Regional Overview: Latin America & the Caribbean | October 2023

Argentina: Sergio Massa and Javier Milei head to a runoff

On 22 October, Economy Minister Sergio Massa, running with the Peronist center-left Unión por la Patria (UP), defied expectations by winning 36% of the votes in the polarized presidential election’s first round. This result sets up a runoff with far-right candidate Javier Milei, who garnered 30% of the vote, scheduled for 19 November.¹ Social actors and Massa’s opponents have notably criticized him for failing to stem Argentina’s economic crisis, with inflation at nearly 140%.² Meanwhile, Milei’s libertarian agenda promoting drastic cuts to public spending has appealed to voters in search of an alternative to Argentina’s two-coalition model. However, some of his controversial proposals sparked opposition from various sectors of society in the months leading up to the vote.³

Argentina’s presidential race takes place against the backdrop of an acute economic crisis. In 2023, demands related to economic hardship and job security have mobilized the population, including social organizations affiliated with the Piquetero Unit, which have showcased their mobilizing power and capacity for disruption through roadblocks.⁴ Although demonstrations have decreased between January and October 2023 compared to years prior, the 13% increase in violent or destructive demonstrations compared to 2022 reflects the use of roadblocks and flaming barricades as a collective action tactic.⁵ The winner of the runoff will face the daunting task of unifying Argentina’s polarized society. The anticipated inability of the future president to curb Argentina’s economic crisis and unpopular reforms could generate an escalation of demonstrations. Similarly, the response to mobilization could also impact the magnitude of demonstrations. While Massa stated that state forces should only be deployed to repress demonstrations as a last resort, Mileil has hinted that he could criminalize the use of roadblocks as a collective action tactic, echoing similar reforms to the Constitution of the Jujuy Province.

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Brazil: Arson attacks stun Rio’s West Zone amid surging violence

On 23 October, the police militia led by Luís Antônio Braga da Silva, also known as Zinho, set fire to at least 35 buses in Rio de Janeiro in response to the killing of Zinho’s nephew and militia leader in a police operation. The unrest led to a partial paralysis of activities in the West Zone of the city, highlighting the militia’s influence over the area. These attacks reflect growing violence in Rio’s West Zone driven by territorial disputes between militias and drug gangs that have sought control over the area.⁶ Such turf wars also led to the killing of three doctors on 5 October in the upper-class Barra de Tijuca neighborhood in Rio’s West Zone, after the Red Command confused one of the victims for a militia member. Between January and October 2023, violence involving police militias and drug trafficking groups in Rio de Janeiro’s West Zone increased by over 60% compared to the same period in 2022. While police militias originally formed as self-defense forces in impoverished neighborhoods in response to drug trafficking groups, they have since evolved into criminal enterprises involved in illicit activities that regulate civilians’ lives in neighborhoods under their control.⁷

The arson attacks further prompted the government to announce the strengthening of security at ports and airports in Rio de Janeiro and Sāo Paulo and the involvement of federal and military forces to fight organized crime.⁸ The success of the security plan, however, remains uncertain amid questions about the distribution of responsibility and collaboration between federal and local security forces.⁹

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Ecuador: Unknown perpetrators kill hitmen arrested for Villavicencio’s assassination

On 15 October, businessman Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s snap presidential election following a campaign centered around security amid rising organized crime activity and violence (for more, see The Killing of Villavicencio: A Symptom of Rising Political Violence Ahead of Ecuador’s Snap Elections). His victory comes a little over a week after unidentified perpetrators killed six inmates linked to the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in a prison in Guayaquil. Although the perpetrators of the killing remain unknown, some speculate that the attack could have been part of gang rivalry or an attempt to silence key witnesses in Villavicencio’s assassination.¹⁰ The incident is symptomatic of the crisis in the country’s penitentiary system, home to increasingly deadly violence. It also points to the pervasiveness of criminal groups within state institutions, illustrated by the government’s decision to press negligence charges against the prison’s director.¹¹

In order to curb rising violence, Noboa has adopted an increasingly hardline stance against crime throughout his campaign, proposing a security plan relying on crime-fighting technology, the building of prison ships, and the militarization of security.¹² The plan, however, could be too ambitious with Noboa’s mandate only lasting until May 2025. Its successful implementation will also depend on Noboa’s ability to form coalitions with other political forces to offset the Citizen’s Revolution Movement opposition block.

