Monthly regional updates Update

Regional Overview: Africa | January 2024

Analysis of political violence and demonstration trends across various African nations.

8 February 2024

Available in French (PDF)

Author: Ladd Serwat

Senior Analyst, Africa

Comoros: Demonstrations surge after the re-election of President Azali Assoumani

The first African presidential election of 2024 resulted in a victory for incumbent President Azali Assoumani and the ruling Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (CRC) party.¹ In response, demonstrators gathered across the Comorian islands to voice their frustrations over the electoral process, including concerns over electoral fraud and political oppression.² Nearly half of the demonstrations escalated into violent or destructive activity, including tire burning and the construction of barricades. In Mremani, Anjouan, rioters ransacked the town hall headquarters and set fire to a gendarmerie building, while in Moroni, gendarmerie reportedly killed a demonstrator and injured others to disperse a riot at the house of the Minister of Telecommunications. Overall, demonstrations in January were 10 times higher than the monthly average recorded during the previous 12 months. Tensions over the 2024 election have been heightened since a 2018 referendum — boycotted by opposition parties — allowed President Assoumani to run for an additional term.³

DRC: Communal violence escalates between Teke and Yaka communities

Growing contestation over land and local authority between the Teke and Yaka communities in Kwilu and Mai-Ndombe provinces led to a 67% rise in political violence in January over the previous month. January was the fourth consecutive month of escalating violence between the Teke and Yaka. Mobondo militias — claiming to represent the Yaka community⁴ — increasingly fought against state forces, with battles reaching the highest level since the peak of violence in August 2022. Although the government deployed military forces to restore order, locals accused soldiers of a late and violent response.⁵ State forces frequently fight against Yaka and Mobondo militias, but there are no recorded events of state forces opposing the Teke militias. The majority of violence remains concentrated in the western part of Kwilu and Mai-Ndombe provinces near Kwamouth territory, where Mobondo militias took control of several villages last month. Mobondo militias have increasingly overtaken territory in Kwamouth and Bandandu since 2023, with military forces limited to patrolling the larger national roadways.⁶ Due to the insecurity and rising looting by Mobondo militias, state forces closed the primary road to the province from Kinshasa in January.⁷ The escalating battles in January also coincided with several attacks on civilians — especially in areas where military forces withdrew⁸ — reportedly leading to at least 18 fatalities.

Niger: Escalating insurgent violence amidst renewed offensive

Violence involving the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) reached its highest recorded level in Niger, rising by 46% in January compared to the previous month. Much of the rise in political violence last month involved increased use of IEDs by JNIM, especially around the vast mining area and military outpost of Gotheye, situated northwest of the Nigerien capital Niamey in the Tillaberi region. The Nigerien armed forces responded with airstrikes against JNIM militants, reportedly killing more than 50 civilians during bombardments that hit the area of Tiawa, Tillaberi region. New armed groups also formed to defend against the JNIM expansion in Tillaberi, including self-defense groups in Tchalakame composed of ethnic Djerma. In September 2023, JNIM launched a large-scale offensive against military forces, allied militias, and Russian mercenaries in Burkina Faso and Mali before spreading into southwestern Niger by October.⁹

Somalia: Rare spike in demonstration events over Ethiopia-Somaliland agreements

On 1 January, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) providing sea access to landlocked Ethiopia in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland statehood — the first country to officially do so — and increase bilateral economic and security cooperation.¹⁰ The MoU raised regional tensions, with the Mogadishu government and al-Shabaab both rejecting the agreement.¹¹ These negotiations between Ethiopia and Somaliland contributed to a rare spike in demonstration events in Somalia, with many voicing disapproval of the MoU. The number of demonstrations in January was more than five times higher than the average over the past year (for more, see ACLED’s Sudan Situation Update: The Complexities of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Sea Access Deal).

Sudan: Deadly airstrikes escalate in al-Jazirah state

In January, the Sudanese military forces (SAF) carried out an aerial offensive on the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in al-Jazirah, conducting over 20 airstrikes. SAF aerial bombardments hit RSF targets in 41% of these events but over a third struck civilian targets, resulting in the reported deaths of at least 48 civilians. The campaign came in response to the RSF’s takeover of al-Jazirah’s state capital, Wad Madani, and numerous other locations in the state in December (for more, see ACLED’s Africa Regional Overview: December 2023). Amid the heightened violence, local organizations warn of the rising likelihood of food production failure in the agricultural sector of al-Jazirah state, which is vital for the country’s food supply.¹² Further, new armed groups — notably, Resistance Committees and local self-defense militias — entered combat in January to resist the RSF in al-Jazirah.

Footnotes

Region: Africa
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Ladd Serwat