Regional Overview: Africa | June 2023

Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda: Cross-border ADF violence

In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Uganda, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) launched around 20 attacks and reportedly killed at least 100 civilians in June. In recent months, the ADF has increased its targeting of civilians. In June, civilian targeting made up 80% of the total number of violent events involving the ADF – up from an average of 60% in the year prior. While the ADF primarily operates in eastern DRC, they carried out a high-profile attack on the Lhubiriha Secondary School in Uganda on 16 June. The attack reportedly left at least 37 students and seven other civilians dead, making it the deadliest event in Uganda since the Kasese violence in November 2016. Following the school attack, Ugandan military forces actively pursued the ADF into DRC, clashing near the Talia and Mwalika rivers and leading to several reported ADF fatalities, including an ADF commander in Mwalika, Nord-Kivu. In addition, recent reports show evidence of ADF militants and supporters sent on scouting missions to new areas with aims for the ADF to expand operations into Kinshasa, Tshopo, Haut-Uélé, and South-Kivu provinces of DRC.¹

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Madagascar: Growing banditry and violent demonstrations ahead of presidential elections in November

Dahalo banditry continued to worsen near urban centers last month as political tensions grew amidst electricity cuts and inflation in the lead-up to presidential elections on 9 November. In the capital region of Analanga, violence involving dahalo rose for the third consecutive month, while levels of dahalo violence remain elevated across the country compared to the monthly average in 2022. Recognizing the growing insecurity, the Council of Ministers decided in May to recruit 4,000 volunteer soldiers – called zazavao – to support the military operations against dahalo.²

Amidst the growing insecurity and upcoming elections, demonstrations more than doubled in June compared to the monthly average over the past year – reaching the highest level recorded since May 2012, when widespread calls by teachers’ unions and demands for media freedom led to a spike in protests. Demonstrators mobilized around a range of issues, including ongoing electricity load shedding and tensions around the authorization of political meetings of the opposition I Love Madagascar (TIM) party led by former President Marc Ravalomanana.³ Police officers dispersed TIM supporters several times in June after security forces put up barricades to stop supporters from reaching meeting points. Violence was prevalent at the demonstrations, with 78% of events involving violent or destructive activity, primarily burning tires and blocking roads.

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Senegal: Demonstrations rise after the sentencing of Ousmane Sonko

In June, demonstrations rose 40% compared to the month prior. This is the third consecutive month of increasing demonstrations as PASTEF supporters protested against the sentencing of opposition party leader Ousmane Sonko to two years in prison. While Sonko was acquitted of the charge of rape, he was charged with “corrupting young people,” meaning that he was found to have acted immorally towards an individual younger than 21.⁴ Demonstrations took place across the country, with 45% occurring in Dakar, and elevated levels seen in Sedhiou and Thies regions. Police responded to 65% of the demonstrations, making numerous arrests and resulting in at least 20 reported fatalities. For PASTEF, the arrests and case against Sonko are politically motivated to block his presidential ambitions.⁵ The elevated demonstrations in June follow a recent spike in PASTEF demonstrations in March 2023 against politically motivated arrests and the potential third term of current president Macky Sall. While total demonstrations were higher in March of this year, riots in June reached the highest level since March 2021, when PASTEF supporters protested against Ousmane Sonko’s previous arrest.

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Sierra Leone: Election-related violence as incumbent Julius Maada Bio wins a second term

General elections on 24 June resulted in the re-election of incumbent Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) over contender Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). The ruling SLPP also won 60% of parliamentary seats, or 81 seats, compared to the 54 seats won by the APC.⁶ The month of June was marked by increased violence between SLPP and APC supporters, with eight violent events recorded between the two groups resulting in two reported fatalities. Overall, political violence remained elevated in June, with event numbers more than double the monthly average over the past year and concentrated in the Southern province. In response to the party-related violence and disorder, security forces conducted raids and made numerous arrests in June, especially targeting APC supporters and active or retired soldiers. Police also raided the APC headquarters in Freetown during a post-election press conference, using tear gas and live ammunition to disperse the meeting.

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Sudan: Rising contestation in South Kordofan between SAF, RSF, and SPLM-N Abdelaziz al-Hilu faction

As the fighting between military forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued into its third month, violence rose in South Kordofan state, resulting in over 60 reported fatalities. While violence remained highest in Khartoum, political violence events in South Kordofan rose from only three events in April and a single event in May to 15 events last month, tripling from the monthly average in South Kordofan state over the past year. In several areas of the state, the Abdelaziz al-Hilu faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) clashed with the SAF, with less frequent clashes between the SAF and the RSF. SPLM-N Abdelaziz al-Hilu faction fighters overtook SAF military bases in Gardood Toro, Kadugli, Kululu Terai, Kologi, Teis, Daldako, Um Suran, Hamra, and Jabal Abul in South Kordofan. In addition, the RSF seized a SAF base in Tyba. The seizure of these bases in South Kordofan may permit SPLM-N Abdelaziz al-Hilu militants increased access to weapons and strategic positions, enabling the group’s further engagement in operations in the coming months. Since the war between the SAF and the RSF began on 15 April, ACLED has recorded 800 political violence events and nearly 3,400 reported fatalities across Sudan. Fighting persisted in June despite numerous truce agreements between the SAF and RSF.

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