Monthly regional updates Update

Regional Overview: Africa | March 2023

Key trends in political violence and demonstrations across Africa including Kenya, South Africa, Somalia, Senegal, Nigeria, and Libya.

6 April 2023

Author: Ladd Serwat

Senior Analyst, Africa

Kenya: Elevated civilian targeting by ethnic militias

Violence targeting civilians rose 30% in March compared to February, with ethnic militias carrying out half of this violence. Violence involving ethnic-pastoralist militias, including Pokot, Turkana, and Samburu ethnic groups, also increased in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the last quarter of 2022. Pokot ethnic militias, allegedly entangled in cattle rustling networks, continue to be the most active, as they were involved in almost 60% of the total political violence events by pastoralist militias last year.¹ Ethnic-pastoralist violence is largely centered on the arid and semi-arid northwestern counties, driven by competition over access to land and water resources, along with the increasing availability of small arms. In addition to the elevated violence in the northwest, civilian targeting rose sharply in Kisumu, Baringo, and Samburu counties last month, which usually have lower levels of violence targeting civilians. Baringo and Samburu counties are sporadically affected by cattle raids by ethnic-pastoralist militias, while civilian targeting in Kisumu county rose following mob violence events by Azimio La Umoja supporters.

Back to Map

South Africa: Political and labor group demonstrations spike

The National Education Health and Allied Workers Union (NEHAWU) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party organized widespread demonstrations in March. Hundreds of demonstrations took place in South Africa across all nine provinces, the highest in Gauteng, Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces and concentrated in the urban centers of Cape Town and Johannesburg. The EFF demonstrators called for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s resignation over a lack of jobs, electricity, and corruption allegations,² while NEHAWU strikers demanded wage increases for health workers.³ The ruling African National Congress (ANC) has faced mounting pressure due to corruption scandals and the lack of progress on critical issues such as unemployment and electricity supply.⁴ The rise in demonstrations may further erode the ANC party’s support base and threaten its parliamentary majority in next year’s national elections.⁵ The spike in demonstrations led to high levels of political disorder in South Africa, more than doubling the monthly average over the past year. While most demonstrations remained peaceful, around a third turned violent. Actions by the NEHAWU severely impacted hospitals and government offices, with demonstrators blocking building entrances with burning tires and refusing to treat patients. Law enforcement responded with the arrests of hundreds of demonstrators on charges including public violence, intimidation, damage to critical infrastructure, and theft.⁶

Back to Map

Somalia: Shifting proportion of explosions and remote violence

Explosions and remote violence events increased in March compared to February, even as political violence in Somalia decreased overall. Notably, the number of explosions and remote violence events increased last month in Banadir and Lower Juba regions, largely driven by al-Shabaab activity. Explosives and remote violence made up 27% of political violence events in March — compared to a 21% average over the past year — reflecting an ongoing change in conflict dynamics in recent months as battles between security forces with allied clan militias and al-Shabaab continue to fall (for more, see Somalia: Conflict Expands to Galmudug State). Despite the recent decline in battle events, they may escalate in new regions in the coming months, driven by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s declaration of a new phase of operations against al-Shabaab on 26 March, alongside an increase in military support from the United States.⁷

Back to Map

Senegal: Demonstrations Rise Against Presidential Third Term

Political tensions between the incumbent government and political opposition groups rose in Senegal in March over increasing speculation that incumbent President Macky Sall could bypass the constitution and seek a third presidential term in 2024.⁸ Ousmane Sonko, leader of the Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics, and Fraternity (PASTEF) party, called on opposition supporters under the Yewwi Askan Wi coalition to demonstrate against the alleged corruption of the justice system in light of Sonko’s ongoing trial and President Sall’s potential third term.⁹ Sonko’s call triggered increases in protests and riots in March compared to the previous month. Demonstrations reached their highest level since March 2021, when PASTEF called for the release of Ousmane Sonko, who at the time was in prison for public disturbances.¹⁰ While most demonstrations were concentrated in Dakar, demonstrations notably doubled in Ziguinchor compared to the previous month. Ziguinchor is a stronghold for Sonko and the capital of Casamance region, home to a decades-long insurgency. In response to the demonstrations, state forces arrested over 400 PASTEF supporters,¹¹ as well as former Prime Minister Cheikh Haguibou Soumare for publicly criticizing the government.¹² In addition, one PASTEF activist was reportedly shot and killed during a demonstration in Bignona on 20 March. Rising repression and demonstration violence may disrupt the stability in Senegal, a democratic mainstay amidst a troubled region.

Back to Map

Nigeria: Election Workers Targeted During Gubernatorial Elections

Gubernatorial elections were held on 18 March and resulted in the dominant All Progressives Congress (APC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) holding onto most previously-held seats, amidst intimidation and low voter turnout.¹³ Violence targeting the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) surged with over 30 recorded events in March, including attacks on polling workers, destruction of INEC office equipment, and theft of ballots. INEC targeting events were highest in Kano state, where the minority New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate, Abba Kabir, upset the incumbent APC party candidate.¹⁴ Some observers noted that Kabir’s victory was expected after the NNPP won in Kano state during the presidential election, yet that victory came amidst destruction and theft of voting materials at INEC offices.¹⁵ Additionally, a concentration of INEC office targeting was reported in Lagos state, a key battleground for the defeated Labour Party following Peter Obi’s loss during the presidential election in February.¹⁶

Back to Map

Libya: Persistent Militia Violence

Following the release of the United Nations Fact-Finding Mission report on Libya on 3 March, numerous testimonies indicate ongoing political violence in the country by state forces and militias, as well as expansive organized crime networks.¹⁷ While political violence in Libya has declined since peace talks and ceasefire agreements amongst numerous stakeholders in late 2020 and the formation of a UN-backed interim government, fighting between and amongst militias and competing governments has persisted, along with violence targeting civilians. In March, retaliatory clashes broke out between the Rahbat al-Duru’ Battalion and the Tajoura Lions in Tajoura, Tripoli, after an initial attack reportedly killed two Rahbat al-Duru’ Batallion fighters. Additionally, a militia associated with Abdel-Ghani Al-Kikli (also known as Gheniwa) and Lotfi Al-Harari abducted the former Security Director of Shahat, Major General Mohamed Al-Hassi, in Tripoli.¹⁸ Civilians associated with the competing governments of Libya are frequently attacked by armed groups, with a parliamentarian abducted in February and a female member of parliament targeted on two occasions by rocket-propelled grenades in January.

Back to Map

Footnotes

Region: Africa
Share on: X

Facebook

Linkedin

Ladd Serwat

Kenya: Elevated civilian targeting by ethnic militias

South Africa: Political and labor group demonstrations spike

Somalia: Shifting proportion of explosions and remote violence

Senegal: Demonstrations Rise Against Presidential Third Term

Nigeria: Election Workers Targeted During Gubernatorial Elections

Libya: Persistent Militia Violence

Footnotes