Regional Overview: Latin America and the Caribbean | January 2024

Bolivia: Increasing political tensions drive increased demonstration activity

Worsening divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales supporters led to an almost tripling of demonstration activity throughout the country in January — at 171 events — compared to the previous month. Morales’ supporters, mostly coca leaf farmers and other farmer groups, installed roadblocks across six regions, demanding the removal of Constitutional Court (TPC) magistrates and their replacement via judicial elections. Although most of the demonstrations were peaceful, almost one in every 10 ended with a clash between pro-Morales and anti-Morales groups or between demonstrators and police in Chuquisaca, Cochabamba, La Paz, Oruro, and Santa Cruz departments. In December, the TCP ruled that the Bolivian constitution only allows re-election once, preventing Morales from running for a fourth term in the 2025 general elections.¹ Tensions between Arce and Morales, who are battling for control of the MAS party, have been increasing over the last months since Morales announced his presidential candidacy in September 2023.²

Colombia: Recently elected local government officials continue to be targeted as they take office

At least 10 local officials were victims of attacks in January, as many took office after being elected during the October 2023 regional elections. On 6 January, assailants from the Los Palmeños gang kidnapped the registrar for the Chocó department. The Los Palmeños gang is a local organization with ties to the National Liberation Army (ELN) that, according to the Attorney General’s office, is increasingly outsourcing kidnappings amidst talks with the government and despite publicly committing to stop this practice.³ However, the ELN’s involvement remains unclear. On the same day, gunmen attacked the newly sworn-in mayor of Tumaco, Nariño. In Valle del Cauca, at least three mayors and municipal council members have also received threats from armed groups following the killing of a councilman in Tuluá on 31 December, a day before starting his third consecutive term.⁴ 

Colombia’s Pacific region has been a hotbed of violence against political figures who have opposed criminal interests and showcased strength to the government. These attacks are attributed to rebels and criminal armed groups active in the region. Although ceasefires with the Central General Staff dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia and the ELN were extended, these attacks continued, challenging the government’s ‘Total Peace’ strategy to end Colombia’s armed conflicts through negotiations. Moreover, these events confirm an increase of violence targeting local officials around local electoral cycles: ACLED records 151 events in 2023, when local elections were held, compared to 66 in 2022.

Costa Rica and Nicaragua: Repression of Nicaraguan dissidents continues at home and abroad

On 14 January, the Nicaraguan government released Bishop Rolando José Álvarez along with 18 other detained priests and expelled them from the country.⁵ Álvarez was arrested in 2022 and sentenced in February 2023 to 26 years in jail on charges of conspiracy to undermine national integrity and propagation of fake news, after refusing a first attempt to expel him along with 222 other political prisoners who were sent to the US and stripped of their nationality.⁶ Reports have counted 740 government actions against Catholic leaders since April 2018 in retaliation for their apparent support of the 2018 anti-government demonstrations.⁷ Meanwhile, concerns over repression against President Daniel Ortega’s opponents spread beyond the border following an attack against prominent Nicaraguan dissident Joao Maldonado on 10 January by unidentified perpetrators in San José, Costa Rica. Maldonado protested against Ortega’s government in 2018, and authorities later accused him of the murder of public officials,⁸ forcing him to flee the country. ACLED records five attacks targeting Nicaraguan activists and politicians living in Costa Rica between January 2018 and 2024.

Ecuador: The government declares a state of internal armed conflict

On 8 January, President Daniel Noboa issued a state of emergency following the escape of Los Choneros gang leader Jose Adolfo Macías, known as Fito, from a prison in the Guayas province.⁹ The measure sparked a wave of gang violence throughout the country, with at least 16 prison riots recorded across nine provinces, coordinated explosive attacks, police kidnappings, and even the invasion of a live TC Television broadcast in Guayaquil. In response to the surge of gang violence, Noboa declared the country in a state of armed conflict on 9 January, identifying 22 criminal organizations as “terrorist organizations” and authorizing the military to combat them.¹⁰ Authorities reported the arrest of 5,000 people linked to the gangs in January. Public acts of violence have not ceased, however, including the killing of a state attorney who was investigating the takeover of TC Television by Chone Killers gang hitmen.¹¹ President Noboa’s response comes amid increasing violence in and outside jails driven by disputes between criminal groups over the control of drug-trafficking routes and other illicit economies. The state’s militarization has raised concerns about further spikes in gang violence and human rights abuses,¹² and prompted neighboring Peru to declare a state of emergency in five border departments.¹³

Haiti: Rebel leader stirs anti-government demonstrations across the country

Calls for a rebellion to oust Prime Minister Ariel Henry by Guy Philippe, former police officer and rebel leader, prompted a five times spike in demonstrations in January compared to the month prior. Philippe returned to Haiti from the United States in November 2023 after serving a sentence for money laundering.¹⁴ Philippe has declared he would not seek to seize power with force but claimed that if popular mobilization forced Henry out of office, “it would be a legitimate coup.”¹⁵ Almost half of the 86 demonstration events recorded in January turned violent, including some when violence was used against protesters. On 22 January, unidentified gunmen shot and killed at least four demonstrators in Jeremie. In Ouanaminthe, police officers clashed with members of the Surveillance Brigade for Protected Areas — an armed brigade affiliated with the Ministry of Environment — which has sworn allegiance to Philippe and mobilized over the dismissal of their director by Henry’s government in an attempt to retake control of these units.¹⁶ The wave of unrest in Haiti highlights the widespread popular discontent toward Henry that Philippe is trying to capitalize on. Such unrest is likely to grow after 7 February, the date by which Henry was supposed to leave power according to an agreement he signed with representatives of political parties, civil society organizations, and the private sector on 21 December 2022.¹⁷ Against this backdrop, the ACLED CAST tool foresees an increase in political violence, particularly violence against civilians, in the next couple of months.

Mexico: Conflict between CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel intensifies in Chiapas state

A turf war between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the Sinaloa Cartel drove a 40% increase in violence compared to the previous month, resulting in some of the highest levels of violence recorded in Chiapas in recent years. On 4 January, a clash between the criminal organizations in Chicomuselo left at least 20 people dead, including civilians. The violence followed an attempt by the Sinaloa Cartel to seize CJNG-controlled baryte mines in the area. Following violence recorded in Chicomuselo and at least three other nearby municipalities, around 2,300 residents fled the area.¹⁸ Some residents also blocked roads and even clashed with military forces trying to pass through the area, denouncing their abuses, while military officers have accused residents of colluding with criminals.¹⁹ Against a backdrop of intense fighting between the cartels, attacks against civilians, including the killing of an Indigenous leader in Tila and a mayoral candidate in Suchiate, have also continued at high levels.