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Guatemala: Attorney-General’s alleged interference in election results sparks record demonstration levels

Pro-democracy demonstrations were held throughout October in Guatemala. These demonstrations were organized in response to attempts by Attorney-General Consuelo Porras and members of the Prosecutor’s Office to interfere with the victory of President-elect Bernardo Arévalo, notably through the suspension of his Semilla Movement for alleged irregularities.¹³ On 2 October, the Indigenous organization 48 Cantones de Totonicapán called for a national strike, rallying various organizations across the country. During the strike, demonstrators participated in roadblocks that lasted for 20 consecutive days until Indigenous authorities announced their end on 22 October, calling for continued demonstrations in Guatemala City outside of Porras’s office.¹⁴ The mobilization drove a nine times increase in demonstrations in October compared to the previous month, reaching the highest recorded levels since ACLED began coverage in 2018. Tensions between demonstrators and opponents of the movement spilled over into violence, with several incidents involving residents and gunmen attacking demonstrators as they tried to pass the roadblocks. The violence culminated on 16 October in the San Marcos department when armed suspects attacked demonstrators in at least three roadblocks, leaving several injured and killing a man in Malacatán. Although the identity of the perpetrators remains unknown, police arrested 11 suspects, including private guards of a mayor-elect for the government party Vamos.¹⁵

Although the courts ratified Arévalo’s victory — thus guaranteeing his inauguration in January 2024 — on 2 November, the Supreme Electoral Court’s Citizens Registry suspended the legal status of the Semilla Movement over alleged irregularities during its creation. The move will likely compromise party members’ access to positions it won during the elections and could fuel additional unrest.¹⁶

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Mexico: Civil servants targeted in Guerrero

In Guerrero state, armed suspects ambushed and killed 13 police officers, including the head of the municipal police in Coyuca Benitez. Authorities have raised the possibility that the attack could be linked to La Familia Michoacana criminal group’s expansion to new areas in Guerrero following the similar killing of a delegate of the General Attorney’s Office and a regional prosecutor in September.¹⁷ The event takes place amid increasing violence targeting local officials in the state thus far in 2023 compared to the previous year, with targeted attacks between January and October 2023 surpassing levels recorded in all of 2022. The violence has concentrated in municipalities within and around the Tierra Caliente region — comprising municipalities in the Guerrero, Michoacán, and Mexico states — where La Familia Michoacana and several other criminal groups are fighting over the control of extortion and drug trafficking routes. In response to the violence, the State Attorney General’s Office of Guerrero suspended its activities in the Tierra Caliente for the safety of its staff.¹⁸

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Panama: Demonstrators clash with police during mobilization against mining contract

The signing of a new mining contract between Panama’s government and the Canadian company First Quantum Minerals drove a spike in demonstrations, reaching the highest level recorded in 2023. Members of the Single Union of Construction and Associated Workers (SUNTRAC), other labor unions, and environmentalists have opposed the agreement, denouncing its negative environmental impact and claiming it undermines the country’s sovereignty.¹⁹ Demonstrations intensified after Congress ratified the agreement on 20 October, with events recorded across the country. In the Chiriquí, Colón, Panamá, West Panamá, and Veraguas provinces, rioters engaged in clashes with police forces, looted stores, and barricaded roads with burning tires. Police forces deployed tear gas and fired rubber bullets to disperse the demonstrators, while some reports suggest that officers also used firearms,²⁰ leaving around 13 demonstrators injured and hundreds in police detention.²¹

In 2017, the Supreme Court ruled the previous mining agreement proposal unconstitutional due to its negative environmental impact, forcing the Canadian company to renegotiate with the government.²² However, the government claims that the new contract offers better environmental guarantees and will lead to the creation of over 9,000 employment opportunities.²³ Critics denounced the new agreement for having conditions similar to the previous one, and accused members of Congress who approved the contract of collusion with the company.²⁴ In response to the unrest, the President announced a referendum to decide the future of the mining contract and on 3 November, adopted a moratorium on new mining explorations.²⁵

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