Regional Overview: Asia-Pacific | May 2023

India: Deadly inter-ethnic clashes lead to a spike in violence in Manipur

Inter-ethnic clashes in India’s northeastern state of Manipur drove a roughly twenty-five-fold increase in political violence in May compared to April. The violence came after the All Tribal Students Union Manipur held a ‘Tribal Solidarity March’ on 3 May to oppose demands by the majority Meitei community to be granted Scheduled Tribe status, which provides certain rights under the constitution.¹Following the march, violent clashes between Meitei and Kuki-Zomi tribal groups erupted in the Bishnupur-Churachandpur area after the Anglo-Kuki Centenary Gate was set ablaze. The violence later spread to other parts of the state, with entire villages burned down and churches attacked. In response to the escalating violence, the government shut down the internet,²deployed additional security forces, and sanctioned ‘shoot-at-sight’ orders,³which have resulted in dozens of fatalities. The situation remains tense, with Kuki groups asking for a separate administration for tribal majority areas and the imposition of President’s rule, which would allow the union government to take over the state government’s functions.⁴Meitei groups have called for the preservation of Manipur’s territorial integrity and an end to tripartite Suspension of Operations agreements between Kuki-Zomi armed groups and the central and state government.⁵Relations between Meiteis and Kuki-Zomi tribes had deteriorated in recent months, as the Bharatiya Janata Party-led state government, headed by a Meitei chief minister, was seen to be pursuing anti-tribal policies under the pretext of ‘anti-encroachment’ and ‘anti-poppy cultivation’ drives.⁶

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Jammu & Kashmir: Increased violence precedes G20 working group meeting in Srinagar

Clashes between India’s security forces and militants in Jammu & Kashmir doubled in May from the previous month, with at least 10 events reported in the region. On 5 May, People’s Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) militants targeted security forces with an IED during a security operation in Rajouri district, reportedly killing five soldiers. This was the second attack in as many months by the PAFF, which emerged in 2020 and is believed to be linked to the Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad.⁷The uptick in violence in the region came ahead of a G20 working group meeting held in Srinagar city from 22 to 24 May under India’s presidency. This was the first high-profile international meeting organized in Jammu & Kashmir since 2019, when India ended the state’s special status and brought it under federal control.⁸The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Minority Issues criticized the decision to organize the meeting in Kashmir, noting that the “G20 [was] unwittingly providing a veneer of support to a facade of normalcy” amid “massive human rights violations.”⁹Several countries, including China and Turkey, boycotted the meeting.¹⁰

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Myanmar: Intensified fighting between the military and resistance forces

Fighting in Myanmar between the military and resistance forces intensified in May prior to the start of the rainy season. Violent clashes were reported especially in Kayah state and in Sagaing region. In Kayah state, fighting centered in Demoso township as the military sought to clear a route to transport supplies to their bases in other parts of the state.¹¹Clashes between the military and a combined force of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force and the Karenni Army escalated on 14 May when a military column of around 200 soldiers attacked a village in eastern Demoso township. The fighting continued for 10 consecutive days, with the military frequently launching airstrikes and ground attacks. This resulted in civilian casualties and the destruction of houses and schools,¹²while both sides suffered heavy losses during the clashes.¹³Towards the end of the month, fighting increased in Pekon township in southern Shan state along the border with Kayah state. Fighting is likely to intensify in the area as the military seeks to control the town of Moebye and thus a strategic route to Kayah state.¹⁴

Meanwhile, in Banmauk township in Sagaing region bordering Kachin state, fighting between the military and resistance forces increased in May. A joint force of the military and the Shanni Nationalities Army engaged in eight consecutive days of fighting with a combined force of the Kachin Independence Army, the People’s Defense Force, and the Banmauk Revolution.¹⁵The fighting broke out on 18 May after resistance forces intercepted a combined military column comprising two light infantry divisions conducting clearance operations.¹⁶The military began launching airstrikes around 20 May, reportedly in response to suffering heavy losses during the clashes.¹⁷Banmauk township, which is under martial law, is considered a stronghold of the resistance.¹⁸

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Pakistan: Violent Demonstrations Follow Former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Arrest

Former Prime Minister and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan was arrested on 9 May on corruption charges, before being granted bail three days later after the Supreme Court declared his arrest to be illegal. In response to his arrest, PTI supporters mobilized across Pakistan throughout the month, driving a 49% increase in overall demonstration activity compared to the month prior. In several places, the demonstrations turned violent, with attacks on police and targeting of military and government property, including the houses of high-ranking military officers. Police subsequently launched a crackdown on the PTI, arresting thousands of activists and senior party members. Those accused of attacking security installations will face trial in military courts.¹⁹Under pressure from authorities, dozens of senior party members also resigned.²⁰For his part, Khan has alleged that the violence during the demonstrations was a staged attempt by the government and military to discredit the PTI.²¹In addition to several corruption cases, Khan now faces ‘terrorism’ charges related to the violent demonstrations.²²A criminal conviction could potentially disqualify Khan from contesting general elections, which are scheduled for later this year.²³

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Papua New Guinea: Protests triggered by the signing of US defense pact

Protests were held across Papua New Guinea after the government signed a new bilateral defense cooperation agreement with the United States on 22 May. The agreement will increase the US military presence in the country.²⁴The protests were led by students concerned with the lack of transparency from the government on what the pact would entail, fearing that the agreement would hinder the country’s sovereignty and trigger a response from China.²⁵Leaders of the political opposition expressed concern that Papua New Guinea, the most populous country among Pacific Island states, is becoming a pawn in the geopolitical struggle between the US and China.²⁶China has recently stepped up efforts to gain influence among the Pacific Island countries, including signing a security pact last year with the neighboring Solomon Islands. To counter China’s growing influence, this year the US has moved to strengthen its own ties with a number of countries in the region, including the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Micronesia, and Palau.²⁷The cancellation of US President Joe Biden’s visit – which would have been the first visit of a sitting US president to the country – was seen by some analysts as hindering US efforts to present themselves as a reliable partner in the region.²⁸

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Thailand: Progressive Move Forward Party Wins General Election

General elections on 14 May in Thailand resulted in the Move Forward Party securing 151 out of the 500 seats in the lower house.²⁹This surpassed the perceived frontrunner Pheu Thai Party, led by the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Following the elections, both parties entered into a pact outlining a working agenda for their proposed coalition government. The pact was symbolically signed on the ninth anniversary of the 22 May 2014 coup.³⁰Despite Move Forward’s victory, it faces obstacles created by the 2017 constitution that mandates that army-appointed senators vote for the prime minister to form the government.³¹Amid the declining popularity of pro-military and conservative parties, royalist groups held demonstrations against Move Forward’s calls to reform the lèse-majesté law, which has been used to silence critics of the monarchy.³²Meanwhile, election results in the Deep South saw the Prachachat Party emerge victorious followed by Move Forward. Both political parties have platforms that seek the demilitarization of the area, cessation of martial law enforcement, and advancement of peace negotiations.³³The potential formation of a coalition government led by Move Forward likewise has regional implications for Southeast Asia, as the party’s leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed interest in having Thailand take on a more prominent role in addressing the ongoing violence and humanitarian crises in Myanmar.³⁴

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