Regional Overview: Asia-Pacific | January 2024

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Bangladesh: Opposition boycott and electoral violence mark the Awami League’s re-election

Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was re-elected to serve for a fourth consecutive term. Her party, the Awami League (AL), won 225 out of 300 parliamentary seats amid a boycott by the main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).¹ In the run-up to the elections, the BNP carried out nationwide demonstrations questioning the impartiality of the electoral process and calling upon citizens to also abstain from voting (for more, see ACLED’s recent report, The Violent Politics of Bangladesh’s 2024 Elections). Voter turnout was low, with observers casting doubt even on the official figure of 40%.² Given the BNP boycott, independent candidates — many of whom were former AL members who had failed to receive the official nominations — won the second-highest number of seats.³

Violent skirmishes between supporters of AL and independent candidates took place in the run-up to the vote, leaving hundreds reportedly injured and at least eight people killed, including two on election day. As expected, the BNP and other opposition parties rejected the results and launched fresh demonstrations calling for the dissolution of the newly elected government. Despite the arrests and detentions of thousands of opposition activists ahead of the polls,⁴ ACLED records nearly 34 anti-government demonstrations in January. The United Nations expressed concern over violence before and after the elections, and called upon the government to respect political freedoms and human rights.⁵

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India: Inter-ethnic clashes continue in Manipur

In January, there was an uptick in political violence in the northeastern state of Manipur, as the inter-ethnic conflict between the Kuki and Meitei communities entered its ninth month. ACLED records a 78% increase in armed clashes compared to the previous month, driven by increased fighting between the two warring groups as well as with security forces. In the first half of January, suspected armed Kuki assailants reportedly killed at least eight Meitei civilians in two separate attacks, leading to increased clashes between Kuki and Meitei groups in the peripheral areas between the Kuki-dominated hill region and the Meitei-dominated valley region.⁶ On the other hand, Tengnoupal district, along the India-Myanmar border, emerged as the hotspot for clashes between security forces and the local Kuki population, who have been resisting increased security presence in the area.⁷ On 17 January, Kuki assailants attacked security posts, reportedly killing two Meitei police officers. In retaliation, police commandos indiscriminately fired at Kuki settlements and set ablaze several properties. Locals claimed that they were working in tandem with Meitei militiamen.⁸

The situation in Manipur remains tense, with deep distrust between the two communities — who live in almost complete segregation — and little prospect of a political settlement. On 24 January, Arambai Tenggol, a Meitei militia, “summoned” all elected Meitei legislators and forced them to sign a charter of demands, which included the removal of Scheduled Tribe designation for “illegal migrants,” a reference to the Kuki tribal group and one of the triggers for the current crisis.⁹ Manipur’s chief minister, from the Bharatiya Janata Party, was also a signatory.¹⁰ Meanwhile, amid claims that Myanmar-based armed groups were helping fuel the conflict, the Indian home minister announced plans to end the existing free movement agreement between the two countries.¹¹

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Myanmar: Fighting intensified in southern Shan and Chin states

On 12 January, the Myanmar army and the Brotherhood Alliance — a coalition of ethnic armed groups battling with the military — agreed to a ceasefire during talks mediated by China. The Haigeng Agreement, whose name derives from the hotel in the Chinese city of Kunming that hosted the talks, precipitated a 40% decrease in political violence compared to the month prior in northern Shan state, home to intense fighting in recent months. This lull in fighting, however, did not extend to other states. In southern Shan state, fresh violence broke out between the Pa-Oh National Liberation Organization/Pa-Oh National Liberation Army (PLNO/PNLA) and the combined force of military and Pa-Oh National Organization/Pa-Oh National Army (PNO/PNA) people’s militia, after the latter stopped five PNLO/PNLA vehicles that were reportedly carrying weapons on the Hsihseng-Loikaw road in Hopong township. Fighting expanded to Hsihseng township, where PNLO/PNLA and its allies captured two military bases and a police station in the second half of January. The military responded with artillery shelling, over 20 airstrikes, and dropped over 100 bombs, killing at least two civilians.¹² The PNLO/PNLA is a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement signatory that recently openly joined the fight against the military.

