Regional Overview: Europe & Central Asia | November 2023

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Armenia-Azerbaijan: Relative calm amid attempts to kickstart peace talks

Armenian-Azerbaijani borders continued to experience relative calm in November. Armenia accused Azerbaijani forces of engaging in small-arms fire on 18 November toward its positions in the Ararat region bordering the Azerbaijani Nakhchivan exclave, leaving one Armenian serviceman injured. Azerbaijan denied the allegation. The situation in the former ethnic Armenian majority Artsakh enclave in Azerbaijan was likewise calm, with Russian peacekeepers continuing to dismantle their observation posts and returning weapons and equipment to Russia, reportedly for repairs.¹ There were sightings of infantry fighting vehicles bearing the insignia of the former Artsakh paramilitary force being moved as part of the process.² Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev staged a military parade in the former Artsakh capital Stepanakert (Khankendi in Azerbaijani) on the anniversary of the second Karabakh war and professed to have no claims on Armenian territory,³ while the foreign ministry repeatedly mentioned eight Azerbaijani exclaves stranded in Armenia.⁴ Both Armenia and Azerbaijan continued avoiding Western and Russian-sponsored negotiation opportunities amid rifts with the respective mediators but exchanged peace treaty drafts privately.⁵ Bilateral border delimitation talks on 30 November held out the promise of breaking the stalemate. The Armenian position remains extremely vulnerable as Azerbaijan is keen to extract concessions under the irredentist threat to Armenia while resisting its attempts to internationalize negotiations.⁶

Europe and Central Asia: Community relations tense amid conflict in Gaza

Israel’s ground offensive in the Gaza Strip continued to prompt the mobilization of Palestine and Israel supporters across the continent, though the number of demonstrations decreased by 18% compared with October. In the United Kingdom, a record 300,000 demonstrators turned out for a pro-Palestine march in London on 11 November. Albeit mostly peaceful, the event was marred by an attempted disruption by far-right activists and violent football fans clashing with police, who made 126 arrests. In addition, a group of 150 masked pro-Palestine supporters broke from the main group and detonated fireworks, leading to further arrests.⁷ On the same day, in France, up to 60 hooded members of the Guignol Squad far-right group armed with wooden sticks and fireworks attempted to storm a conference in Lyon on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Though private security managed to keep them out of the building, three people in the audience were injured.⁸ Earlier in Lyon a man stabbed a Jewish woman after breaking into her apartment. He sprayed a swastika on the front door.⁹ The victim survived. On 12 November, over 180,000 people turned out for rallies called by authorities against antisemitism across France amid a surge in hate crime.¹⁰

Greece: Police shooting prompts mob violence

Tensions spiked in Greece related to police and far-right violence. The fatal police shooting of a Roma teenager under unclear circumstances after a car chase in Aliartos, near Thiva in central Greece on 11 November prompted several week-long riots. This reaction is reminiscent of the unrest seen following a similar incident in France last June and in Thessaloniki, Greece, in December 2022. Rioters, including members of the Roma community, disrupted road traffic by setting up roadblocks, hurling stones and petrol bombs or cans, and setting ablaze tires and garbage bins, mostly in areas close to the shooting. The Aliartos mayor’s face was injured from an object hurled at him while attempting to calm down the crowd.¹¹

Ireland and France: Surge in far-right violence

Against the backdrop of rising communal tensions across the region, Dublin saw its worst riot in recent years after a naturalized Irish citizen stabbed three children and a woman near a school on 23 November. Egged on by online speculation about the country of origin of the attacker (whose motives remain unknown), up to 300 far-right rioters converged on the crime scene where they clashed with police, torched buses and police vehicles, as well as looted shops chanting anti-immigrant slogans. Police arrested 34 people.¹²

Spain: Demonstrations against amnesty for Catalan separatists

A deal to grant amnesty to hundreds of people linked to the 2017 independence referendum in Catalonia, including self-exiled former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont,¹⁷ in exchange for votes for a Socialist-led minority government prompted mass demonstrations across Spain throughout November. These demonstrations drove an 89% increase in demonstration events compared to October. The deal allowed incumbent Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to form a minority government on 16 November with the left-wing Sumar coalition alongside votes from regional parties, including the Catalan pro-independence parties, Esquerra Republicana, and Junts per Catalunya.¹⁸

Ukraine: Russian assault on Avdiivka continues amid ongoing Black Sea strikes

Russian forces continued their mostly infantry-led offensive on Avdiivka, a town in a Ukrainian-controlled pocket north of Donetsk city, despite incurring heavy losses.²⁰ They overran an industrial zone on the southeastern edge of the town and expanded their foothold north of it, while also launching additional offensives on the eastern outskirts. Russian forces also marginally advanced around Bakhmut in the Donetsk region and east of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region, with fighting intensifying in both areas. Ukrainian forces maintained their bridgehead on the Russian-occupied southern bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region between Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka but struggled to move armored vehicles and artillery across the river while Russian forces were unable to eject Ukrainian units.