several areas around Bahunde chiefdom, fighting against Congolese military forces and allied armed groups operating under the banner of the Wazalendo coalition. Congolese forces risk isolation from other parts of the country as the M23 controls an increasing number of main roads into Goma. As violence approached the populated areas around Goma, many civilians fled for safety.⁴  

For more details on the surge of violence, see this brief on M23’s push toward Goma.

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Ethiopia: Clashes increased in Oromia and Amhara

Battles between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) — referred to by the government as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)-Shane — increased in Oromia region in February. The two sides convened for peace talks in Tanzania late last year, but they failed to reach an agreement and have since resumed hostilities.⁵ In Amhara, ongoing fighting pits the ENDF against the Fano militias. The violence in the Amhara region prompted the ENDF to close roads and implement a state of emergency in the Central Shewa area.⁶ Fighting also broke out between ethnic militias last month in a disputed territory of Southern Tigray Zone between the Amhara and Tigray regions, the first escalation of clashes in this area since October 2022. The increased clashes in Oromia and Amhara regions collectively led to a 65% increase in the number of battle events in Ethiopia last month compared to January.

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Senegal: Demonstrations erupt over election delays

President Macky Sall’s controversial decision to postpone the scheduled 25 February poll until December drove a surge in demonstrations last month, more than doubling compared to the average over the past year. The majority of demonstrations remained peaceful, with security forces dispersing numerous gatherings, leading to five reported deaths and dozens of injuries. President Sall, in power since 2012, justified the election deferment by citing disputes over the disqualification of potential candidates and corruption within the electoral process.⁷ Parliament eventually sanctioned the delay until 15 December 2024 after security forces forcibly entered the parliament building to remove opposition lawmakers who contested the bill.⁸ The delayed elections will extend Sall’s presidential tenure beyond the expiration of his second term, currently under review by a national dialogue panel.⁹

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South Africa: Rising demonstrations as May elections approach

Amid polls showing declining support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party,¹⁰  President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on 20 February that South Africa’s 2024 general elections would take place on 29 May.¹¹ The upcoming vote motivated many to take to the streets and voice demands toward the political establishment, with demonstrations rising over 50% in February over the previous month. More than 80% of the gatherings remained peaceful, with unrest widely dispersed nationwide. The highest number of events occurred in Gauteng province, an area of growing opposition to the ruling ANC.¹² Across South Africa, at least 40 demonstrations last month included reported concerns over poor public service delivery, such as lack of water, poor roads, and electricity outages. Poor public service delivery has become an increasingly salient political issue in South Africa, with frustrations over corruption, mismanagement, and legacies of inequality from the apartheid regime.¹³ Opposition parties have looked to draw on these frustrations ahead of the elections, sharing manifestos with specific points related to service delivery issues, especially the challenges of load shedding.¹⁴

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