The United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, continued fighting against the military in southern Chin state. Fighting persisted in Paletwa township throughout January, a strategic location that borders Bangladesh and India. With a vow to eradicate the military’s presence in the region, the ULA/AA seized all 24 military bases in the region, forcing hundreds of military troops to flee to neighboring India’s Mizoram state.¹³ India responded by saying it plans to erect a fence at the country’s border with Myanmar and suspend a Free Movement Regime between the two countries.¹⁴ The ULA/AA’s claim of territorial control over Paletwa also stirred tensions between Chin local resistance groups. On 24 January, fighting broke out between the Maraland Defense Force, backed by the ULA/AA, and the combined force of Chin National Army (CNA) and Chinland Defense Force — Mara (CDF-Mara) nearby Lalengpi town, resulting in two fatalities.

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North Korea: North Korea ramps up military drills and weapons testing

In January, tensions in the Korean peninsula rose as North Korea continued to ramp up weapons developments and test launches. Between 5 and 7 January, North Korea fired hundreds of artillery shells off the country’s west coast in violation of the 2018 inter-Korean agreement.¹⁵ Following these drills, North Korea launched multiple test launches of advanced weaponry. In its first ballistic missile test of the year, North Korea launched a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile with hypersonic capabilities on 14 January. In addition, a nuclear-capable underwater drone was also fired on 19 January. North Korea also launched cruise missiles into the sea on 24, 25, 28, and 30 January. The tests have come as tensions peak on the Korean peninsula ahead of South Korea’s parliamentary elections in April, reaching their most elevated levels in years. North Korea has rapidly advanced its weapons development at an unprecedented rate, accompanied by nuclear threats directed at the US, South Korea, and Japan.¹⁶

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Papua New Guinea: Country descends into chaos during police strike

Deadly rioting led to at least 25 reported deaths across the country after police and other public sector employees went on strike and staged a march to the parliament in the capital, Port Moresby. During the march, on 10 January, some demonstrators overran the gate of the parliament building and torched a car outside the compound. Public sector employees launched their strike after seeing their latest paychecks were reportedly reduced by up to 50%. The government blamed the cut on a computer glitch, saying that the next month’s payment would fix the error and include the missing salary.¹⁷ The police strike paved the way for looters to raid retail outlets and ATMs across Port Moresby, with some police allegedly encouraging the looting.¹⁸ Rioting spread across the country in a ripple effect, including in Lae, Kokopo, Bulolo, Mdang, Goroka, Kavieng, Kundiawa, and Rabaul. The military was called in to restore order, reportedly alongside some police units back on duty. On 11 January, Prime Minister James Marape declared a 14-day state of emergency in the capital, suspended the chief of police and top bureaucrats in the finance and treasury departments, and announced an investigation into the looting. As a result of the unrest, an estimated 5,000 Papua New Guineans lost their jobs, and many people were unable to access basic goods and medicines as stocks were looted.¹⁹

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South Korea: Violent attacks on politicians ahead of elections in April

In South Korea, two rare acts of violence against politicians took place in January, just months before April’s parliamentary elections. On 2 January, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), was stabbed in the neck by a 67-year-old man. The assailant was apprehended on the scene and later indicted for attempted murder and violating the Public Official Election Act.²⁰ Three weeks later, a ruling People Power Party lawmaker, Bae Hyun-jin, was hit in the head with a rock multiple times by a 15-year-old middle school student. While the exact motive behind these assaults is still under investigation, observers have noted that the attacks come amid heightened political polarization in the country.²¹ South Korean politicians condemned the recent attacks on their associates and underlined the need for action to contain copycat assaults.²² Ahead of the general election in April, police announced the establishment of a task force to improve security for politicians.²³ While acts of political violence are extremely rare in South Korea, election periods have been an exception. Ahead of the country’s previous parliamentary elections in 2020, ACLED records five attacks targeting candidates and their supporters.

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