Regional Overview: Middle East | February 2023

Turkey: Mob attacks and violence targeting civilians increase in the aftermath of the 6 February earthquakes

On 6 February, two devastating earthquakes struck southern Turkey and northern Syria. In Turkey, the earthquakes left widespread property damage, a death toll of over 44,000,¹ and caused the displacement of 2.2 million people.² Two further quakes of lesser magnitude affected the country on 20 and 27 February. In the aftermath of the earthquakes, political violence slightly increased compared to the month of January, driven by mob violence directed against looters and Syrian refugees, with an anti-Syrian sentiment being fuelled by far-right ultranationalists.³ Mob violence and violence against civilian events increased around three and two times, respectively, compared to the monthly average of the year prior. In addition, at least five clashes between Gendarmerie forces and escaped prisoners were recorded in the southern Malatya, Hatay, and Kahramanmaras provinces.

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Syria: Political violence declines across all frontlines after the earthquakes

In Syria, disorder declined to its lowest levels in the last five years following the major earthquakes that severely affected the country’s northwest — especially Aleppo and Idlib provinces — on 6 February. Political violence decreased across all frontlines. Turkish activity in the north and northeastern provinces of Aleppo, al-Raqqa, and al-Hasaka dropped by over 80% compared to the month prior, mostly as a consequence of reduced confrontations between Turkish forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the People’s Protection Units. Concurrently, armed activity dropped by around 70% in the northwestern rebel-held Idlib province. Regime forces have been fighting opposition rebels and Islamist factions in a long-term conflict localized in the country’s northwest since 2011. In recent years, Turkish forces supporting the rebels have entered into a conflict with Syrian Kurdish forces to counter Kurdish separatist aspirations.

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Iraq: Violence continues at low levels in Iraqi Kurdistan despite PKK militants calling for post-earthquake ceasefire with Turkey

In the wake of the earthquakes that struck Syria and Turkey, Cemil Bayık, executive council co-chair of the Kurdistan Communities Union, called for a unilateral ceasefire with Turkish forces on 10 February to facilitate rescue operations. The appeal was endorsed by the Kurdish People’s Defence Centre, the military wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), leading to a complete halt of PKK shelling activity in Iraq during February.⁴

Contrastingly, Turkish shelling and airstrikes continued targeting PKK forces throughout February. Despite the PKK’s declaration of a ceasefire, Turkey resumed airstrikes on 10 February, following a pause in the immediate aftermath of the earthquakes, although without returning to pre-earthquake levels. Overall, Turkish airstrike events reached their lowest level recorded by ACLED since March 2021. Similarly, Turkish shelling and clashes with PKK militants continued throughout February, albeit nearly halving compared to the month prior. Turkey and the PKK are engaged in a long-standing conflict over ethnic rights in southeastern Turkey and across the border in Iraq and Syria.

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Israel: Nationwide demonstrations against Netanyahu’s judiciary reforms

Thousands of Israelis took to the streets across the country to demonstrate against the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his plans to overhaul the Israeli judiciary. Demonstrations commenced in early January 2023, shortly after Netanyahu’s cabinet announced the contours of a contested judiciary reform. They gradually increased in size and scope, with workers in several key industries announcing strikes and up to 100,000 demonstrators taking to the streets on a weekly basis across Israel in an unprecedented wave of protests since the anti-Netanyahu demonstrations of 2020–21.⁵ In February 2023, anti-Netanyahu demonstrations increased by over 180% compared to the month of January, which registered 78 events. The Netanyahu government took office in December 2022, supported by far-right nationalist and religious allies. It recently approved an overhaul of Israel’s Supreme Court which could alter the balance of state powers.

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Palestine: Tensions in the West Bank continue amid increasing lethality of political violence

Following a record-high level of reported fatalities in January 2023, heightened tensions between Palestinians and Israelis continued in the West Bank in February. While the overall number of reported fatalities fell, violence became more lethal. At least four ‘lone wolf’ attacks by Palestinians and Israel Arabs took place in East Jerusalem, resulting in the reported death of five Israelis, including two children and one border policeman. Meanwhile, on 22 February, Israeli forces reportedly killed at least 11 Palestinians and wounded hundreds during a raid to apprehend three wanted Palestinian militants in Nablus. Among those killed in the raid were several civilians and members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, the Lion’s Den, and other militant groups.⁶ The Israeli raid was the deadliest in the West Bank since 2005.⁷ Since late 2022, Israel has engaged in security campaigns in the West Bank in response to a series of deadly attacks carried out by Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. Violence also spilled over beyond the West Bank, with Israeli aircraft targeting Hamas military sites in Gaza, while Palestinian armed groups fired rockets and anti-aircraft missiles at southern Israel from the Gaza Strip.

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